DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 15

Dec 12, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players To Be Overweight On

QB Kyler Murray ($7,600 FD/$5,600 DK) vs. Browns

Murray serves as a pivot of off Ryan Tannehill on FanDuel, where Tannehill will be among the most popular quarterbacks of the week; on DraftKings, Murray is simply underpriced. Although the Cardinals quarterback has struggled in recent weeks, he is in a prime bounce-back spot against a Browns defense ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing quarterbacks. Cleveland has been especially vulnerable against mobile passers, as their three biggest fantasy days allowed this season have come against Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen. Murray may hit his ceiling ownership on DraftKings since he is so cheap, but using him in 15% of your lineups should outweigh the field by a multiplier of two or three depending on the site you’re playing on.