Christian Kirk and a New-Look Passing Attack in Jacksonville

The Jaguars, in typical Jaguar fashion, were extremely disappointing last season. On some level, this was to be expected, but last year was supposed to be different. After all, they had drafted the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Trevor Lawrence, a three-year superstar from Clemson was supposed to come into Duval and change everything. Instead, absolutely nothing changed. Now entering the 2022 season with a new coaching staff, they're committed to giving their franchise quarterback all the tools he needs to be successful. Enter Christian Kirk, who received a contract that insinuates they're expecting big things from the former Cardinal. What can fantasy managers expect from Kirk and this newfound Jaguar passing attack?

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Why Is Christian Kirk Worth All That Money?

It's no question the Jaguars are expecting big things from their new No. 1 receiver. The former Cardinal spent the majority of his four-year tenure in the desert buried on the depth chart and playing out of position. When he was drafted, Larry Fitzgerald was in the twilight of his career and had made his home as the Cardinals' full-time slot receiver. This meant Kirk had to make due working on the outside, primarily as a deep threat. Make no mistake, he made some plays and showed some flashes, but as far as fantasy was concerned, it wasn't consistent enough to be anything more than someone's bench WR.

In his first three seasons, he averaged 85 targets, 53 receptions, 640 yards, and 4 touchdowns. His best fantasy finish was WR40 in 2019. The other two seasons he was WR50 and WR58. He missed 10 games in his first three years in the league and if we look at his per-game averages over the course of a 17-game season, he would finish with 110 targets, 68 receptions, 836 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Slightly better, but still not fantasy relevant.

With Fitzgerald finally out of the way in 2021, the former Texas A&M standout was moved into a full-time slot role and he made the most of the switch. In his final season with Arizona, he finished with 103 targets, 77 receptions, 982 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The receptions and yard totals were career bests.

Christian Kirk has averaged 1.68 yards per route run from the slot since 2018, tied for 11th with Keenan Allen WRs with 800+ snaps in the four-year span.



Kirk ranked T-7th with Kyle Pitts in YPRR from the slot last year (1.80).

— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) March 15, 2022

This past year was a mini-breakout for Kirk. Despite working almost exclusively from the slot—he had the 13th-most snaps out of this position—he was still used down the field. In fact, he ended the season with 1,190 air yards, which ranked 26th among qualifying receivers. He benefited from playing the first full season of his career, but it's still a healthy number for a slot receiver. He averaged 2.0 yards per route run, which ranked 28th among receivers, and caught just under 75% of his targets, good for seventh.

All of this resulted in Kirk's first fantasy-relevant season of his career. He finished as the WR24 with a 10.2 half-PPR PPG average. The fourth-year pro made the most of his targets, finishing with 2.02 points per target, which ranked 18th among receivers. The question now becomes how does all of this translate to his new home in Jacksonville and what can you expect from him in fantasy in 2022?

How Does Christian Kirk Fit in Jacksonville?

The Jaguars were extremely determined to remake their receiver room and in doing so, the writing seems to be on the wall for Laviska Shenault Jr. Based on their free-agent additions, fantasy managers should expect Kirk to be the primary slot receiver in 2022. Any hopes of a third-year breakout for Shenault are all but gone at this point. Marvin Jones Jr. and Zay Jones should be expected to be the primary outside receivers with Evan Engram being employed as the primary move tight end.

In five seasons as the Eagles' head coach, Doug Pederson employed a fairly pass-heavy offense, which should provide ample opportunities for Kirk and the secondary targets to produce for fantasy managers. Below is a table of where Pederson's Eagles ranked during his tenure in Philadelphia on some of the primary team passing metrics.

When looking at that table, there are two seasons that stand out: 2016 and 2020. 2016 was Carson Wentz's rookie season and in 2020, 80% of their offensive line was hurt and Wentz seemingly forgot how to play football. However, one thing that remained consistent was just how frequently the Eagles passed. They ranked in the top-10 in every season, but one. From 2017–2019, the Eagles ranked no worse than 13th in passing yards or touchdowns. This is encouraging for not only Kirk, but for Trevor Lawrence and the other pass-catchers as well.

Marvin Jones has never been a target hog and has averaged 6.3 targets per game over his nine-year career, an average that results in just 107 targets per season. Zay Jones has averaged 3.94 targets per game over five seasons, a pace of just 67 targets per season. Needless to say, there will be plenty of targets available for Kirk to make his fantasy mark in 2022.

Fantasy managers should expect a heavy workload for Kirk this upcoming season, not only due to the target competition in Jacksonville but because of the investment the team made in him. It's nearly a foregone conclusion he'll garner the most targets of his career as long as he stays healthy and there's a chance he could flirt with 100 receptions. He played seven games last season without DeAndre Hopkins and in those games, he averaged 5.57 receptions per game. Over 17 games, he'd have finished with 95 receptions. In PPR scoring leagues, Kirk has the potential to be a dependable WR2, especially if Lawrence is able to improve on an absolutely dreadful rookie campaign.

Fantasy Football Ramifications of Christian Kirk's Free Agency Signing

The dream of Laviska Shenault Jr. becoming a thing is gone. The amount of money the Jaguars spent on pass-catchers this free agency period should tell you everything about what they think of Shenault. As much as the fantasy football community wants Shenault to be fantasy-relevant, the Jaguars front office has made it abundantly clear it's not going to happen, at least not in Jacksonville. The rumors are he is available for trade, so fantasy managers will need to keep an eye on where he ends up. If he's still a Jaguar, he holds almost zero fantasy value in 2022.

