2025 NFL Mock Draft: Connor Allen's 1.0

Last year, my first mock draft wound up being fairly accurate. I was a Maye/Daniels swap away from nailing the first six picks exactly. I also had the Falcons taking a QB (this was pre-Cousins), the Bears taking Odunze, Dallas Turner to the Vikings, Guyton to the Cowboys, as well as a decent amount of team-position matches.

Despite the really strong start, I big-brained the rest of the process, getting some bad intel that impacted the rest of the draft. I say this not to shift the blame but just to be transparent. Last year’s poor final mock and mediocre draft betting results are 100% on me for poor information filtering. The core of my process is to listen to a few strong public sources and then ignore most of the rest outside of my personal network. I tried to expand my personal network a bit too much, and it wound up getting UGLY. With that being said, I learned a lot and am excited to continue refining my process. As a reminder, all of my mocks are what I think will happen, not what I would do as the GM.

We will be releasing some bets for the NFL Draft as more markets are widely available. Our NBA handicapper, Jake Lotenberg, is already up 60+ units this year with just a few player props per day that are widely available. Code: WIN10 gets you 10% off a betting subscription!

2025 NFL Mock Draft

1. Giants (Via Titans): Cam Ward - QB - Miami

The Titans currently hold the #1 pick, and if they stand pat, I believe they select Abdul Carter. However, the Giants and Joe Schoen are in win-or-get-fired mode. From a long-term, team-building perspective, it’s actually a terrible spot to be in because they are going to make hyper-aggressive decisions to try and save their job. Trading up to #1 to Cam Ward could apply in this situation. Ward is a good prospect, but he probably would have been 4th among quarterbacks by last year’s standards.

By all accounts, the Giants were offering Matthew Stafford large sums of money to come to New York and will likely still be in the Darnold/Rodgers sweepstakes during FA. If they land either of those players, I could see them standing pat at #3 and maybe taking a second-tier QB in the second round (Jaxon Dart, Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe) instead or hoping Ward falls to them. For now, I think this is the most likely outcome.

2. Browns: Shadeur Sanders - QB - Colorado

Early reports from Todd McShay suggested that the Browns wouldn’t pick a QB at #2, but Adam Schefter and multiple other big reporters have said the exact opposite. Schefter and the other reports have even used aggressively decisive language about this pick, leaving little doubt with their word choice that the Browns will be taking a QB here at #2.

There are some connections between Sanders and this Browns team. Deion Sanders and Browns' OC Bill Musgrave played together at the 49ers. Sanders' favorite football memory is actually of a play that Musgrave had, and their relationship seems to be strong. Pat Shurmur and Kevin Stefanski have worked together before, and Shurmur was the OC at Colorado with Sanders. A recent report came out saying Shurmur spoke very highly of Sanders to Stefanski. Could this all be smoke? Maybe. We know the Browns do need a QB, and there are some ties there.

3. Titans (Via Giants): Abdul Carter - EDGE - Penn State

The Titans have been fairly vocal about knowing they aren’t a QB away and that they won’t pass on a “generational prospect. ”I think Carter and Hunter apply much more to that label than either of the quarterbacks. With a new GM in town, he has a few years to try and field a competitive team. Trading down and adding a player they would have taken at #1 overall is a slam dunk.

4. Patriots: Travis Hunter - DB - Colorado

There are some questions about the fit here with Hunter and the Patriots, considering they have a dominant young corner in Christian Gonzales, and Hunter has been primarily billed as a corner who will also play wideout in certain packages. With that being said, two dominant corners could allow the defense more flexibility, and the Patriots receiving group is one of the saddest collections of players we have seen in recent memory. Drafting Hunter would be a big upgrade on both sides of the ball for the Patriots.

5. Jaguars: Armand Membou - OL - Mizzou

New GM James Gladstone has been vocal about beefing up the trenches on both sides of the ball. This could mean Michigan DL Mason Graham or Will Campbell could be in play. For now, Armand Membou has gained a ton of steam, with Daniel Jeremiah suggesting his range is between 4 and 10. He is also the new favorite to be the first OL off the board at sportsbooks.

