Week 13 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

I’ll put the defense’s aFPA (adjusted fantasy points allowed) rank in parentheses below. As of Week 4, we are now using only 2024 data for our signature strength of schedule metric, which makes it a great apples-to-apples comparison of each defensive matchup.

Let’s see who might surprise this week:

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud, Texans (@ JAX, 32)

The Jaguars have the highest EPA/pass play in the league en route to 288/2.09 allowed per game. They’ve also yielded almost 30 yards rushing per game to enemy quarterbacks, and Stroud can run. This year, I’m shying away from Stroud on the road since his home/away splits are Goff-esque, but I’ll make an exception when he faces the Jaguars.

Anthony Richardson, Colts (@ NE, 25)

After a 28.1-point game against the Jets, Richardson managed just 172 yards passing and 61 yards rushing against the Lions, who have one of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots have given up an average of 237/1.67 to opposing quarterbacks and haven’t yet faced a “running” quarterback the caliber of Richardson this season.

Russell Wilson, Steelers (@ CIN, 30)

Wilson is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and 1.4 touchdowns per game, with 242 yards passing per game. The Bengals have yielded an average of 236 yards and 1.73 touchdowns per game, and running quarterbacks have had quite a bit of success as well (36 yards per game). I wouldn’t really classify Wilson as a running quarterback but he can still move well and might break a run or two.

Bryce Young, Panthers (vs. TB, 31)

I try to offer different tiers of Sneaky Starts for leagues with varying levels of availability. Young should be available in most leagues and he’s a decent dart throw given his matchup (274/1.82 allowed, on average) and the 263/1 that he posted against the Chiefs last week.

Running Backs

Bucky Irving & Rachaad White, Buccaneers (@ CAR, 32)

Irving looks like a star. He turned 18 touches (including 6 catches) into 151 total yards and a score. It will be interesting if/when the Bucs commit to him as the full-time lead back or bell cow. He's crushing Rachaad White in yards per carry (5.4 vs. 3.7) and is just as good of a receiver. He has a higher catch rate (94.1 to 90.5) and has posted the same yards per reception (7.9) as White. Both players are viable against the Panthers, who are yielding an average of 163 total yards and 1.45 touchdowns to enemy backfields.

Rico Dowdle, Cowboys (vs. NYG, 21)

Dowdle handled 22 of the team's 26 backfield touches in Week 12 so the team is apparently (and wisely) handing him the keys to the backfield. In the last three weeks, the Giants have given up 208/1 (total yards/touchdowns) to the Bucs, 174/1 to the Panthers, and 155/1 to the Commanders.

Braelon Allen, Jets (vs. SEA, 17)

Breece Hall is dealing with a knee injury and is missing Wednesday's practice despite having a bye last week. If he’s unable to play, then Allen is expected to lead the Jets backfield in a middling matchup against the Seahawks. Allen has only averaged 3.7 yards per carry this season, but he has 10 receptions for 81 yards and has found the end zone three times.

Gus Edwards, Chargers (@ ATL, 14)

J.K. Dobbins is going to miss time so it looks like Edwards will lead the backfield with Kimani Vidal and/or Hassan Haskins perhaps getting some run as well. Edwards hasn’t been very good this year (3.3 YPC on 63 carries), but he has a career 4.7 YPC and has performed well during stretches throughout his career. The Falcons have yielded an average of 125 total yards and 0.54 touchdowns to opposing backfields this season.

Jeremy McNichols, Commanders (vs. TEN, 6)

Brian Robinson (ankle) practiced on Wednesday while Austin Ekeler (concussion) looks very unlikely to play this week. In Robinson’s seven healthy games, other Washington backs have handled an average of 9.9 touches per game, and with Robinson not fully healthy, McNichols could see 10-13 touches in a part-time role.

Ameer Abdullah, Raiders (@ KC, 1)

It’s a terrible matchup, but desperate managers got 13 touches for 65 yards and a touchdown last week and Abdullah should see a similar workload this week, though expectations should be kept in check. This is a case of a stoppable force facing an immovable object. (Abdullah's sneakiness will disappear if Alexander Mattison is able to play.)

Emanuel Wilson, Packers (vs. MIA, 22)

In frigid (27-degree) temperatures, I’m expecting a run-heavy approach for the Packers who have averaged the third-most rushing yards this season. Coming off of a 26-carry Week 12, the Packers may choose to ease Josh Jacobs’ role by giving the effective Wilson more work on a short week. If Tua Tagovailoa’s cold-weather struggles continue, the Packers should be in positive game script for most of the game.

Wide Receivers

Brian Thomas, Jaguars (vs. HOU, 25)

I don’t like where I’m seeing Thomas ranked this week. (It’s too damn low.) Sure, he’ll be shadowed by Derek Stingley, but Stingley has been middle-of-the-road on a fantasy points-per-route basis while Thomas has been very good. Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis are out, so it’s up to Thomas and Evan Engram to catch the ball for the Jaguars. If Mac Jones draws another start at quarterback then Thomas will slide down the rankings.

