Jake Ferguson is a Boring But Smart Pick in Fantasy Football

Tight end has always been the most frustrating position to deal with in fantasy football. Seemingly every year, it feels impossible to identify which tight ends can become consistent starting options after the first few rounds of your draft. While a popular suggestion to fight this has been to punt on tight end in your draft and simply take a flier or two in the last couple of rounds (if you don’t take one early), I will be advocating for the opposite: here’s why Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson should be your main tight end target in fantasy football this year at his ADP of TE9 and 85th overall.

Click here for more 2024 Player Profiles!

An Impressive 2023 Campaign

Ferguson was selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft but had a quiet rookie year. However, he took quite a leap in his sophomore season. After Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency, Ferguson stepped in as the starting tight end in Dallas and thrived. He racked up 761 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 2023 en route to an overall TE8 finish in fantasy. He added 10 catches, 93 yards, and three touchdowns to his season totals in the Cowboys playoff loss versus the Packers to cap off a Pro Bowl year.

Ferguson’s best ability was his availability last year. He ranked fourth among tight ends in offensive snaps played and was one of only seven tight ends to see 100 targets last season. He showed he was capable of lining up both inline (45% of snaps) and in the slot (44% of snaps), and was the de facto No. 2 option for the Cowboys behind CeeDee Lamb.

Ferguson in the Cowboys Offense

The Cowboys did not make any major changes to their offense at all this season — their only noteworthy move was replacing running back Tony Pollard with old friend Ezekiel Elliott. So, Ferguson should continue to be the second option in the Dallas offense and receive plenty of volume. He proved last year that he was a versatile and dependable tight end, and there is no reason to believe he cannot put up the same output in 2024.

One reason for optimism regarding Ferguson’s ceiling is Dak Prescot’s affinity for the tight end position. Between Jason Witten, Dalton Schultz, and Ferguson, Prescott has given a tight end more than 85 targets in six of the eight seasons of his career. Coming off a second-team All-Pro season and entering a contract year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Prescott has another dominant regular season, elevating the Cowboys offense and Ferguson as a whole.

Assessing Ferguson’s Floor and Ceiling

Overall, I think Ferguson has a very safe floor in fantasy football. Barring injury, he is essentially guaranteed to see another 100 targets, which should be more than enough to make him a weekly top-10 option and a dependable starter. I think he is being drafted around his floor as I struggle to imagine a reality where Ferguson doesn’t finish as a TE1 this year — since 2017, every single tight end who saw at least 100 targets finished top-10 at the position that season.

Admittedly, Ferguson does not have the highest ceiling of all tight ends, but that is why he is being drafted in the ninth round instead of the fourth. Sure, Kyle Pitts could finally put it all together and finish as the TE1, but he could also continue to disappoint and be a waste of a fifth-round draft pick. We avoid that risk with Ferguson. Additionally, If the Cowboys offense remains elite, Ferguson could easily improve his touchdown numbers and become even more fantasy relevant. He could put up similar numbers to someone like Eric Ebron in 2018, who turned 110 targets into 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in Andrew Luck’s last season in the NFL. Ebron was the TE4 that year, which I think is well within the range of outcomes for Ferguson — it is always difficult to project touchdowns for tight ends, but we might as well try to do it for the starting tight end on a top-10 offense in the league attached to an elite quarterback.

Ferguson will not be the flashiest pick of your draft. When you take him, there probably won’t be anybody in your league that has a reaction. But, I believe that “boringness” is a good quality in tight ends. Instead of deluding ourselves into young, potential high-upside guys in the later rounds like Brock Bowers, Luke Musgrave, or Ben Sinnott, I believe you should take someone like Ferguson or David Njoku in the eighth or ninth round and stop worrying about tight end for the rest of your season. This is an ideal middle ground, because you don’t have to sacrifice positional value elsewhere by taking an elite tight end in the early rounds, but still land a set-and-forget TE1 that will allow you to ignore the wasteland that is the tight end waiver wire.

The Bottom Line

• Ferguson is coming off a very solid 2023 season where he finished as the TE8 in fantasy and earned Pro Bowl honors.
• Ferguson should continue to be the No. 2 option for the Cowboys this season and will be among the league leaders in targets at his position because of Dak Prescott’s penchant for throwing to his tight ends.
• Ferguson has a very safe floor in fantasy because of his guaranteed volume, and should easily return TE1 production. His ceiling is likely dependent on his touchdown production, which could certainly see a spike if the Cowboys have another productive offensive season.
• Overall, Ferguson is a great pick at his ADP of TE9 and 85th overall as he allows you to avoid the headache of in-season tight end management while still getting an extremely safe and dependable starter.