Who Should I Draft with the 7th Pick in Fantasy Football?

There are three RB profiles with the clearest paths to league-winning upside in 2024. Those RBs are Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. With the 7th overall pick, we’re right on the ADP edge for most sites, with Robinson currently 6th on our multi-site ADP. If Robinson is still on the board at the 7th spot, he is my preferred pick in standard, half-PPR, and full-PPR leagues. I’ll dig into each of the three main pros for Robinson below. Those pros are the dramatic improvement expected for the Falcons’ offense, Bijan’s fantastic peripherals in spite of Arthur Smith, and the strategic benefit of locking up an anchor RB in home leagues.

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Standard League: Bijan Robinson, RB - (ATL)

One of the most important reasons to take Robinson in drafts this year is the massive improvement we should see in the Falcons’ offense. Even in standard league formats, a reception is more valuable than a carry for our fantasy football team. Part of the reason for that is passing is simply more efficient than rushing in the modern NFL. Last season, the average NFL team’s EPA per passing play was just above zero, while the average team’s rushing EPA was about -0.10 per play.

Because of that, we want to prioritize teams with a high pass rate over expected (PROE). The 2023 Atlanta Falcons were…well, not that. The graph below shows each team’s PROE on the x-axis and how much that fluctuated weekly on the y-axis. You’ll find the Falcons in their own stratosphere on the left side of the graph.

The market is pricing up players like Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts despite disappointing 2023 seasons. But I’m not sure everyone understands just how much of an outlier the Falcons were last year. Arthur Smith, off the heels of a 32nd-ranked PROE season, has joined the 30th-ranked PROE Steelers. And 32nd vs 30th doesn’t sound like that large of a change until you realize that the PROE difference between the Falcons and Steelers was the same as between the Steelers and the Dolphins.

And we’re not just increasing pass volume. We also should see drastically improved passing efficiency. The graph below shows each quarterback’s completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on the x-axis and EPA per play on the y-axis. And I’ve circled both the Falcons’ old QB Desmond Ridder and their newly-signed option Kirk Cousins. They’re on complete opposite corners of the graph.

Cousins was top-six in both CPOE and EPA/play last year before tearing his Achilles in Week 8. Meanwhile, Ridder was among the bottom-10 QBs in both stats. Now, there is justifiable concern about a 36-year-old QB coming off of a mid-season Achilles tear. But I’m willing to bet on much-improved QB play for the Falcons in 2024.

Best Alternative Picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown

Half-PPR Scoring: Bijan Robinson, RB - (ATL)

In addition to the massive improvements expected for the offense, we’re drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round because frankly, he’s a fantastic RB. But we are taking a leap of faith here. Robinson finished as the RB17 last season in half-PPR points per game. And now we’re expected to draft him as the RB3. But some context is needed. Yes, he was the RB17 last year, but that was only two half-PPR points per game below the RB5 Travis Etienne. And Robinson checked the second-most boxes I found when looking at The Most Predictable Running Back Stats, falling behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Those checked boxes included his 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, 24.3% avoided tackle rate, 14% explosive run rate, and his receiving volume of 3.4 receptions and 28.7 yards per game. All of those cleared the benchmarks that increase the probability of a massive fantasy season this year. And the one box he didn’t check was just rushing volume, finishing with only 12.6 attempts per game, or the 28th most at the position. Most projections have Robinson increasing that mark by about three attempts per game, which will go a long way for our fantasy squads given both his efficiency and the expected efficiency of the Falcons.

Best Alternative Picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown

PPR Scoring: Bijan Robinson, RB - (ATL)

Finally, there is a strategic element to drafting at least one RB in the first few rounds of your draft. I would argue that the value over replacement of Amon-Ra St. Brown is higher than that of Robinson in a vacuum. But it’s relatively close. What you’re going to find later in the draft is the opportunity cost of taking an RB over a WR will increase. I would prefer to take an RB profile with league-winning upside and a relatively small opportunity cost early, rather than being forced to miss out on massive values later.

For example, if you find yourself behind at the RB position early, you’re going to be starting down Rashee Rice versus Rhamondre Stevenson at the beginning of round six in Yahoo drafts. Similarly, in the middle of round six in Yahoo drafts, you have Dalton Kincaid versus Najee Harris. You might find yourself tempted to take one of those dead-zone RBs instead of the high-upside WR or TE if you haven’t selected an RB yet. By taking an early-round RB, you set yourself up to take advantage of the massive non-RB values in the middle of your home league drafts. The market is catching up quickly, but Xavier Worthy and Rome Odzune both have 8th-round multi-side ADPs. You want to be able to take these players instead of guys like Brian Robinson.

Best Alternative Picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown

Superflex: C.J. Stroud, QB - (HOU)

I’m torn here between C.J. Stroud and Kyler Murray so I’ll lean toward ADP and go with Stroud. I’ve also already extolled the virtues of Kyler Murray with the 9th overall pick in superflex leagues. I tend to prefer QBs that offer some rushing upside because it boosts their weekly floor and is often a prerequisite to compete with dual-threat aliens like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. And Stroud doesn’t really offer much for us on the ground. But what Stroud does have a chance to do is put up some other-worldly passing numbers in 2024.

Stroud’s 28.5-passing TD line is the third highest currently offered on DraftKings Sportsbook, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. Similarly, his 4,150.5-passing yard line is the second-highest number currently offered, again behind Patrick Mahomes. For a Houston team that had a negative PROE last season, those are extremely high projections. I think the market is reasonably expecting the Texans’ pass rate to jump a lot this season, given the emergence of Stroud as a superstar and the addition of Stefon Diggs this offseason.

What I found when looking at The Most Predictable Quarterback Stats was that we want to target QBs with a fantasy point per dropback mark above 0.55. Now, only five QBs hit that last season and Stroud was not one of them. But he was close, finishing with 0.51 fantasy points per dropback, which was tied for 8th among QBs that will start in 2024. You can count on one hand the number of pocket passer QBs that could hit 0.55 fantasy points per dropback in 2024. A year-two Stroud with improved weapons is absolutely one of them.

Best Alternative Pick: Kyler Murray

Top Late-Round Targets

My top late-round targets are almost exclusively running backs. In most cases, I’ve selected at minimum four WRs that I’m comfortable starting each week. And this season, in particular, I’m trying to take advantage of the lower costs of elite QBs and TEs relative to last year. With all of this in mind, the weakest position in my starting lineup is almost always my RB2. In this build, I would have Robinson as my anchor RB and then avoid taking another RB for a long time. And so, with limited early draft capital allocated to the position, I’m attacking the position late with volume. These RBs ideally check as many of the following boxes as possible: youth, rushing efficiency, receiving volume, and good offensive environment.

RB2 targets within this framework that have round eight or later ADPs include Jaylen Warren (pending an injury status update), Jonathon Brooks, Tyjae Spears, and Chase Brown. I’m also trying to leave as many drafts as possible with one Cowboys RB and one Chargers RB. These RB rooms have a lot of potential but are priced down due to a massive amount of uncertainty. Don’t shy away from the uncertainty but instead lean into it. My picks for those rooms are Rico Dowdle and J.K. Dobbins but take Gus Edwards if you disagree. And then I’m also taking players like MarShawn Lloyd (pending an injury status update), Jaylen Wright, Bucky Irving, and Ray Davis because they’re great handcuffs on what should be good offenses.

Below is a realistic 16-round draft with the 7th overall pick in a 12-team half-PPR league. The following table shows the round you can expect to draft each player.