As for the Jones's, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting consistent production from either player in 2022. Despite Marvin Jones Jr. leading the Jaguars in targets last season with 120, he managed to finish just WR34 on the year with a lowly 8.5 PPG average. Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting that kind of volume in 2022 and thus, it's unlikely he'll provide backend WR3 value again. The additions of Kirk, Engram, and the return of Travis Etienne are no question going to lead to fewer targets for the nine-year veteran.

Zay Jones has had a bumpy career since being drafted in the second round by Buffalo, but he put together a quality second half of the season last year with the Raiders and he parlayed that into his new contract with the Jaguars. He finished with 70 targets last season, which he converted into 47 receptions and 546 yards while working behind Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and at times, Bryan Edwards. Fantasy managers should be expecting more of the same from Jones in 2022. He's unlikely to be in the top-three of Lawrence's target hierarchy, leaving him as someone who will likely spend most of his fantasy season bouncing from someone's bench to the waiver wire.

One of the bigger fantasy football winners from Jacksonville's spending spree is Evan Engram. While he's become a fantasy football punchline of sorts, he's someone fantasy managers should definitely have on their radar this season. The table below illustrates Doug Pederson's five-year stint in Philadelphia and how frequently his offense targeted the tight end position and where that ranked in the NFL.

Needless to say, Engram could be very busy in 2022. While it should be assumed Kirk will be the primary target for Lawrence, who ends up being Jacksonville's No. 2 is up in the air. Based on Pederson's utilization of the tight end position in Philadelphia, fantasy managers should assume the former Giant is the favorite.

While Engram may not be as talented as Zach Ertz was in Pederson's time in Philadelphia, Engram does have a history of being a high target earner. He finished with 115 targets as a rookie before he began to struggle with injuries. However, his per-game averages continue to showcase he was targeted at a high rate. He missed five games as a sophomore but was on pace for 99 targets. In his third season, he was on pace for a whopping 145 targets in the eight contests he appeared in. The former Mississippi standout didn't miss a single game in his fourth season and finished with 109 targets. Last season was the first year in his career where he did not finish or was not on pace for 100 targets.

As long as Engram is able to stay healthy in 2022, he has the opportunity to be one of the best tight end sleepers of the season. Fantasy managers may have gotten burned by him in the past, but it would be wise to push that aside because the upside and low risk offer the possibility of being deemed as a league winner.

The other two big winners here are Lawrence and Rondale Moore of the Arizona Cardinals. Last season, Lawrence was forced to throw 196 balls to Carlos Hyde, Jamal Agnew, Tavon Austin, Laquon Treadwell, James O'Shaughnessy, and Jacob Hollister. That was roughly a third of his total attempts being directed at that group of castoffs. It's no mystery Lawrence struggled as a rookie, but between the Urban Meyer circus and that group of pass-catchers, it's understandable why.

While fantasy managers can question if the Jaguars spent their money wisely, it's no question they've upgraded. Based on Pederson's past history and what is likely to be another below-average defense, you should be expecting Lawrence to have plenty of volume in 2022. With an upgraded offensive line, a better and more professional coaching staff, and their upgraded weapons, fantasy managers should be expecting a sizable leap in his second season. However, that could happen and Lawrence may still not be a dependable fantasy asset. That's how bad his rookie season was. Fantasy managers are best treating Lawrence as a mid-tier QB2. There are many more dependable signal-callers to target, although a breakout season is not out of the question.

Similar to how Kirk was stuck behind slot receiver Fitzgerald, Moore was stuck behind Kirk in 2021. With his signing in Jacksonville however, the former Purdue standout is likely to have the first crack as the slot receiver in Arizona. There are a lot of vacated targets and available air yards from 2021, which presents Moore with ample opportunity to carve out a more significant role in year two.

Moore had an interesting rookie season. He did end up with 70 targets and a 14.3% target share, which are both high marks for a rookie. However, his 1.4 average depth of target was the lowest in the league by far among receivers who averaged just two targets per game. In fact, no other receiver was below five yards. When he got the ball in his hands though, he proved to be a dynamic playmaker. He averaged 7.9 yards after the catch, which ranked third among receivers with at least 50 targets.

Assuming he takes on Kirk's role as the full-time slot receiver in Arizona, Moore will have the opportunity to provide WR3 value in any PPR scoring league. The Cardinals have brought back Zach Ertz, but they've made no moves to replace the loss of Christian Kirk. If they go into the 2022 season with DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green as their primary outside receivers with Moore in the slot, he could become one of the better draft day values.

The Bottom Line

• Kirk should be viewed as a WR2 in PPR leagues and he has the opportunity to have an even better season in 2022 than he did last year in Arizona
• The former Cardinal will become the Jaguars' No. 1 receiver and could flirt with 100 receptions
• Zay Jones and Marvin Jones Jr. will not provide any sort of weekly consistency and are best left on the waiver wire for 2022.
• Evan Engram is one of the better sleeper targets at tight end this season. Doug Pederson's history of heavily targeting the position and Engram's own history as a target earner bodes well for a big bounceback season for the former Giant.
• Trevor Lawrence will look more like the quarterback everyone was expecting last season. While a big second-year improvement should be the expectation, he's still best treated as a mid-tier QB2.
• Rondale Moore has some breakout appeal in the now wide-open Arizona offense. He'll likely become the new slot receiver in 2022 and could provide excellent draft day value, possibly finishing as high as a WR3 in PPR leagues.