A Healthy Joe Burrow is Ready to be a Top-10 Fantasy Quarterback Again

Last season proved to be a disappointing campaign for the Bengals. They had a winning record of 9-8, but they finished in last place in the AFC North and did not make the playoffs. One of the main reasons why they underwhelmed was that injuries limited Joe Burrow to just 10 games. As he looks to get the Bengals back into the playoffs this season, Burrow will also try to work his way back into the top 10 among fantasy quarterbacks.

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Joe Burrow’s Injury-Plagued Season

Things didn’t start out well for Burrow last year as a preseason calf injury put him behind the eightball in terms of preparation. He was able to play in Week 1, but he had a disastrous performance against the Browns in which he completed 14 of 31 pass attempts for 82 yards and no touchdowns. Things didn’t get much better in the following weeks with Burrow combining for 728 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions across his first four games.

Burrow started to turn things around in Week 5, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns versus the Cardinals. That was the beginning of a streak in which he had multiple touchdown passes in five straight games. In three of those five games, he threw for at least 317 yards.

Everything came crashing to a halt for Burrow in Week 11 when he tore a ligament in his right wrist against the Ravens. He would eventually undergo surgery that sidelined him for the rest of the season.

Healthy Offseason

The good news for Burrow entering this season is that he was cleared for full contact right from the beginning of training camp. Given how poorly he looked at the beginning of last season because of his early calf injury, having a full preseason to prepare could be key.

Burrow’s own health isn’t the only important factor for his fantasy value. Tee Higgins had injury issues that limited him to just 12 games. He sat out three games that Burrow played in, including the Week 11 matchup with the Ravens in which Burrow injured his wrist. Higgins didn’t get a contract extension during the offseason, but he’s not going to hold out and enters training camp healthy. In fact, none of the top skill position players on the Bengals entered training camp with injury limitations.

Why Target Joe Burrow?

Burrow has plenty of weapons around him with Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase still in the fold. The Bengals did lose Tyler Boyd, but they selected Jermaine Burton in the third round of the draft, giving them another dangerous deep threat. They also brought in tight end Mike Gesicki, who is known more for his receiving prowess than his blocking abilities. During his three-year stint with the Dolphins, Gesicki finished with an average depth of target of at least 8.7 yards in each campaign.

The Bengals also underwent a change a running back this season, replacing Joe Mixon with Zack Moss. Mixon hasn’t been an efficient runner in recent seasons, but he did log at least 210 carries in each of the last three years. Moss has never had more than 183 carries in a season during his career, so there’s a chance that the Bengals don’t lean as heavily on their run game.

Burrow has a big arm and big-play wide receivers, which made his 6.3 yards per attempt last season so disappointing. In 2021, he averaged 8.9 yards per attempt. An important note is that Burrow averaged 4.8 yards per attempt over his first four games last season. When his health improved, he averaged 7.4 yards per attempt over his final six games. To put that into perspective, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 7.4 or fewer yards per attempt in two of the last three seasons.

Another appealing aspect of Burrow is his multi-site ADP of 61st overall, which makes him QB7. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Mahomes all currently have a multi-site ADP of at least 32, meaning fantasy managers will likely need to select them in the second or third rounds of drafts. Burrow can be had two or three rounds later, allowing managers to load up more at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.

The Bottom Line

Burrow’s calf injury derailed his season last year from the start. His wrist injury was the final straw that broke the camel’s back. Burrow is still in his prime, has a ton of talent around him, and enters training camp this year without any limitations. For fantasy managers who are looking to avoid spending an early pick on the quarterback position, Burrow is someone to target among the second-tier of QB options.