Trevor Lawrence is a Must-Draft Fantasy Football Player at ADP
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is entering his third NFL season and is primed for an excitingly productive year. Jacksonville’s front office jettisoned head coach Urban Meyer and his ilk after a disastrous 2021 season, prompting a wholesale organizational turnaround with the installment of current head coach Doug Pederson in 2022. Lawrence demonstrably improved after Pederson took the reins and is ready to ascend to the elite fantasy football quarterback tier. Lawrence’s cause is aided by the offseason trade acquisition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the AFC South’s rapidly improving offenses. 4for4 rankings smartly have Lawrence ranked as the QB7, one spot ahead of his current QB8 ADP, though there is a case to be made that Lawrence is deserving of the QB5 or QB6 spots.
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Finding Elite QB1 Fantasy Football Performances
In 2022, four quarterbacks averaged at least 22.6 half-PPR points per game: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Among the 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least nine starts, those four were the only quarterbacks to surpass 19.7 half-PPR points per game during the fantasy season (Weeks 1–17).
The table below shows the elite QB1 tier’s average passing and rushing data during that span.
| Player | Pass Att./Game | Pass Yds/Game | Comp. % | TD % | INT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 30.4 | 248.0 | 67.1% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Josh Allen | 35.6 | 266.7 | 63.5% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 38.9 | 313.2 | 66.8% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
| Joe Burrow | 37.6 | 282.8 | 68.6% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Average | 35.6 | 277.7 | 66.5% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Player | Rush Att./Game | Rush Yds/Game | % Team Att. Inside 10-Yd Line | Scramble % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 10.1 | 54.9 | 45.2% | 2.8% |
| Josh Allen | 6.8 | 51.3 | 35.1% | 3.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3.1 | 21.2 | 15.9% | 2.7% |
| Joe Burrow | 3.3 | 17.9 | 21.7% | 1.7% |
| Average | 5.8 | 36.3 | 29.5% | 2.6% |
Lawrence’s impressive improvements between 2021 and 2022 present a runway to an elite QB1 2023 season. The table below ranks Lawrence’s 2021 and 2022 passing data among quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in the fantasy-relevant weeks. Lawrence’s rushing data is ranked among NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 rushing attempts during the same period.
| Season | Pass Att./Game | Pass Yds/Game | Comp. % | TD % | INT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 34.7 (10th) | 243.8 (13th) | 66.1% (13th) | 4.3% (18th) | 1.4% (6th) |
| 2021 | 35.8 (t-8th) | 213.6 (13th) | 58.7% (13th) | 1.7% (32nd) | 3.0% (t-26th) |
| Season | Rush Att./Game | Rush Yds/Game | % Team Att. Inside 10-Yd Line | Scramble % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.3 (t-15th) | 18.7 (15th) | 18.4% (14th) | 1.5% (14th) |
| 2021 | 1.9 (10th) | 20.1 (11th) | 21.2% (10th) | 1.8% (10th) |
With one year of experience in Pederson's system under his belt, Lawrence is in a position to continue building on his 2022 progress. A return to the elite 35.5+ per-game pass attempt range is highly likely and Lawrence's seismic completion rate improvements should translate to a far higher passing yards average. Lawrence has a chance to surpass both Hurts and Allen and potentially contend with Burrow's 282.2 per-game passing yards average. A 1.6.% touchdown rate increase puts him in the middle of the pack and no changes are needed for Lawrence's sterling 1.4% interception rate.
Pederson brilliantly increased Lawrence's designed rushing involvement, bringing the loping 6-foot-6 passer's per-game average in Mahomes and Burrow's company. A 1.0-2.0% increase places Lawrence in his own, mid-range-elite tier.
Jaguars' Pass-Catching Personnel
Jacksonville’s mid-tier slot receiver Christian Kirk assumed de facto No. 1 wide receiver duties in 2022, flanked by the field-stretching wide receiver Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram. Kirk is a capable player but his inability to substantially out-earn Jones’ target market share (22.9% to 22.0%) is indicative of his limited talents. Both Kirk and Jones failed to produce top-20 per-route yardage and target-earning rates, while Engram barely secured top-12 spots in both categories when ranked among 26 NFL tight ends with at least 50 targets.
General manager Trent Baalke savvily sent conditional 2024 sixth- and fourth-round picks, with fifth, third- second-round escalator clauses, to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for X-wide receiver Calvin Ridley. A foot injury and a $1,500 gambling-related deposit derailed Ridley’s tenure in Atlanta, making him available at a below-market value. Operating as Atlanta’s No. 1 wide receiver in 2020, Ridley soared to top-five per-route rates in both yards (2.44) and targets (26.0%), among NFL wide receivers with at least 100 regular-season targets. The then-third-year wide receiver finished top 12 in targets (143), receptions (90), receiving yards (1,374), and receiving touchdowns (nine) that year. Ridley played in just five 2021 contests but retained his exceptional 26.0% targets per route run rate during that span. Ridley provides Lawrence with a bona fide No. 1 wide receiver and allows Kirk, Jones, and Engram to operate with less defensive attention in their natural, supporting cast roles.
AFC South Offenses Ascending
Fantasy scoring potential is often enhanced when a pair of offenses enter a high-paced exchange. After toiling as a bottom-barrel division for years, the AFC South offenses are suddenly trending upward and Lawrnece could be in for a plethora of shootouts in 2023.
The Houston Texans spent the 2023’s No. 2 overall pick on Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Indianapolis Colts snagged Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson at No. 4. Both finished top 10 in sack avoidance rate and top six in average depth of target among 42 Power-5 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, per SportsInfoSolutions. The youngsters immediately upgrade both offenses.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans used an early second-round pick on the enigmatic Kentucky quarterback, Will Levis, who will compete with still-capable veteran Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill maintained a top-12 completion percentage over expectation and a top-six adjusted passing yards per attempt despite being hobbled by a pair of ankle injuries in 2022.
Jacksonville’s three AFC South competitors all ranked bottom-six in total offensive yards per game last year, yet Jacksonville’s potent squad still finished 10th (358.6). The improved divisional competition should only increase Jacksonville’s odds of repeating the top-10 feat.
Jacksonville also gets matchups against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens. The first four all ranked top-10 in offensive yards per game and Baltimore enters 2023 with a healthy Lamar Jackson, an improved pass-catching corps, and the newly installed pass-happy offensive coordinator, Todd Monken.
The Bottom Line
- Lawrence's natural progression has him trending toward elite quarterback usage and production. His development is enhanced by the stability and tutelage Pederson offers.
- Lawrence finished as half-PPR's QB8 last year, despite playing with a pass-catching group that lacked a true No. 1 wide receiver. Ridley's acquisition remedies this issue and allows the last year's pass catchers to assume their more natural, supporting cast roles.
- The AFC South's overall offensive improvements provide Lawrence's Jaguars with more talented opponents, which increases the likelihood of divisional games turning into fantasy-friendly shootouts. Jacksonville also benefits from playing non-divisional powerhouses like Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Baltimore.
- Lawrence’s 6.07, QB8 ADP is a reasonable price to pay for a player trending toward elite fantasy football stardom.
