The Training Room: Week 8 Injury Updates
A few years ago everyone at my work decided they were going to dress up at work for Halloween. Living in Jacksonville the decision for a costume was easy - Gardner Minshew. I trimmed my beard down to a handlebar mustache, got a great wig with a headband, and even broke out some vintage 90's jean shorts. Everyone got cold feet when I showed up at work the next day. Yeah…I was the only one dressed up. As someone who does not relish attention or being singled out, it was not a great day for yours truly. Cherry on top, at some point, a client asked if I had dressed up as Fidel Castro…
Needless to say, I don't wear costumes to work anymore. As we move past the halfway point of the fantasy football season, hopefully the team you drafted is recognizable and I am not confused for something it was not intended to be.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR Cinncinati Bengals
Injury: hip injury
Projected Timetable: 4 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Mike Thomas
Initial Thoughts:
Late last week, we learned that Ja’Marr Chase’s hip injury was going to sideline him for the next couple of weeks. Originally the injury timeline provided for the Cincy wideout was 4-6 weeks however over the weekend, the Bengals revealed that they would not be placing their prized WR on IR. Although some of this seems like it is confusing/hard to understand, I think looking at the data explains it a little better.
The fracture is the part of the injury that will most limit his return to play timeframe. Research shows that an aggressive timeline for return to sport after a fracture to the acetabulum or any fracture for that reason is ~ 6 weeks. However, Chase has already been playing through this injury and was likely injured in Week 6 vs. the New Orleans Saints. It bears mentioning that Chase proceeded to play through this injury in Week 7 and drop the number one overall performance amongst wide receivers with 33 PPR points. #builtdifferent
Because the Bengals have a bye in Week 10 I do think that a 4-week timeline for return to play is realistic for Chase - returning Week 12 at Tennessee.
The Athletic, who initially broke the report on Ja’Marr Chase’s injury, also highlighted that he was nursing a hip flexor strain. Because this is a soft tissue injury, I think this portion could be the most limiting for fantasy football production. Personally, I do not have a lot of data on hip flexor strains in NFL WRs but it’s very similar to groin strains which are a more common injury. Taking a 3-game average post-injury on average WRs had a 17% decrease in fantasy football production. If we just remove groin strains and look at all hip injuries (nonspecific), fantasy production over the same span dipped by 10%.
Overall this injury could limit Chase’s upside slightly but he has such an immense ceiling and is currently slated in at WR6 on a points-per-game basis, dropping down the WR9-10 range should not matter much. Considering the alternatives, this is positive news for Chase's managers, as he could be back in four weeks and return to form by the fantasy football playoffs. The key will be getting your team to the knock-outs stage before he returns.
Rashod Bateman, WR Baltimore Ravens
Injury: foot injury
Projected Timetable: 2 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Devin Duvernay
Initial Thoughts:
Sophomore WR Rashod Batman is still recovering from his foot injury and although he played this week, it sounds like he re-injured the foot and could miss additional games. Foot injuries for WRs are particularly problematic. With foot injuries in NFL WRs: 3.2 weeks is the average time missed, with a 24.1% decrease in fantasy production on average the first three games back - the most of any injury I've examined in WRs. The fact that Bateman tried to return in Week 8 likely means he is close to two weeks feels like a reasonable timeline.
I certainly would not advise it but in shallower 10/12 team leagues, I understand if you have to move on. Even when Bateman returns, you won’t be able to trust him for a few weeks, and as the data indicates, he could be operating at less than 75%. Drop him if you must.
Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore Ravens
Injury: shoulder injury
Projected Timetable: 2 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Isiah Likely
Initial Thoughts:
From one Ravens pass catcher to another, Mark Andrews came into Thursday Night's game with one injury and left with another. By video, his mechanism of injury looked like an AC joint sprain. Monday, HC John Harbaugh called the injury minor. This can be true, and it still could mean that Andrews misses time. Assuming it is an AC joint sprain, these can be very painful and make blocking and reaching up overhead to catch the football very painful. TEs typically miss 1-2 weeks with this type of injury, and I currently project the same for Lamar Jackson’s favorite target.