6. Raiders: Ashton Jeanty - RB - Boise State

The Raiders are a team whose approach could shift pretty dramatically based on what they do in FA. In this scenario, I believe they land Rodgers or Darnold and then start to build out the rest of their skill positions, adding difference-makers. Their running back depth chart is abysmal, with Sincere McCormack and Ameer Abdullah splitting work to close out the season. There have also been some reports in significant interest from the Raiders in Jeanty.

Side note: I fully believe the Raiders are interested in Shadeur Sanders if he falls here. New minority owner Tom Brady seems to be a major factor in the Raiders' decision-making and recently mentored Shadeur Sanders. There has also been a notable amount of noise dating back to last year that Shadeur would be a perfect fit in a big market like Las Vegas and was a spot Deion put a stamp of approval on. I would guess most teams would not be thrilled with the accompanying hullabaloo that comes with drafting Sanders, but the Raiders might be.

7. Jets: Mason Graham - DL - Michigan

The post-Rodgers era is certainly going to be interesting, and the Jets need a lot of help all over the field. Graham could make an immediate impact for them up front.

8. Panthers: Jalon Walker - LB - Georgia

The Panthers need to continue adding players on defense with the offense finding an identity late in the season. Walker would help as a player who can rush the passer and is a strong athlete.

9. Saints: Will Campbell - OL - LSU

The Saints have Taliese Fuaga already, but he played RT in college and could probably easily make the switch back. Campbell also has slightly shorter arms and could be viewed as a very strong interior player. Either way, beefing up the OL should be a priority for the Saints.

10. Bears: Kelvin Banks Jr - OL - Texas

The Bears are stacking the OL via trade with two interior additions but still need to add more talent and depth. Kelvin Banks could be a perfect high-upside option to complement the veteran additions the Bears have already made. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears take a swing on Ashton Jeanty if he is still here, either.

11. 49ers: Will Johnson - CB - Michigan

The 49ers have a few needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but they also need a bit of help at corner. At 6’2/194 lbs., he is a lengthy corner who is a fluid athlete. As Noonan mentioned in his mock, he mostly played zone at Michigan but can play man.

12. Cowboys: Mykel Williams - DL - Georgia

Jerry Jones and the Cowboys are always such wildcards, but we generally have a good read on them. My first mock had them selecting Tyler Guyton, which wound up coming true as well after a trade back. Here, they add more beef up front after getting steamrolled in 2024 on the ground.

13. Dolphins: Tyler Booker - OL - Alabama

Is Tua healthy? If he is, the Dolphins can compete with basically anyone in the league. If not, the Dolphins are a bottom-10 team. Protecting Tua is of the utmost importance, while also improving run-blocking for Devon Achane makes sense.

14. Colts: Tyler Warren - TE - Penn State

I view this as Warren’s draft floor. We know the Colts were interested in Brock Bowers last year and attempted to trade up. They need to continue surrounding Anthony Richardson with playmakers for him to even have a chance to be successful, given his other problems as a passer.

15. Falcons: Jahdae Barron - CB - Texas

I expect EDGE to be a very popular selection here but I think they address that in FA. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot has now been the GM in four drafts and has taken Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Michael Penix Jr. I guess they could go receiver here, which would keep with the trend, but they need to address the defense one way or another soon. Fontenot was with Saints in scouting role from 2013-2019, drafting players with an average RAS of 9.10, plenty of which were defensive players. I’m betting on the Falcons ' four-year trend of offensive players ending.

16. Cardinals: Shemar Stewart - EDGE - Texas A&M

Stewart could wind up going even higher than this after leaving the NFL Combine with a 9.99 RAS. The weird part is, he had a major lack in college production with only 4.5 sacks. His pass rush win rate was just 13.2% as well, profiling closer to a 4th round pick historically (h/t Anthony Reinhard). Another great-tools-and-upside vs production prospect.

17. Bengals: Nick Emmanwori - S - South Carolina

Emmanwori is a late riser after putting up a perfect 10 RAS at the combine after running a 4.38 at 6’3, 220 pounds, a 43-inch vertical, and an 11-foot broad jump. The Bengals defense needs help, and while Emmanwori isn’t the most polished player, he can be used in a variety of spots.

