SharpClarke Divisional Preview: NFC West

Today we wrap up the NFC with a look at the NFC West. This division has produced three of the last five NFC champions, thanks in large part to excellent coaching. But things might look a little rockier this season, with every team facing challenges right out of the gate. Let's dig in.

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San Francisco 49ers

Narrative

The popular mantra is that running backs don't matter. But the 49ers do things differently. In San Francisco, it seems quarterbacks don't matter (at least until Christian McCaffrey is taking snaps at quarterback). They have been to multiple NFC Championships and a Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo, then went right back to the NFC Championship with Brock Purdy. The combination of elite offensive scheming by Kyle Shanahan and skill players who are extremely good at what they do has enabled the offense to finish in the top-6 in EPA/play in three of the last four seasons, despite no elite quarterback play. If they can stay healthy, they should be right back up there. But they have been losing offensive linemen slowly over the years, and Purdy comes into the season recovering from injury. Trey Lance has not shown the ability to run the offense as effectively, and Sam Darnold has been inconsistent throughout his career. If Purdy misses time, we will see a real test of Shanahan's system in action early in the year. I would not want to bet against Shanahan, but he might have his work cut out for him once again.

Last year the 49ers' defense was dominant. They comfortably led the NFL in EPA/play allowed despite facing some decent quarterback competition in Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields. Typically, defensive performance tracks the quality of opposing quarterbacks and offenses, so their numbers against their schedule speak to a truly dominant defense, not one that got lucky. But questions remain on this side of the ball as well, after Demeco Ryans moved on to a head coaching opportunity and they lost at least three starters in the off-season. They offset some of those losses with the splashy signing of Jason Hargrave, but they might be slightly more vulnerable to injury than in years past. Still, this defense is scary whenever Nick Bosa is on the field. If the offense encounters some bumps in the road, the defense should be able to give them some room to grow and still win some games while they work it out. The 49ers should once again be competing for a spot in the Super Bowl, and the market odds reflect that.

Betting Approach

The 49ers should be clear favorites to win this division, regardless of who plays quarterback in Week 1. But I don't like to bet into uncertainty and believe the market is pricing them appropriately based on this uncertainty. Defenses can be unstable from year to year when they move a lot of pieces around, including the defensive coordinator. But given who they played against last year and the quality of the stars on this defense, I don't see a real path to the downside. Outside of massive injuries, this will be a good team once again. Once we get clarity on the quarterback situation, I will feel more comfortable with my projection for this team. For now, I'm hands-off.

Seattle Seahawks

Narrative

The Seahawks surprised to the upside, probably more than any team in the NFL last year, with Geno Smith seeing a career resurgence at age 31. He wasn't just lucky or the beneficiary of favorable circumstances either. He was making plays. He threw several absolute darts downfield, even while on the run. Through Week 13, Smith was 3rd in dropback success rate, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. But then the magic seemed to run out, as his dropback success rate dropped by 10% from Week 14 through the playoffs, and his EPA/play was worse than every quarterback who played 100 snaps during that stretch outside of Skylar Thompson. This was partly due to an increase in schedule toughness, with games against the 49ers (twice), Jets, Panthers, and Chiefs in that stretch. But it was ultimately concerning that they finished the season 3-6, with two of the wins coming by a combined 7 points against the Rams, once with John Wolford and once with Baker Mayfield. They didn't really compete with the Chiefs or the 49ers in either game. Late-season performance can carry a lot of signal into the following year, especially given that teams finally had tape on Smith by that point.

Despite this, excitement is building for this team after another seemingly solid draft. They added rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to add an important element to the offense, as both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are primarily outside receivers. They also nabbed an exciting young cornerback prospect in Devon Witherspoon. Both will be expected to contribute early. They also have talented young players on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary who will look to take a step forward in Year 2. The pieces on this team look good, individually. But that's just not how I evaluate teams. The system was stumbling by the end of the year, and I don't think these individual players are likely to turn the ship around. After being optimistic on this team's upside early in the off-season, I have cooled somewhat. Their schedule does not look easy, so they will have to be much better than they were last year. Despite solid coaching and good pieces, I have my doubts.

Betting Approach

I can only look to fade the Seahawks at current market prices. I thought 8.5 wins was a fair projection for this team, but bettors have moved this up to 9 in some places. I'd rather play under 9 wins than capture plus money on under 8.5, because I think the team's range of outcomes is tighter than many other teams. I was a big-time Geno stan last season and really want him to succeed, but the market has simply gotten ahead of itself. They start the season with four winnable games, and I will be paying attention closely. Things get tougher from there, and with an early bye week, they could struggle down the stretch once again.