Tank Dell, Texans (@ JAX, 29)

Including Stefon Diggs’s injury game, Dell has gained 326 yards (65.2 per game) and scored one touchdown in the last five games. That’s nothing to write home about, but this week’s matchup against a struggling Jaguars secondary (195 yards, 1.0 touchdown allowed to receivers in the last four games) makes Dell a solid play.

Jerry Jeudy & Elijah Moore, Browns (@ DEN, 12)

Cedric Tillman (concussion) is likely to miss this week’s game so the onus will be on Jeudy and Moore to produce. Jeudy has posted four straight games with at least 73 yards, so he’s been very good for the last month. In the same span, Moore has had games of 8-85 (12) and 6-66-1 (8) mixed in with a couple of quiet games.

Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce & Adonai Mitchell, Colts (@ NE, 21)

Josh Downs is unlikely to play due to a shoulder injury. Pittman seems like the safest bet after his 6-96 (7) game against the Lions last week. Pierce got off to a hot start with Richardson at quarterback but has cooled off of late. Still, still the Patriots' secondary has struggled against perimeter receivers and Pierce is always a threat to catch a deep ball or two. Mitchell will likely see the biggest bump in playing time with Downs out. Three weeks ago he played 94% of the snaps and posted 6-71 (6), but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback.

Keenan Allen, Bears (@ DET, 17)

After four straight games with less than 45 yards and no touchdowns, Allen played through a gimpy ankle to post 9-86-1 on 15 targets. The Bears will probably go pass-heavy again this week since the Lions are tough to run on and are likely to build an early lead. (It’s worth noting that Rome Odunze is popping in the Week 13 Breakout Receiver Model.)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Saints (vs. LAR, 24)

Recommending MVS always makes me nervous, but he has produced two big fantasy lines–3-109-2 (3) against the Falcons and 2-87-1 (4) against the Browns–in the Saints’ last two games and has another favorable home matchup this week against the Rams, who have yielded the fifth-most 20+ yard receptions and have given up the third-highest YPA (8.2) this season. MVS will have his opportunities–can he capitalize again?

Quentin Johnston, Chargers (@ ATL, 32)

Johnston posted a five-target goose egg in a great matchup with the Ravens and has another indoor matchup against the Falcons. The Falcons have given up 21 passing touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league. Johnston specializes in catching touchdowns–he had three straight games with a score entering last week and has six touchdown catches in his eight non-injury games.

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith (@ GB, 25) continues to be a great Sneaky Start and should remain in lineups against the Packers. Pending Dalton Kincaid’s availability, Dawson Knox (vs. SF, 7) could see a lot of playing time against the 49ers.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles (@ BAL, 19)

Goedert didn’t deliver in a good spot last week, but he saw the second most targets (5) with DeVonta Smith sidelined. It looks like Smith may have to miss again, and the Eagles might have to throw the ball more than they’d like against the Ravens, who have a good rush defense.

Tucker Kraft, Packers (vs. MIA, 26)

Kraft has been a little quiet of late, but he caught a touchdown against the 49ers last week and has his first good matchup since Week 8 (against Jacksonville, 3-78-1). Romeo Doubs (concussion) is likely out. Miami has given up big games to Austin Hooper (4-59-1), Brock Bowers (13-126-1), and Trey McBride (9-124) just in the last four games.

Will Dissly, Chargers (@ ATL, 14)

With Hayden Hurst out, Dissly is a trustworthy spot start. In the last four games that Hurst has missed, Dissly has averaged 5.3-62-0.25 on 7.0 targets per game. On the season, the Falcons have yielded an average of 4.7-49-0.27 to the position, so Dissly has a chance to produce another good PPR line.

Noah Gray, Chiefs (vs. LV, 28)

In the last two weeks, Gray has racked up eight catches for 89 yards and four touchdowns while playing 60-75% of the snaps. This is a little point-chasey, but had we followed that rule last week, we would have missed out on his 4-66-2 day against the Panthers. He has another good matchup this week.

Dalton Schultz, Texans (@ JAX, 31)

The Jaguars have given up an average of 5.0-58-0.55 to enemy tight ends this year. Schultz has been quiet of late, but he played 82% of the snaps last week and had 6+ targets in three of his last five games including seven in Week 11 against the Cowboys.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (@ CIN, 32)

The Bengals are the best matchup in the league for a tight end–they’ve yielded an average of 5.7-62-0.64 to the position. Freiermuth caught all four targets for 59 yards last week in a snowstorm and had a touchdown back in Week 10.

Dawson Knox, Bills (vs. SF, 9)

Dalton Kincaid (knee) missed Wednesday practice which isn't a great sign coming off the team's Week 12 bye. Remember, Knox was the fantasy TE8 in 2021 and the TE13 in 2022, prior to Kincaid's arrival.

Theo Johnson (@ DAL, 18) and Tommy Tremble (vs. TB, 27) are worthwhile dart throws as well.