Fantasy Football Debate: Sam LaPorta vs. Zay Flowers

A wide receiver with immense upside, or a tight end who flashed as a rookie in 2023? In this debate, Justin Edwards argues for Sam LaPorta while Neil Dutton pounds the table for Zay Flowers.

Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | TE Rankings | 7 Tight End SOS Beneficiaries & Ideal Late-Round Pairings

The Case for Sam LaPorta

Justin: Taking an “Elite TE” approach is one of my favorite strategies to employ across nearly any format. The correlation between ADP and half-PPR fantasy points per game is just so, so strong at this position, and the fall-off after the first two tiers of options is annually sharp.

So when my build allows —and nearly any “build” allows— I’m typically hovering over tight ends who can finish as the No. 1 fantasy option at their position when they’re anywhere around their average draft position. In my estimation, those options include Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Sam LaPorta, with the sophomore being my preferred at-cost target.

We’ve been fading rookie tight ends for years now, but that trend has started to flip on its head as options with high real-life draft capital that land on good-to-great offenses have started performing right out of the gate, making players like Eric Ebron a distant memory. LaPorta strung together an 86-889-10 stat line in Year 1, dethroning Travis Kelce as the overall TE1 for only the second time since the 2016 season.

Non-Kelce players have faced an uphill battle to compile back-to-back TE1 performances over the last decade-plus, but that is firmly in the range of outcomes for the Detroit Lion. LaPorta was a consistent contributor throughout the year but finished the season even stronger, scoring 13.7 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 12-18. Even if Jameson Williams settles into a legit WR2 role, there’s a good chance LaPorta will carry that momentum into Year 2.

While ranking sixth in both target share (19.5%) and air yards share (21.6%), he was also second (t-Travis Kelce) in targets from within the opponent’s 10-yard line (10) at the position. This consistent usage in all areas of the field locks him into a very high floor with one of the best ceilings imaginable for the position.

When deciding between a high-end tight end and a wide receiver with a nearly limitless potential in a great offense, I tend to lean toward the former, even if the latter is more exciting.

The Case for Zay Flowers

Neil: Zay Flowers had a great rookie season by most measures, but we were still left wanting more from a player who seemed to have a pretty limited route tree. While there is certainly nothing wrong with having a fantasy asset that the play-callers want to force-feed the ball, 26.9% of Flowers' 2023 targets came from behind the line of scrimmage. It's worth wondering if they just wanted the ball in his hands that bad or if they didn't trust him to do anything else.

The fellow second-year player is the unquestioned No. 1 option in the wide receiver room, but there’s a chance he plays second-fiddle to TE Mark Andrews, who looks to be back to full health heading into 2024. Flowers is attached to MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, who dropped back more than he ever has in the Todd Monken offense, but we need to see more from the explosive receiver before we start snagging him ahead of possible No. 1 overall finishers at “onesie” positions like LaPorta.

You will struggle to find anyone on the planet who has written more about replacement-level tight ends than me over the last decade. That makes what Sam LaPorta did in his rookie season so special - a genuine talent emerging at fantasy sport's most toxic position. That said, in my drafts this summer, I find myself passing on LaPorta and often taking Zay Flowers. It's a choice that Underdog drafters have faced this spring and summer, with LaPorta going off the board on average at pick 36 with Flowers following on at pick 38.

Flowers commanded a 22% target share as a rookie, a workload that saw him average 6.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 53.7 receiving yards. For his part, LaPorta's 19% share brought him 7.1 looks, 5.1 grabs and 52.5 yards. LaPorta did manage 10 receiving touchdowns, while Flowers managed just five. But Flowers did establish nice chemistry with Lamar Jackson, with Jackson averaging a healthy 8.23 adjusted yards per attempt whenever he targeted Flowers. That's not a number to be sniffed at, standing as the fourth-highest among players that Jackson has targeted at least 100 times.

Flowers has spoken of his desire for more deep shots in the passing game, which would almost certainly boost his output and make him more attractive to fantasy managers. Flowers saw 20 deep targets a year ago, 21st among wide receivers. As talented as LaPorta is, he is not a deep threat for the Lions. A few more shots downfield. in addition to an increase in overall targets, should certainly be a massive boost to Flowers' production, given how good he was after the catch as a rookie. He averaged 5.03 yards after the catch per reception in 2023, just 0.01 fewer than CeeDee Lamb.

I believe Flowers is the type of player that will be hard to acquire later in the draft. LaPorta's production can, in all probability, be closely arrived at if you wait a few rounds. In our projections, we have LaPorta with 862 receiving yards. We have George Kittle with 853, and he's going off the boards almost three rounds after LaPorta. A big chunk of LaPorta's appeal comes from touchdowns, especially after scoring 10 times as a rookie. But history is not on his side if you are expecting a repeat. Since the dawn of the 21st century, only nine tight ends have registered an 8% touchdown rate as a rookie (minimum 50 targets). Of the other eight, only three players saw an increase in their total touchdowns a year later, and two only improved by a single score. Rob Gronkowski went from 10 as a rookie to 17 in year two, and it's never a good idea to bank on players copying unicorns.

I would not look down my nose at fantasy managers taking LaPorta and ridding themselves of the need to stream the tight end position after grabbing one of the elite players at the spot. But given an ascending wide receiver, one with the potential to lead his team in targets - which LaPorta is unlikely to do if Amon-Ra St.Brown is fit and healthy - over a tight end inside the first 50 picks of a draft, I will almost certainly take the wide receiver.

But I will never stop loving the tight end position.