Isiah Likely could be a hot commodity on the waiver wire, assuming he is not already rostered, and based on the landscape of the TE position, he should be a priority on any TE-needy team, even if it is short-lived.
Gus Edwards, RB Baltimore Ravens
Injury: hamstring strain
Projected Timetable: 1-2 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Kenyan Drake
Initial Thoughts:
Right after returning from his ACL reconstruction (ACLR) surgery and looking impressive on a football field, Gus Edwards unfortunately strained his hamstring on the same leg that he had knee surgery on. The injury sounds minor, but given the commonplace of same side soft tissue injuries following ACLRs and with Edwards still getting acclimated to football activities, it would make sense for Baltimore to shut their new starting RB down for a few weeks. Kenyan Drake is once again relevant and Justice Hill is only one injury away from the Ravens adding someone else to the fold and continuing not to use him.
Jonathan Taylor, RB Indianapolis Colts
Injury: ankle injury
Projected Timetable: 0-1 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Deon Jackson
Initial Thoughts:
During his longest run of the game, Jonathan Taylor appeared to reaggravate the right ankle injury that caused him to miss two games earlier this season.
Taylor was able to return but was far less efficient upon his return.
| Carries | Yards | Yards Per Carry (YPC) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-injury | 5 | 38 | 7.6 |
| Post-injury | 11 | 38 | 3.5 |
This could be an issue for Taylor for the next few weeks and as a result, limit his fantasy production. It also does not help that the Colts do not have a bye week until Week 14. I expect Taylor to be active in Week 9, but this ankle injury could still cause Taylor to miss another game or two.
Regardless if this ankle injury is serious or not Deon Jackson should probably be rostered in all leagues. Ankle sprains carry a mod/high re-injury risk at 12%. With fantasy playoffs approaching and the Colts seemingly giving up this season you do not want to be caught off-guard should they decide to shut down their franchise RB.
Cooper Kupp, WR Los Angeles Rams
Injury: ankle sprain
Projected Timetable: 0-1 week
Potential Replacement(s): Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek
Initial Thoughts:
Fantasy managers and LA Rams fans alike held their breath in the closing minutes of a game that was essentially over Cooper Kupp was tackled from behind and limped off the field and into the locker room. By video, it appears that Kupp avoided a major injury to his ankle and could even play next week.
However, it bears mentioning that ankle sprains, on average, cause WRs to miss >3 weeks. Additionally, even when wide receivers do not miss any time NFL wide receivers see a 13% decline in fantasy production following an ankle injury, but much like Ja'Marr Chase, a small dip in production does not affect a top performer like Kupp. It goes without saying if Kupp is active next week, you start him.
Tyler Higbee, TE Los Angeles Rams
Injury: neck injury
Projected Timetable: 0-1 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Brycen Hopkins
Initial Thoughts:
The Tyler Higbee injury is a bit of an engima. His mechanism fit that of a right stinger but when he ram of the field he favored his left arm. He likely sustained a true neck strain. Per the theme of injuries this week Higbee was also able to return later in the game but was ineffective. As adrenaline Higbee could be more sore this week. I would expected some limited practices but currently his chances of playing next week look good.
Adam Thielen, WR Minnesota Vikings
Injury: knee contusion
Projected Timetable: 0-1 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): KJ Osborn
Initial Thoughts:
Anytime I see knee contusion, I get a little wary because this type of injury diagnosis can be used as a catch-all term. A true knee contusion is minor, resulting in 0-1 games missed, while a more serious bone bruise injury can sideline a player for several weeks. Luckily Adam Thielen’s knee contusion appears to be of the minor variety.
