Justin Fields Might be Terrible, But That Doesn't Matter for Fantasy Football

Perhaps the most challenging part of fantasy football is trying to separate the true breakout candidates from the overhyped players. In 2023, Bears QB Justin Fields will prove to be one of the trickiest iterations of that exercise. The former Ohio State star finds himself going as the overall QB6 in drafts this year after a surprisingly excellent fantasy season in 2022. Here’s a look at if Fields can deliver on his rather pricey ADP this year.

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Career In Review

Fields has had a bit of a shaky start to his career after being drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft. He started 10 games in his rookie year but threw just seven touchdowns and had a QBR of 26.4, which was the lowest mark in the league. He was a little bit better in his second year, as last season Fields threw 17 touchdowns in 15 starts and had a QBR of 54.0, which was 17th in the league.

Despite his generally mediocre passing stats, Fields was able to finish as the overall QB6 in fantasy last season thanks to his capabilities as a runner. Fields posted a whopping 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in 2022. Fantasy managers have learned by now that rushing quarterbacks are a cheat code in fantasy football because of how QB scoring works—running for 10 yards gets you 2.5x the points that passing for 10 yards does. Fields epitomizes this “glitch” in the system. He essentially had the season of Aaron Jones (the overall RB9) on the ground last year, but added 2,242 passing yards. This means you are almost getting two players in one by drafting Fields.

This is one of my favorite graphs from last season. Fields was the worst quarterback by EPA per passing attempt in 2022, but the best quarterback by EPA per rushing attempt and a great fantasy player as a result. In short, Fields has proven that he can succeed in fantasy despite his shortcomings as a quarterback.

The Bears Offense in 2023

While Fields has not had a great start to his career as a passer, it is certainly not all his fault. He has had quite literally zero help from his supporting cast in his first two seasons. His best receivers have been Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and a washed-up Allen Robinson, so it’s no surprise that the Bears ranked dead last in PFF receiving grade last year. Fields was also playing behind a below-average offensive line that was sound at run blocking but subpar at pass blocking.

Heading into 2023, the Bears' offense has much more potential. They made a few solid acquisitions in the off-season, including drafting offensive lineman Darnell Wright in the first round and receiver Tyler Scott in the fourth. Most importantly, they traded for star receiver D.J. Moore from the Panthers. In the past few years, we have seen numerous quarterbacks take a significant leap in their play after adding a true WR1 to their team—Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs, Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown, and Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase, just to name a few.

This graph backs up the idea that a true #1 receiver could truly unlock Fields as a passer in this offense, as all four QBs improved drastically in both EPA and completion percentage over expected after getting a star wideout. If Moore's presence helps Fields can tap into some of this upside and become more of a dual threat, he could be one of the most dangerous players in fantasy football.

Assessing Fields’ Floor and Ceiling

As long as he stays healthy, Fields actually has a pretty high floor in fantasy thanks to his rushing. Even if he continues to struggle as a passer, he should see enough volume on the ground to at least be a top-12 QB. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he finishes much worse than last year considering the improved situation around him.

Alongside a relatively high floor, Fields might have one of the highest fantasy ceilings in the league. If he is able to make the so-called leap as a QB and assert himself as a young star, his lethal dual-threat capabilities could raise him to extraordinary heights. 4for4 currently has him projected very similarly to last season—2580 passing yards and 1157 rushing yards for a QB6 finish. Increasing his passing numbers even a little bit from those projections would give him legitimate top-three potential at the position.

The Bottom Line

• Fields has not been a great football player to start his career but was fantasy gold last season because of his rushing prowess.
• He has had very little help around him thus far, but that could change in 2023 thanks to new receiver D.J. Moore and an improved offensive line.
• Fields has a built-in floor because he will almost surely lead all quarterbacks in rushing. If he takes a leap as a passer, he has the chance to vault himself into the most elite fantasy tier.
• Fields’ ADP of QB6 is a good spot for him to go in drafts. Even his biggest skeptics can draft him because he will be solid in fantasy even if he is atrocious in the NFL, and he has the flashy upside that fantasy managers love. At his best, he could be an incredible fantasy asset that gives your team the production of both a QB1 and RB1 in one slot.