Los Angeles Rams

Narrative

The Rams might be the most difficult team in the NFL to project for season-long purposes. Their Super Bowl-winning roster has been gutted after just two years, losing several key defensive starters in particular. The offensive line took a major step back last year, in part due to injury, leaving Matthew Stafford with no time to run the offense. The offense was not the same even before he and Cooper Kupp got hurt. They did not have the resources to re-stock the cupboard after what they gave up for Stafford in the first place, so they look to limp into the season with the same pieces in hopes they can stay healthy this year. Stafford's elbow must hold up for them to have a chance at anything this year, and he may have to play in shoot-outs, given the state of the defense.

On the other hand, I believe a healthy Stafford is arguably the best quarterback in the NFC, and his connection with Kupp is truly special. The offensive line should be better this year by virtue of being healthier, and Sean McVay is an excellent play-caller and head coach who can help his team win games. These three are simply too competitive to phone in the season and tank. Stafford has always been a tough player, and at age 35, I doubt he is ready to call it quits. Meanwhile, Aaron Donald is still an elite defensive tackle who single-handedly changes the calculus for his defense. He draws frequent double-teams, making the rest of the line's job easier. So even though the defensive roster looks bad on paper, they might be able to play above their projected talent level. And there is always a chance that "unknowns" are better than we think they are. We don't know these players are bad; we just haven't seen a lot of them in action. As long as Stafford, McVay, Kupp, and Donald are driving this ship, they have a fighting chance.

Betting Approach

In case it's not obvious from my write-up, the Rams are hands-off for me in the futures markets. There are too many ways this can go. I don't even like alternate or high-variance bets because their upside is capped by a lack of talent, and the downside is limited with their quarterback-head coach combination. But with everyone healthy, this team is likely being undervalued. Many seem to have written Stafford off completely, but if he is healthy enough to be on the field he is healthy enough to win games. His aggressive passing style should benefit them, particularly as underdogs, where he can just let it loose. But if they win some games early, I won't get too excited.

Arizona Cardinals

Narrative

The Cardinals are another team that is difficult to bet in season-long markets. A bettor must be able to identify the things that they do well and things they don't do well. My approach is built around understanding on-field performance better than statistics can explain, and my weakness is betting into uncertainty. There is a lot of uncertainty here. They have an entirely new coaching staff, with Jonathan Gannon entering his first head coaching gig after riding the Eagles' success last year. He might be a good coach, but I did not think he was a good defensive coordinator. His Eagles, loaded with talent, got roasted by every decent quarterback they faced last year, including in the Super Bowl, where the Eagles scored more than any Super Bowl loser in history. But the numbers looked good due to an easy overall schedule and an unsustainable pressure-to-sack ratio. I doubt he can get anywhere close to that level of performance with Arizona, especially against a projected tougher schedule.

We also don't know when or if Kyler Murray will return to play quarterback. He is the type of player who can create out of nothing, so even though things look bleak overall for this team, if he plays to his potential, the Cardinals will still be live to win games. Organizationally, if they get toward the end of the year and are close to the bottom of the league, it would be smart to pack it up and get an early draft pick. But they also might want to see if Murray can put enough on film to turn that draft pick into a trade piece instead of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. I expect Gannon and the ownership are taking a long-term view of this season, but NFL teams are full of players playing their hardest for contracts. I honestly have no idea how this all plays out, but the market is obviously projecting this team's downside, which is fair. I just would not want any bets against the Cardinals in season-long markets if Murray returns by Week 8. Colt McCoy has also done well in spot starts at times, so they should not be left for dead, even if Murray takes his time. But the roster lacks the talent to really compete for a playoff spot this season without Murray.

Betting Approach

Ultimately, I'll let others put their strong opinions on the line and remain an observer in season-long markets. I also have no appetite for playing them against the spread early in the year. There is so much I don't know about this team. I will open the season with a blank slate and fill it in as I observe.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

49ers - 10.8 wins, ~60% chance to win the NFC North

Seahawks - 8.9 wins, ~29% chance to win the NFC North

Rams - 6.4 wins, ~8% chance to win the NFC North

Cardinals - 4.5 wins, ~3% chance to win the NFC North

Best Bet

I surprise myself with this one because I came into the off-season bullish on the Seahawks. But given how much the market has moved and my study on teams that fade down the stretch the prior year, I have lost confidence in them. They should be an average team, and with a fairly up-and-down schedule, I project them to win, as a median, 8.5 wins. There is some value on Under 9 Wins -110 available at Bookmaker. I would prefer laying some small juice on Under 9 than playing plus money on Under 8.5, because I project 9 wins to be a fairly high-percentage outcome.

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