Adam Thielen dealing with knee contusion. This can sort of be a catch all term sometimes but looking at video this appears very minor. Likely a true contusion or patella.
Thielen did return following the injury and recorded 3-39. I like his chances to play next week pic.twitter.com/nqQdF28tuZ— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) October 31, 2022
Following this injury, Thielen returned and finished with three receptions for 39 yards. He likely plays next week.
Mark Ingram, RB New Orleans Saints
Injury: MCL sprain
Projected Timetable: 3-4 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Dwayne Washington
Initial Thoughts:
Monday, news broke that Mark Ingram suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday and would be out 3-4 weeks. The projected time missed in the initial report aligns with data I've collected in terms of weeks injured for RBs: 3.3 weeks. Projection post-injury is typically hampered with this injury so there is a chance to grab ahold of the RB2 role in NOLA behind Alvin Kamara. Dwayne Washington is currently slated in the three-hole on the depth chart, but I would not be shocked to see The Saints add someone.
Irv Smith Jr., TE Minnesota Vikings
Injury: high ankle sprain
Projected Timetable: 8-10 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Johnny Mundt
Initial Thoughts:
Irv Smith has the same injury that Cleveland TE David Njoku suffered last week and that I discussed in Week 7's version of the Training Room. Expected return times for this high ankle sprains in tight ends is 4 weeks but more serious sprains can double that timeline. The recent acquisition of T.J. Hockenson likely tells you everything you need to know how the extent of the Irv Smith injury
| Player | Position | Team | Injury | Week of Injury | Projected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | San Francisco | MCL sprain | Week 1 | Week 10 |
| Damien Williams | RB | Atlanta | rib injury | Week 1 | Week 9 |
| Trey Lance | QB | San Francisco | ankle | Week 2 | SEASON ENDING |
| Michael Thomas | WR | New Orleans | toe | Week 3 | Week 10 |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | New York Giants | L ACL tear | Week 3 | SEASON ENDING |
| Javonte Williams | RB | Denver | ACL/LCL | Week 4 | SEASON ENDING |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Washington | hamstring strain | Week 4 | Week 10 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Tennessee | turf toe | Week 4 | Week 9 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | Atlanta | knee injury | Week 4 | Week 9 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB | Seattle | ankle fracture | Week 5 | SEASON ENDING |
| James Conner | RB | Arizona | rib injury | Week 5 | Week 10 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | Carolina | high ankle sprain | Week 5 | Week 10 |
| Darren Waller | TE | Las Vegas | hamstring | Week 5 | Week 9 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Arizona | foot | Week 6 | Week 12 |
| Cameron Brate | TE | Tampa Bay | concussion | Week 6 | Week 9 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | Washington | finger fracture | Week 6 | Week 11 |
| Breece Hall | RB | New York Jets | ACL | Week 7 | SEASON ENDING |
| Mike Williams | WR | Los Angeles Chargers | high ankle sprain | Week 7 | Week 13 |
| David Njoku | TE | Cleveland | high ankle sprain | Week 7 | Week 12 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | San Francisco | hamstring strain | Week 7 | Week 10 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | Green Bay | shoulder injury | Week 7 | Week 9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | Dallas | knee injury | Week 7 | Week 10 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | Cincinnati | hip injury | Week 7 | Week 12 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | Baltimore | foot injury | Week 8 | Week 11 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | Baltimore | shoulder injury | Week 8 | Week 11 |
| Gus Edwards | RB | Baltimore | hamstring strain | Week 8 | Week 10 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | Indianapolis | ankle sprain | Week 8 | Week 9 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | Los Angeles Rams | neck injury | Week 8 | Week 10 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | Los Angeles Rams | ankle sprain | Week 8 | Week 9 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | Minnesota | knee contusion | Week 8 | Week 9 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | New Orleans | MCL sprain | Week 8 | Week 12 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | TE | Minnesota | high ankle sprain | Week 8 | Week 16-17 |
