Fantasy Football: ADP Risers & Fallers (June 5th- 19th)

This bi-weekly version of the ADP movement column got a small injection from mandatory minicamps that were held around the NFL over the last two weeks.

Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last 14 days in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from June 5th to June 19th. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.

*All ADP is courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.

Quarterbacks

QB Risers

Brock Purdy, 49ers (ADP: 185.1, +7.2)

For the second two-week span in a row, Brock Purdy tops the list of QB ADP movers, rising a total of 13.9 spots since May 22nd. GM John Lynch gave his stamp of approval on Purdy’s recovery a few weeks ago and on June 6th, HC Kyle Shanahan expands on his progress, relaying that Purdy is right on track after elbow surgery in March.

Kyle Shanahan expands on Brock Purdy’s progress, who now is throwing three times per week pic.twitter.com/H04NjeHnPd

— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) June 6, 2023

With many talented weapons in the San Francisco offense and that QB spot not entirely solidified, drafters are excited by any information at this point in the summer, which likely caused the spike. Purdy officially jumped over Trey Lance as the first San Francisco QB off Underdog draft boards as QB25, with Lance sliding down to QB28, and Sam Darnold boasting a QB39 ADP in the final round.

Matthew Stafford, Rams (ADP: 156.3, +3.9)

After full participation in the Rams' two-week minicamp, Matthew Stafford appears to be fully healthy, and according to HC Sean McVay is “night and day” from where he was in 2022. The LA QB is coming off a rough season cut short by injury, where he ended as QB33 in fantasy points per game with near career-low numbers in efficiency.

Stafford still has one of the best WRs in the NFL to throw to in Cooper Kupp and presents some value currently, as he’s 4for4’s QB20 with an Underdog positional ADP of QB21 at the 13th/14th round turn.

QB Fallers

Trey Lance, 49ers (ADP: 198.2, -11.7)

As I mentioned above, Trey Lance’s skid isn’t anything he did recently, but the confidence in Purdy’s recovery caused the 23-year-old to fall down to the 49ers' QB2 and QB28 overall. While the situation in San Francisco is far from clear, if Purdy is ready to go it appears to be his job.

Lance could still be traded this offseason or even has an outside shot to win the starting job over the course of the next few months, but as it stands now, the third-year QB is undraftable in redraft formats and nothing more than a final-round flier in best ball tournaments.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (ADP: 168.4, -7.3)

The Arizona QB makes the faller list for the second article in a row, slipping another 7.3 spots after a 20-slot slide just two weeks ago. Kyler Murray’s freefall is likely a residual effect from losing DeAndre Hopkins and the lack of information coming out about his return from ACL surgery.

The fifth-year QB fell from the 14th round down to the early 15th over the last few weeks and is the 22nd signal caller leaving Underdog boards. He’s no more than a QB2 due to being sidelined for an unknown amount of contests but has the potential to fall to a QB3 with poor play upon return.

Other QB Fallers: Anthony Richardson, Colts (ADP: 97.5, -4.2), Kirk Cousins, Vikings (ADP: 110.5, -4.1), Justin Fields, Bears (ADP: 47.7, -3.7)

Running Backs

RB Risers

Ty Chandler, Vikings (ADP: 191.4, +21.8)

The release of Dalvin Cook on June 9th will thrust second-year Ty Chandler into the Vikings’ RB2 role in 2023. A fifth-round pick in last year’s NFL Draft, Chandler played just three games and landed on the IR due to a broken thumb. He did show some chops in the preseason, rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries with an impressive 7.5 yards per carry.

A near two-round jump lands Chandler in the late-16th round as RB60, but he’ll likely rise a bit more as the regular season draws closer.

Jerome Ford, Browns (ADP: 160.3, +12.3)

This is the third-straight appearance for Jerome Ford in this column, meaning he has been among the top RB risers since the beginning of May. I hope you jumped on drafting Ford back then but if not, despite a 48-spot elevation in ADP since May 8th, the Browns RB2 is still actually affordable in the 14th round.

With Kareem Hunt no longer in town, Cleveland has 165 RB touches (9th most) available, presenting plenty of opportunity for the 23-year-old. Ford’s ADP will likely continue to rise, as more folks realize his potential in the Cleveland offense in 2023.

