Undervalued Dynasty Players: August 2020

Aug 17, 2020

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For the last several years, I've been using 4for4's early rankings to identify dynasty trade targets in the offseason. Last year, I described the process in a couple of articles. In June, we looked at the first results for 2020. It's now time to revisit this with updated rankings for August.

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Methodology

Starting with our projections for next season, I project each player further forward, beyond next season, using typical age curves for their position in order to estimate the points scored in all future seasons. Then, I combine all those points into a lifetime value for the player, in a similar manner to how you would value a stock.

Estimated lifetime values should correlate very strongly with ADP. Where the two disagree, we have a player that is potentially under- or over-valued. Below, I will go through the players who stand out as undervalued after applying this process with 4for4 rankings and current dynasty startup ADP.

Note: There is also a table with the full values of 200+ players at the end of the article!

Dynasty Values

Quarterback

Still undervalued (from June): Josh Allen and Daniel Jones

This offseason, the Cardinals added DeAndre Hopkins, giving a major boost to their wide receiver corps. With his new weapon in the passing game and his ability to add fantasy points with his legs, Kyler Murray currently ranks as our overall QB5. We have him projected only 10 points below Deshaun Watson, and since Murray is three years younger, he grades out as slightly more valuable per the methodology above. Yet, Watson is being drafted in the fifth round of startups, making Murray, who is usually available at the beginning of the sixth round, a relative bargain.

If you want to look at cheaper options, Ryan Tannehill is usually available in the 16th round of startup drafts and is our overall QB15. We think he should be going about three rounds earlier, making this a similar mispricing to what we identified with Daniel Jones in June. Presumably, the reason for this discount is that drafters think of the Titans as a run-heavy team, led by Derrick Henry rather than Tannehill. While that may be their goal, they are not good enough to dominate games. We expect the team to pass more this season, and Tannehill should benefit from that in terms of fantasy points.