Week 9 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 04, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Bills vs. Bengals

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the single-game DFS breakdown for Week 9 Sunday Night Football, featuring a high-stakes AFC clash as the Buffalo Bills take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams are looking to cement their status in a tightly contested conference, with Buffalo sitting at 5-3 and Cincinnati at 4-3, making this more than just a game that not only promises fireworks but also carries significant playoff implications. Let's dive into the game environment to uncover the strategic edges for DFS players on this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Bills (24.0) @ Bengals (26.5); Over/Under 50.5

In what's the highest total of the week, the Bills march into Cincinnati as slight underdogs, a rare position for this offensive juggernaut. Buffalo's offense, known for its aggressive air assault, is top five in both deep pass attempts and red zone pass attempts per game. Their strategy shifts dramatically when ahead, however, as indicated by their 29th ranking in overall pace of play—they are content slowing down to a methodical, run-first team in order to protect leads. As 2.5-point underdogs, we might see the Bills maintain their aggressive pass rate throughout. With the way Burrow and company have been playing of late, it would behoove the Bills to keep their foot on the proverbial gas throughout.

The 4-3 Bengals, despite their last-place standing in the AFC North due to tiebreakers, present a formidable challenge for any opponent and currently play at the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL. Their offensive rhythm doesn't necessarily rely on deep throws, ranking only 26th in deep pass attempts, but they compensate with volume and efficiency, also ranking top 12 in red zone pass attempts. They tend to play at a league-average pace in neutral game scripts, but their bottom-10 overall pace ranking reflects a team that's neither hurried nor harried once they get ahead—similar to the Bills. With both teams likely to lean on their passing games and unlikely to feel comfortable down-shifting to the run, we anticipate a back-and-forth aerial battle that should result in multiple high-ceiling DFS performers.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Josh Allen continues to impress with strong efficiency metrics this season, firmly positioning himself among the league's elite-tier quarterbacks. His statistical showcase includes top-five rankings in per-pass efficiency, as evidenced by his completion percentage versus expectation, and he excels equally in drive success rate and per-game efficiency via Expected Points Added (EPA). Allen has thrown 17 touchdown passes, third-most in the NFL, and ranks in the top 10 in adjusted yards per attempt, QBR, and true passer rating. He’s top five in catchable pass rate while averaging the sixth-highest air yards per target, showing just how accurate he’s become at every level of the field. When the pocket is clean, there’s no one more accurate in the league according to PlayerProfiler accuracy ratings.

Though his rushing attempts have decreased compared to last season, he remains a top-5 quarterback in red zone carries per game which is perfect for maintaining his DFS upside. In fantasy terms, he's second in expected fantasy points per game and leads in fantasy points scored per game. Despite minor fluctuations in efficiency numbers in recent weeks, his production has remained consistent, with 25-plus fantasy points in four of his last five starts. The Bengals’ defense is 11th in pass defense DVOA but remains susceptible to big plays, ranking third-worst in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow had an undoubtedly rough start to the season, hampered by a calf injury that visibly impacted his mobility and his passing efficiency, which is why his metrics are so uncharacteristically low on the chart above. However, the tide has turned since Week 4, with Burrow climbing the ranks and showcasing a return to the high-performance quarterback that the league has become accustomed to. Let’s look at how the same efficiency chart would look if we just include games from Week 5 onward:

Over the last four games, Burrow has surpassed Allen in all three charted efficiency metrics, now ranking top three in the NFL for per-pass and per-game efficiency. His recovery is further evidenced by his climb to 13th in expected fantasy points per game even using his entire season as the sample size. Burrow's Week 8 performance was particularly impressive, with 283 passing yards on an exceptional 87% completion rate, averaging nearly 9.0 yards per attempt. This resurgence from Burrow coincides with a return to form for the entire offense, indicating that the Bengals will likely be a formidable force as the season progresses once again. The Bills are middle of the pack pass defense DVOA.