Week 2 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Sep 15, 2023

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

It feels incredible to be back. Not just the daily grind but the highs and lows of betting on the NFL. Sharp Clarke both absolutely crushed this week with more than 15 units on sides and totals. I was just a smidge positive, while Noonan won roughly a unit. For those new to this column, I usually recap the previous week with any close wins or bad beats on official plays prior to breaking down my plays for the following week.

Week 1 Recap: Thursday Night went fairly well, with both unders cashing but my lone over on Jahmyr Gibbs falling short. We bet the over on his receiving yards at 25.5. By game time, it closed above 30. At 4for4, we like to joke that is called “LCLV” or “losing closing line value.” It’s when you make a bet that beats the closing price by a significant margin, but still wind up losing. It never feels good, but beating the market at least gives us something to hang our hats on in those situations. It’s not as big of a deal in the prop world in most scenarios since steam moves props, but in this situation, we know multiple other groups were on this as well, and it moved a ton.

I have to get this off my chest. I simply could not have been more wrong about Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichen. I thought the Colts were going to go run-heavy and pass the ball occasionally, pretty similar to the Falcons and Bears of last year. Shane Steichen gave me and many other Richardson doubters a massive middle finger when he was masterfully scheming easy throws for Richardson and squeezing as many edges as possible despite limited wideout and offensive line play. It is almost reminiscent of what we saw from Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones last year. Despite my confidence in Anthony Richardson’s passing under, losing it didn’t even feel that bad because it was so impressive compared to my expectations. Considering I double-dipped on the Colts' passing game and lost both, it felt good to still end up in the black heading into Week 2.

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