Trevor Lawrence Will Continue to Underwhelm Fantasy Managers This Season

The Jaguars locked in their quarterback of the future, signing Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract extension this summer. The former first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has played well enough to earn the extension and doesn’t even turn 25 years old until October. Teams don’t let young quarterbacks with his level of talent hit free agency. However, he has yet to live up to fantasy expectations in his career. Will this finally be the season that he breaks out into a top-10 option?

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Trevor Lawrence Regresses In 2023

Lawrence’s rookie campaign was a disaster from a fantasy perspective. He threw for 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. He cut down on his turnovers the following season, totaling 4,113 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. With him trending in the right direction, big things were expected of him in 2023.

Not only did Lawrence not improve further last season, he actually took a step backward. Turnovers once again became a problem with him throwing 14 interceptions. He also finished with just 4,016 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. He had 10 games in which he threw either one or no touchdown passes. He also had just two games in which he threw for at least 300 yards.

New Wide Receivers

Last season, Calvin Ridley led the Jaguars in receiving yards (1,016) and receiving touchdowns (eight), while finishing second on the team in targets (136) and receptions (76). He departed for the Titans during the offseason, leaving the team with a big hole to fill at the position.

The Jaguars made two key additions at wide receiver this offseason, the most notable of which was the addition of Gabe Davis. Davis is a deep threat, averaging 16.7 yards per reception for his career. He has also hauled in at least six touchdown passes in all four of his seasons in the league.

The other notable addition at wide receiver for the Jaguars was when they selected Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round. Thomas has a ton of speed and posted 17 receiving touchdowns in college last season. While none of them are big names, the trio of Davis, Thomas, and Christian Kirk is nothing to scoff at.

He’s not a wide receiver, but it’s important to note that tight end Evan Engram will once again be in the fold. He had the best season of his career, catching 114 of 143 targets for 963 yards and four touchdowns. He ranked fourth in the entire NFL in receptions and 12th in targets. Expect him to remain one of the focal points of their passing attack.

Should Fantasy Managers Feel Comfortable With Lawrence As Their Starter?

Lawrence has the pedigree to be a productive player in the NFL. However, he has yet to translate that into fantasy gold. There were 14 quarterbacks who threw more touchdown passes than Lawrence did last season. Lawrence threw as many touchdown passes as Sam Howell and only one more touchdown pass than Geno Smith. Only three other quarterbacks threw more interceptions than Lawrence did, although two of them were superstars in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

In terms of passing yards, Lawrence was at least one of only 10 quarterbacks who threw for at least 4,000 yards. Another positive for Lawrence is that he provides some added value on the ground. That is key with regard to fantasy. He has rushed for at least 291 yards in all three of his seasons in the league and he has nine total rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons.

The Bottom Line

Lawrence’s current multi-site ADP is 118, which makes him QB17. That means, even in deeper formats like 16-team leagues, many fantasy managers don’t feel comfortable rolling with him as their top option. Bears rookie Caleb Williams (ADP 113, QB15) is even being drafted ahead of him.

Lawrence has a favorable opportunity to reach 4,000 passing yards again with the weapons around him. However, until he can consistently throw more touchdown passes, while also cutting back on his interceptions, he shouldn’t be someone that fantasy managers in 10 or 12-team leagues feel comfortable with as their starter. Those in 15-team leagues could take a chance on his upside, but don’t expect Lawrence to finish the season inside the top 10 at quarterback.