Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Bills at Titans

Oct 18, 2021

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Yahoo! has a roster construction of one ‘Superstar’ that scores at 1.5 times, while the remaining four roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the ‘Superstar’ pricing does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.

Two of the most dominant players at their positions square off when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills head to Nashville to take on Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

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More Single-Game Breakdowns: FanDuel/DraftKings

Vegas Total and Spread

Buffalo is a 6-point road favorite with an Over/Under of 53 points. The Bills have an implied team total of 29.5 points, while the Titans implied team total is 23.5 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Josh Allen ($37) has continued to run roughshod on the NFL and has the sixth-best matchup of Week 6 based on the combination of 4for4’s offensive line rankings and Tennessee’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points against (aFPA) quarterbacks. The Titans defense ($10) is also 20th against opposing running backs and 30th against wide receivers. That gives Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll countless combinations to attack on offense.

After being a healthy scratch Week 1, Zack Moss ($18) has taken the reins of the lead back role with the Bills but has not pushed Devin Singletary ($16) far enough away from relevancy. Moss had a 66% touch share over Singletary last week but only held a 56/44 share over the past four weeks. Moss continued to lead the rushing attack in Week 5 and is in an excellent position to lead the backfield in carries. The Titans are healthier on offense and in the event that the home team surprises the Bills, the backfield situation would become muddled and a negative for fantasy players.

Stefon Diggs ($34) is near the top of 4for4’s Breakout Receiver model and is attached to one of the most efficient offenses in terms of pace of play and passing attempts. Part of the small dip in production is the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders ($20) as the deep threat (16.0-yard average depth of target, first on the team), the breakout of Dawson Knox ($18), and trying to take care of secondary options such as Cole Beasley ($17) and Gabriel Davis ($13). That said, the offense is in a position to throw as much as Allen’s arm can handle before running the ball and the game clock. No team has run more plays with a near-100% win probability than the Bills, which is why it is easy to predict a road win.

Derrick Henry ($38) has to be one of the five best players in the NFL. He is a joy to watch and has been incorporated into the passing offense this season. Part of it was by choice to keep their best player involved, and the rest because A.J. Brown ($22) and Julio Jones ($18) have missed time with aching hamstrings. Brown is questionable with an illness but both are expected to play together for the first time since Week 3. Regardless of health or other circumstances, the Titans offense has scored at least 24 points in five straight games after stumbling to 13 Week 1. Ryan Tannehill ($23) has not been nearly as successful in 2021 as in 2020 but the continued success of Henry has made Tannehill’s lack of yardage easier to swallow. Tannehill had four games with fewer than 200 passing yards in 2020. He already has two, both coming in games where Henry dominated.

The biggest issue facing the Titans is how they manage to keep the game close. We saw in Week 4 how poor their receiving depth is without Brown and Jones, and the tight end position has been an afterthought with Henry averaging the same receiving yards per game as preseason sleeper Anthony Firkser ($10). The Bills defense ($21) is top seven in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to each position and is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing offenses. The Bills have allowed 20 points in two road games, with all 20 coming from the Kansas City Chiefs Week 5.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Dawson Knox ($18) and Bills Defense ($21)

The Bills running game can flip weekly and to avoid that potential conflict I want to pair the Bills defense with one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets. Dawson Knox is tied with Stefon Diggs for the team lead in red zone targets and catches, but Knox leads the team in red zone receiving yards and is tied with Emmanuel Sanders for touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Chester Rogers ($10) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($10)

The two most likely candidates to run in three-wide sets are the veteran and second-year wideout. Rogers has seen the most production but failed to see an increase in work Week 5 with NWI out and the Titans blowing out the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills' secondary is exploitable with only one cornerback inside Pro Football Focus’s top 70.

Jeremy McNichols ($10)

In Tennessee’s two losses, McNichols has 11 catches (16 targets) for 98 yards. He offers salary relief in Bills-heavy builds and will play in negative game scripts. McNichols is questionable (ankle) after not practicing Friday and Saturday, which is better news for Derrick Henry than any other Titans running back.

Gabriel Davis ($13)

Davis gets a pricing boost because of the offense he is attached to, but the speedster only has four receptions this season. He still carries appeal as a deep threat and one of his catches resulted in a touchdown.

Superstar Picks

Derrick Henry ($38)

The highest salary on the slate will ultimately be highly rostered as the focal point of the Titans offense. His role is also vital in keeping the Bills offense on the sidelines. Week 5 was only the second time he did not have over 30 total touches this season.

Josh Allen ($37)

Allen has accounted for 14 of Buffalo’s 20 touchdowns and is actually outscoring Henry by 0.4 fantasy points per game. Enjoy the salary discount!

Stefon Diggs ($34)

His place on 4for4’s Breakout Receiver model despite being one of the best fantasy wideouts is enough for me to want him in the Superstar spot.

Julio Jones ($18)

I expect both Jones and A.J. Brown to play. Both will command a lot of attention but I want the player with the better fantasy production (barely) at a better salary. I am also playing Jones because I think he has the better chance to take the top off one of the better safety duos in football. Micah Hyde and Jordan rank in the top 15 in PFF’s safety ratings.