Alexander Mattison, Vikings (ADP: 65.3, +12.1)

Like Chandler, Alexander Mattison jumped up a round due to the release of Cook. The 24-year-old will assume the lead-back role for Minnesota and according to HC Kevin O’Connell portrays the "three-down kind of ownership that he's been capable of for a long time".

Cook averaged 21.7 touches per game from 2019-2022, and if the Vikings deploy Mattison in a similar manner, a fringe fantasy RB1 outcome isn’t out of the question. He’s 4for4’s current RB14 in half-PPR points and is being drafted as the RB20 on Underdog.

More RB Risers: Tyjae Spears, Titans (ADP: 173.3, +10.5), Pierre Strong Jr., Patriots (ADP: 207, +8.4), Devin Singletary, Texans (ADP: 154.3, +6.9)

RB Fallers

Jeff Wilson, Dolphins (ADP: 184.2, -15.9)

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (ADP: 166.6, -13.5)

Both of these Miami backs are sliding due to the presence of Mike McDaniel favorite, rookie Devon Achane, along with rumors of Dalvin Cook coming to town after his recent release from Minnesota.

It’s already standing room only in the Dolphins RB room with Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Achane, Salvon Ahmed, Myles Gaskin, and Alec Ingold all still on the roster. If Cook signs elsewhere, the committee should comprise Achane, Mostert, and Wilson, with the rookie landing as a fantasy RB2 and both the veterans considered RB4/5s. However, if Cook inks a deal with Miami, both Mostert and Wilson become nothing more than last-round stabs.

Chase Brown, Bengals (ADP: 187.8, -8.5)

There was some fanfare after Chase Brown was selected by the Bengals with the 163rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but that has since died down as not only is Joe Mixon still in the RB mix, but HC Zac Taylor spoke very highly of veteran Trayveon Williams during his post-draft pressers.

Brown will have his shot to impress during camps and for now, despite another 8.5 slide after a 7.9 fall two weeks ago, he’s still a 16th-round selection going ahead of Williams in Underdog drafts. Give me Williams (RB77) in the last round though, as he’s the favorite to take on the bulk of the 133 RB touches up for grabs from 2022.

Other RB Fallers: Zach Evans, Rams (ADP: 213.8, -6.6), Devon Achane, Dolphins (ADP: 118.1, -5.9), Roschon Johnson, Bears (ADP: 148.4, -5.3)

Wide Receivers

WR Risers

Rondale Moore, Cardinals (ADP: 131.9, +13.2)

After a 32-spot climb just two weeks ago, Rondale Moore rose another full round to the 11/12 turn over the past 14 days. With the release of DeAndre Hopkins, there are now 165 WR targets available from 2022 with 1,847 air yards in the Arizona offense. The QB situation is still fairly suspect but the volume should be there.

Moore is currently the 60th WR to leave Underdog draft boards, but boasts a 4for4 ranking of WR50, presenting some nice value at this point in the summer.

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (ADP: 161.1, +12.6)

This is the second two-week time frame in a row where Tyquan Thornton jumped in ADP for a total of 24.5 spots over the last month. In my last column, I chalked it up to a hype video that made the rounds of a big throw from Mac Jones to Thornton, but as far as I can tell nothing new has happened to spike his draft spot.

It will be the second year in the NFL for the 22-year-old so perhaps drafters are hoping for the sophomore breakout season. Thornton is still affordable in the 14th round considering his potential in a non-superstar offense and is worth sprinkling into your best ball portfolio.

Van Jefferson, Rams (ADP: 146.5, +8.5)

It appears that Van Jefferson is fully healed from the knee issues that plagued him last season and he’s back to play alongside Cooper Kupp in the Rams offense. In an article titled “Why Van Jefferson is key to the Rams’ rebuilt receiving corps” from June 15th, LA Times reporter Gary Klein lays out Jefferson’s progress and discusses the WR’s impressive performance at minicamp.

With both Stafford and Jefferson healthy which did not happen at the same time in 2022, both guys have the potential to outperform their current ADPs. The fourth-year WR is being drafted as the WR66 right now and is 4for4’s WR52.