18. Seahawks: Josh Simmons - OL - Ohio State

Simmons was once projected to be a top pick but suffered a torn patellar tendon in 2024. He is expected to be ready for the 2025 season and could be a massive value if he comes out of this healthy.

19. Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell - LB - Alabama

Campbell ripped a 4.52 at the combine at 6’3, 235 after putting up a strong final season at Alabama with 11/5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks. The Bucs have some needs on both sides of the ball, but an impact linebacker could be a value here.

20. Broncos: Omarion Hampton - RB - North Carolina

There has been non-stop buzz about Sean Payton adding a “joker” to his offense but the reality is they just need more playmakers. Their skill players collectively are some of the least inspiring in the league. Hampton would provide an instant bump to their running game and like Loveland with Warren, some teams will have Hampton over Jeanty.

21. Steelers: Matthew Golden - WR - Texas

George Pickens is a great starting point for a passing game, but beyond him, it is ugly. Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson round out a weak position group. Adding more speed with Golden to Pickens could be a great duo.

22. Chargers: Colston Loveland - TE - Michigan

A few people in the draft community have mentioned that Loveland will be even higher on some teams’ boards than Tyler Warren. I don’t think that means he will, but they are probably pretty close. The Chargers need to add more pass-catchers beyond Ladd McConkey who are capable of getting open or stepping up on key plays. Loveland could fit the bill.

23. Packers: Mike Green - EDGE - Marshall

Green is a tough player to gauge after being accused of sexual assault once in high school and twice at UVA before transferring to Marshall. He is talented and has some good traits, but some teams will likely have him off the board entirely.

24. Vikings: Walter Nolen - DL - Ole Miss

Nolen is going as high as 11th overall in some mock drafts but would instantly help this Vikings front that started off the year great against the run but had some pitfalls later in the year when it mattered most.

25. Texans: Emeka Egbuka - WR - Ohio State

The Texans were trotting out Xavier Hutchinson, geriatric Robert Woods, and John Metchie as their ancillary options beyond Nico Collins. Between lackluster OL play and the Texans' weapons going down, CJ Stroud had a disappointing season. Egbuka would instantly be a strong WR2 with WR1B upside.

26. Rams: Tet McMillan - WR - Arizona

The Rams will be losing Cooper Kupp which means they will likely be adding another option at some point in FA or the draft. They recently re-signed Tutu Atwell, and maybe he’s slated for a bigger role, but they need more difference-makers to give the team another shot at a Super Bowl.

McMillan is being mocked as high as the top-5, but after not performing at the combine and questions about his separation and athleticism already, I have him falling a bit here.

27. Ravens: Josh Connerly Jr. - OL - Oregon

Connerly is a multi-year starter at Oregon who performed well against top-pick Abdul Carter. The Ravens continuing to add to the OL remains consistent with their approach.

28. Lions: Greg Zabel - OL - North Dakota State

Zabel is a very versatile offensive lineman who would provide depth and upside for the Lions' offensive line. At 6’6, 312, and tough, Zabel likely embodies what Dan Campbell wants in a player.

29. Commanders: Maxwell Hairston - CB - Kentucky

Hairston torched the combine with a 4.28s 40-yard dash and likely pushed himself into the first round. The Commanders acquiring Marshon Lattimore helps, and Mikey Sainristill played really well, but there are still massive concerns after those two players.

30. Bills: Kenneth Grant - DL - Michigan

One of the Bills' weaknesses from time to time was their inability to stop the run. This reared its head against the Ravens earlier in the season. They could also opt to add help on the back end at safety.

31. Chiefs: James Pearce Jr. - EDGE - Tennessee

Pearce has some character concerns but there is no denying his talent after running a 4.47 at the combine and racking up 21 combined sacks and 71 hurries in his final two seasons at Tennessee. The Chiefs are known for taking players with questionable intangibles and turning them into stellar players.

32. Eagles: Derrick Harmon - DL - Oregon

Harmon ripped a sub-5.0 40 at 313 pounds and 6’4, which isn’t a massive indicator of DL success, but he is very athletic and would continue to add to an already dominant Eagles defense.