SharpClarke's Best Week 9 NFL Bet: LAC @ NYJ

Nov 03, 2023

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In this week's matchup article, I am going to once again plug my nose and make an uncomfortable bet that my numbers support. On Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Chargers head to New Jersey to face the New York Jets in a game that could have serious AFC playoff implications, particularly for the team that loses this game. Both teams face an uphill battle, and a win here will go a long way. I find value on the home underdog here, which means I'm putting money on Zach Wilson. Uh oh. But let me explain.

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Matchup Breakdown

NYJ offense v. LAC defense

I'll start with the obvious: Zach Wilson is not a good quarterback and continues to struggle with any kind of pressure. He routinely backpedals and tries to escape when he is simply not as fast as the defensive ends that track him down. This leads to bad throws and sacks. When combined with the Jets' offensive line that is completely decimated by injury, it's not a good combination. The Jets are my lowest-ranked offense in the NFL currently, even factoring in backup quarterback situations across the league. I open with this because it's fundamental when betting on the NFL to understand the opposition. These elements are captured by my model, and I still see value on the Jets, which makes me comfortable with the bet. As I discussed in my write-up for the Giants-Commanders game two weeks ago, sometimes cluster offensive line injuries are over-counted, in particular when the starters who are injured were not playing that well to begin with. The two new additions to the IR, Connor McGovern and Wes Schweitzer, have not been great. McGovern has graded 34th out of 38 eligible centers per PFF's grades, and Schweitzer has graded even worse. Replacement-level players won't be a significant downgrade because they've been replacement-level already. Yes, it was a disaster against the Giants. But in-game offensive line injuries typically have that impact, particularly at center. It's a different story with a full week (plus a day) to prepare with the new lineup. They may even get Duane Brown back.

The Chargers' defense is a bit difficult to figure out. They have had some really bad games against really good offenses and capitalized against two inferior backup quarterbacks in Tyson Bagent and Aiden O'Connell. Of course, Zach Wilson is in the same line as those players, so it may not be pretty. If Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are in the backfield all day, it could be ugly. But the Chargers have given up big plays all year, and gotten away with some plays that should have been big plays (like the dropped wide-open touchdown by Chicago last week). The Jets will likely struggle to make consistent first downs, but I expect a couple of big plays by Breece Hall and/or Garrett Wilson to at least get some points on the board. I also think Wilson has the right mentality in comeback situations to make big plays. I ultimately project a similar offensive output from the Jets that we got from the Bears last week, and the Bears left some points on the board. But the range of outcomes includes the Jets' best offensive performance of the year, especially considering the defenses they have had to face so far. The Bills (pre-injuries), Cowboys, Patriots (pre-injuries), Chiefs, Broncos (post-injuries), Eagles, and Giants are a fairly formidable group of defenses overall. There is a chance the Jets score 20+ here without having an outlier good game. That's good enough for me.

LAC offense v. NYJ defense

I'll state the obvious here: if the Chargers' offense comes out firing and scoring touchdowns at will, the way the Cowboys did against this Jets' defense, then the Jets aren't winning this game, and they probably aren't even covering. But I think there is a big advantage here for the Jets' defense, and it's the primary angle for this play. I came into the season very high on the prospects for this Chargers' team, and I have been a long-time big fan of Justin Herbert. But whether it's his thumb or playing without Mike Williams and Corey Linsley, he and this offense have not been great for four games now. Herbert can make all the throws and will punish defensive mistakes. He is very elusive and accurate. But when his receivers are unable to win, he is very limited in what he can do. The windows he has to throw into become so tight, and that leads to low-percentage throws. Or, instead, he checks down short of the line of scrimmage. This has led to an offense that relies on bad defense to open up players or convert low-percentage throws consistently.

The Jets are a nightmare matchup for this style of offense. Despite blitzing at one of the league's lowest rates, they lead the NFL in pressure percentage, per Pro Football Reference. They have arguably the best set of cornerbacks in the NFL, who will have a massive advantage over Keenan Allen and whichever underwhelming player is playing the wide receiver #2 role. Nothing will be easy. Even with Austin Ekeler, the run game and short passing game will go up against a fierce linebacking duo and stout defensive line. This is a defense that is perfectly constructed to make things as difficult as possible for the best quarterbacks in the NFL. That's how the Jets beat Josh Allen and the Bills, took Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to the wire, and beat Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. if Herbert somehow has his best game this week, against this defense, I'll be shocked. And even if they have early success, they are unlikely to remain aggressive and press the advantage. Their run game will likely not be good enough to bleed clock, and we may have an opportunity for a Jets' comeback.

Market Evaluation

This line opened at Chargers -3, which was a little higher than the look-ahead after the Jets' offensive line got battered in their game against the Giants. They also did not look good overall, and arguably should have lost that game. So, the move was justified. But early-week bettors pushed the line up to Chargers -3.5 as Under money also continued to come in. This market movement is totally understandable, as the far superior quarterback is catching money on a short spread against one of the worst offenses in the NFL. But this move to -3.5 creates value according to my model and I will get involved.

Best Bet

I'm taking the Jets +3.5 at home. I think they can keep this game competitive, but I also like the late-game scenarios where this number is within range. If the Chargers have to salt away a win, I doubt they'll have any success bleeding clock without a strong interior running game against an elite defensive line. And if the Jets are behind late, things can really open up in soft coverage when Zach Wilson is at his best. Chargers winning by exactly 3 is a relatively high-probability outcome, so capturing it is good enough for me.

NYJ +3.5 -110 (Bet365, Circa, Caesars, Betonline, BetMGM, PointsBet)