O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 8

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Eagles @ Commanders

The Lane Johnson injury scare was, luckily, short-lived, as the All-Pro right tackle came off the injury report ahead of the team’s Week 7 game and allowed only two pressures against the Miami Dolphins. This is now five out of six games in which he has allowed two or fewer pressures (not counting his nine-snap ankle injury in Week 6), and he hasn’t been notched with a sack allowed since the 2020 season.

While we continue to wait for another big DeVonta Smith game—and some of us just keep rolling him out in DFS in hopes that we catch it—the main beneficiary of Jalen Hurts operating out of a clean pocket has been A.J. Brown. Brown is second to only Tyreek Hill in receiving yards (628) and intended air yards (628) when their quarterback is not pressured and ranks fourth in receptions (45).

While the Commanders have a much more formidable pass rush now that Chase Young has been able to stay on the field, the team ranks a modest 14th in pressure rate (35.7%) and has faced off against the Bears and Giants offensive lines in two of the last three weeks, two teams that rank 31st and 32nd in pressure rate allowed. In these teams’ Week 4 matchup, Hurts did absorb three sacks, but only one of which was credited to an offensive lineman (Jordan Mailata). Hurts would go on to eclipse 300 yards, throw two touchdowns, and rush six times for 34 more yards. Both of those touchdowns and 175 yards went to Brown, while Smith accrued a 7-78 line on eight targets.

All three offensive pieces should be heavily targeted in all fantasy formats.

Cowboys vs. Rams

The Rams still boast one of the most terrifying presences on their defensive front, in Aaron Donald, but outside of himself (35) and Byron Young (28), no one else on the team has more than 16 pressures on the season (Michael Hoecht), resulting in the 22nd-highest QB pressure rate (33.3%) and 24th-ranked adjusted sack rate (6.5%). Neutralizing Donald is a nearly impossible task as he continues to play at an incredibly high level in his age-32 season. Still, it has happened twice in the 2023 campaign, both resulting in losses against teams with very good-to-elite offensive lines; the 49ers (with a healthy Trent Williams) in Week 2 and the Eagles in Week 5 held him to three combined pressures and zero sacks, the only two games on the season in which he had less than five pressures.

The Cowboys are one of the only offensive line units in the league with multiple options that can match up with Donald, regardless of where he lines up. What’s more, Dallas’ notoriously injury-prone O-Line is at full health, coming out of a bye. Something we should try to take advantage of before the window closes again.

This should be a great spot for both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, who haven’t been pillars of fantasy success while the offense has found themselves in very unique game scripts on multiple occasions this season. A 40-0 or 38-3 blowout win is (hopefully) not in the cards against this robust Rams passing attack, so Prescott and the Cowboys should have to keep their foot on the pedal throughout.

Colts vs. Saints

After a down year and a half for the Colts offensive line, they have been able to put their struggles behind them, becoming a strength of the team once again. This week, they’ll take on a Saints defense that ranks 26th in QB pressure rate (31.7%) and adjusted sack rate (6.4%), looking like a more vulnerable defense in these last two weeks, allowing 20 and 31 points to the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, with six of those points coming on a Foyesade Oloukun pick-six against Derek Carr.

Maybe the better news for fantasy purposes, beyond the matchup, is the fact that the coaching staff has had no problem with letting Gardner Minshew throw the ball around at a higher level than we would have thought with the success of Zach Moss and the return of Jonathan Taylor. Over Minshew’s three full-game starts, he has dropped back to pass an average of 46.6 times—a mark that would lead the league if extrapolated for more games—eclipsing 300 yards on two occasions, adding in five scrambles for 33 yards and two rushing touchdowns. This equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game, a fringe top-ten mark.

Both Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are solid WR3 plays this week, and both have the ability to pop for 20+ point performances.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Giants vs. Jets

It’s typically been the New York Giants on the other end of these defensive matchups, but it’s begun to get a little redundant, typing “just stream against the Giants” every week. Let’s dig a little deeper since the Jets are rostered in 86% of Yahoo leagues and cost a pretty penny in DFS this week ($4,000 on DK/$4,400 on FD).

The Giants may be unanimously the worst or very near it in every metric or ranking system you choose to ingest, but that’s not to say that the Jets are that far behind. The Jets are currently dead last in Sports Info Solutions’ blown block rate (4.09%) while ranking 30th in QB pressure rate allowed (43.2%) and 28th in adjusted sack rate (9.59%). Despite having a moderate time to pressure mark on the season (2.50 - 19th), Zach Wilson holds on to the ball at the ninth-longest rate (2.74) and delivers the ball to his first read on only 58.2% of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest mark among 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

This wouldn’t be a big deal if he were Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but no one is confusing Wilson’s play-making ability with an elite quarterback. Rather, Wilson is compounding issues with his offensive line by taking a sack on 21.7% of the pressures he faces, the seventh-highest mark in the league. The Giants’ D/ST has a built-in floor in a game with the second-lowest projected total of Week 8 (36.5).

Falcons @ Titans

In Week 8’s lowest total of the week, the Atlanta Falcons will make the short trip to Tennessee to take on a rudderless Titans offense. Though the team has decided to rotate Andre Dillard onto the bench in favor of second-year man Nicholas Petit-Frere, it’s not a move that inspires much confidence. Dillard had allowed a whopping 26 pressures and seven sacks through 5.5 games; Petit-Frere didn’t fare much better in his Week 6 relief duty, allowing four pressures and two sacks in 17 pass-blocking opportunities.

Tennessee ranks in the bottom five in each of adjusted sack rate (11.59% - 29th), QB pressure rate allowed (41.8% - 28th), and blown block percentage (3.73% - 30th). They will now be blocking for rookie second-round selections Will Levis and Malik Willis while Ryan Tannehill is sidelined. This game will likely be a slog, allowing us to fire up the Falcons D/ST and safely watch the game from afar.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Chiefs @ Broncos

The Broncos' defense has shown up over the last two games, holding both the Green Bay Packers and these Kansas City Chiefs to under 20 points. While simple improvement is well within the range of possibilities for the Broncos after they allowed an average of 41 points to opponents over a month-long span, I’m willing to bet on Isiah Pacheco in this matchup.

In Week 6, the Chiefs accrued 22 first downs despite going 4-13 on third down conversions (30.7%) and continually stalled out near the red zone, leading to four Harrison Butker field goals. Pacheco still finished the week as the RB14, catching all six of his targets and rushing for 62 yards. Even with the positive regression for the Broncos' defense, they still rank 27th in adjusted line yards (4.66), have allowed the most rushing yards (1,171), and have missed the most tackles on rushing plays (73).

For DFS purposes, Pacheco is priced as the RB12 on DraftKings ($6,100) and the RB10 on FanDuel ($7,400), creating plenty of salary wiggle room for a running back with top-five potential.

Lions vs. Raiders

Dan Campbell, a true man of the people, meant what he said when addressing rookie Jahmyr Gibbs’ workload ahead of Week 7, remarking, “Certainly I think he’s going to need to take the load of (the work)….I’d like to say we’re going to be careful with him, but the reality is we need him.”

Gibbs then proceeded to handle 21 opportunities, rushing 11 times for 68 yards and a touchdown, in addition to an incredible ten targets and a 9-58 receiving line. The 12th overall selection of the 2023 NFL Draft eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards for the first time and delivered an overall RB3 fantasy finish in the process. This week, he’ll take on a Raiders team that ranks 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the running back position, ranking 30th in adjusted line yards (4.78).

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson, Commanders
• Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Steelers
• Javonte Williams, Broncos
• Darrell Henderson, Rams