Other WR Risers: Parris Campbell, Giants (ADP: 201.1, +10.2), Romeo Doubs, Packers (ADP: 130.8, + 7), Khalil Shakir, Bills ( ADP: 188.9, +6.9)

WR Fallers

Josh Downs, Colts (ADP: 198.2, -16.4)

After a round and a half skid two weeks ago, Josh Downs returns as the biggest WR faller again this fortnight with another 16-spot slide. Colts HC Shane Steichen mentioned that Josh Downs is dealing with a knee injury on May 27th, but there’s been no new news since. The rookie will compete with former Buffalo WR Isaiah McKenzie for the slot role in Indy when healthy.

Jalin Hyatt, Giants (ADP: 165.3, -16)

Another repeat offender, Hyatt’s ADP fell over a round since June 5th after slipping 10 spots just two weeks ago. The Athletic’s Dan Duggan reported that the rookie has been “mostly” working with the third-team offense in camp, which doesn’t bode well for Hyatt’s already uphill battle to see volume in a very crowded pass-catcher room in New York.

Hyatt does boast explosiveness with big-play potential so if the rookie continues to fall, he’s worth a stab for the possible spike week or two. Hyatt is 4for4’s WR141 in half-PPR scoring and is leaving Underdog boards as the WR75.

Other WR Fallers: Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants (ADP: 178.7, -7), Chase Claypool, Bears (ADP: 195.4, -6.3), Jonathan Mingo, Panthers (ADP: 134.8, -5.4), Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns (ADP: 162.5, -5.2)

Tight Ends

TE Risers

Gerald Everett, Rams (ADP: 157.6, +7.2)

The Chargers TE finds himself as one of the latest members of the fantasy-tout-hype club or something like that. I’ve seen people pumping him up all over social media over the last few weeks, perhaps realizing that he may not be the sexiest pick, but Gerald Everett is a solid late-round choice at his position.

Coming off a TE18 performance in half-PPR points per game last year, Everett has a new OC in Kellen Moore who has the potential to elevate the 28-year-old’s game for both real and fantasy football purposes. In a recent appearance on NFL Network’s Good Morning Football, Everett spoke about Moore, stating he’s "Extremely creative, when he first came in, I was mind blown at first. I really don't see him having a limit on what he can do for us."

Despite being drafted as a fantasy TE2 (TE18), Everett could land as a TE1 in 2023, and as a 14th-rounder makes for the perfect choice if you want to wait at the position and grab several late-round guys or as a complement to Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.

Mike Gesicki, Patriots (ADP: 188.3, +7.1)

Like Everett above, Mike Gesicki is experiencing a social media hype movement in recent weeks. The TE position is so top-heavy that drafters and analysts are clamoring for reasons to draft anyone at ADP. Reports from Patriots training camp show plenty of 2TE sets ahead for Gesicki and Hunter Henry and new OC Bill O'Brien has been known to use 12-personnel in his schemes, averaging 28% in passing down situations from 2018-2020 with the Texans.

Right now Gesicki is Underdog’s TE24 with Henry leaving boards as TE33. They have the potential to cannibalize each other so are not recommended in redraft formats, but both are in play as part of later-round committees in best ball.

Other TE Risers: Greg Dulcich, Broncos (ADP: 139.1, +5.8), Luke Musgrave, Packers (ADP: 204.9, +4.7)

TE Fallers

Michael Mayer, Raiders (ADP: 203.1, -7.7)

This drop must still be due to the Jimmy Garoppolo foot surgery news from a few weeks ago because there has been nothing but hype for the rookie TE coming out of training camp in Las Vegas. In a recent presser, HC Josh McDaniels stated "Michael [Mayer] really is what we thought he was,” he also went on to say “[he’s] a really hard worker, great teammate, tries to get better every single day, very attentive in the meetings, works at his technique very hard, wants to know how he can get better as being a pro".

Rookie TEs rarely splash in their first season in the NFL for fantasy purposes, so Mayer is not in the conversation for redraft leagues in 2023, but a dart or two in Round 17 of best ball formats isn’t the worst idea in case he has a few boom games.

Other TE Fallers: Dalton Schultz, Texans (ADP: 136.5, -4.4), Cole Kmet, Bears (ADP: 144.6, +4.1)