Week 8 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 26, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Buccaneers vs. Bills

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 8 Thursday Night Football, where the Buccaneers head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Both teams are at a critical juncture in their seasons. The Buccaneers, at 3-3, are clinging onto the seventh spot in the NFC playoff race. They'll be playing without a starting offensive lineman and a starting safety, while Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield, officially questionable, are expected to play. On the other side, the Bills are sitting at 4-3, a game behind Miami in the AFC East and also holding the seventh seed in the AFC. They will be without TE Dawson Knox and likely third-string TE Quintin Morris, paving the way for rookie Dalton Kincaid to step up in a major way. Let's delve into this intriguing matchup and see how it shapes up for single-game DFS players.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Buccaneers (+8.5, 17) @ Bills (-8.5, 26.5); Over/Under 43.5

The Buccaneers are in a tough spot, entering as road underdogs by more than a touchdown and carrying a paltry implied team total of just 17 points. Tampa Bay has been league-average in pace of play but ranks slightly above average in pass rate during neutral game scripts. This strategic leaning isn't surprising, given their run game's inefficiency, currently ranking 28th in team true yards per carry. The Bucs are 11th in pace of play and 18th in pass plays per game. They're also middle-of-the-pack in deep passes and red zone attempts. If they're struggling to generate a consistent ground game, as we expect, Tampa Bay may simply be forced to lean even more on the pass, even if it's predictable. This will be especially necessary if they fall behind early.

Conversely, the Bills, favored by more than a touchdown at home, have a healthy implied total of 26.5 points. Somewhat surprisingly, Buffalo has altered its offensive approach slightly this season, focusing more on conservative pass rates, possibly in an attempt to limit turnovers. This strategy has paid dividends in all but the wins category, as Josh Allen's passing metrics have all been elevated, and making the Bills the third-best team in the NFL in offensive touchdowns per game. Overall, they rank 30th in pace of play but 12th in pass plays per game. The Bills compensate for their slower tempo with key situational aggressiveness, ranking top five in both red-zone passes and passes of 20-plus air yards. Allen’s air yards per attempt is the sixth highest in the NFL.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Baker Mayfield has been the epitome of average this season. He ranks 17th in adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), 17th in true passer rating, 16th in fantasy points per game, and 14th in passing touchdowns. His per-drive efficiency, as measured by true Drive Success Rate, is also below league average, and his EPA per game doesn't inspire much confidence. However, he does offer a "more than zero' mobility, ranking 15th (again, average) among QBs in rush yards per game. Given the potent receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, one would expect more from Mayfield, but so far, it's been a middling campaign for him and the Buccaneers. Luckily middling is better than most in the NFC South, where a 9-8 record will likely be all you need for a playoff birth.

On the other hand, Josh Allen is spearheading an offense that appears to be better than the team's record suggests. Allen ranks second in per-pass efficiency (completion percentage vs. expected), fourth in per-drive efficiency, and second in EPA per game. In terms of DVOA, the Bills are second in the NFL in pass DVOA while balancing that with the 10th-best rush DVOA. Allen's elite advanced metrics are plentiful—he ranks eighth in AYA, eighth in true passer rating, third in PlayerProfiler’s accuracy rating, third in fantasy points per dropback, and it's led to the positional lead in fantasy points per game. And despite the Bills trying to limit his rush attempts this season, Allen has still found the end zone four times on rushing attempts, third-most among QBs. Facing a Buccaneers defense that ranks 14th in pass DVOA and 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt, Allen is in a prime position for a bounce-back performance in passing efficiency, and continued success in fantasy scoring.