O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 15

Dec 13, 2023

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	BAL	JAX	28	25
7	DEN	DET	31	24
2	DAL	BUF	24	22
12	GB	TB	29	17
6	MIN	CIN	21	15
1	PHI	SEA	12	11
8	BUF	DAL	18	10
23	LAR	WAS	32	9
18	SEA	PHI	27	9
10	KC	NE	17	7
16	LVR	LAC	23	7
14	SF	ARI	20	6
17	HOU	TEN	22	5
4	IND	PIT	9	5
15	TB	GB	16	1
29	TEN	HOU	30	1
9	ATL	CAR	7	-2
5	DET	DEN	3	-2
27	WAS	LAR	25	-2
30	CAR	ATL	26	-4
11	CLE	CHI	5	-6
22	PIT	IND	13	-9
20	CHI	CLE	10	-10
25	JAX	BAL	14	-11
26	NE	KC	15	-11
13	MIA	NYJ	1	-12
32	NYJ	MIA	19	-13
19	CIN	MIN	4	-15
21	LAC	LVR	6	-15
24	NO	NYG	8	-16
31	NYG	NO	11	-20
28	ARI	SF	2	-26

Packers vs. Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have slowly morphed into the biggest pass-funnel defense in the league, thanks in large part to the fourth-lowest pressure rate (32.1%) in the league, as they rank fourth in aFPA to the running back position, yet 29th against quarterbacks and 30th against wide receivers. This trend continued last week, as the defense was only able to force seven pressures while allowing Desmond Ridder (347) and Drake London (172) to reach new career highs in yardage. This was despite Kaleb McGary (right tackle) and Drew Dalman (center) missing from the Falcons offensive line, while Jake Matthews (left tackle) was forced out of the game with a knee injury after only 15 snaps.

The Buccaneers' pass rush could have an even more difficult time here in Week 15 against a Packers o-line that has allowed the fourth-lowest QB pressure rate (30.9%) while dealing with their own rotation issues. Though their loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football didn’t inspire much confidence in the offense moving forward, it was—by far—their worst performance in well over a month.

Jordan Love should look more like the 286-2.5-0.5 stat line he had accrued over the previous four games in this soft matchup, which would open the door for his skill position players to jump back into the fantasy landscape. Both Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are back in WR2/3 consideration, while Tucker Kraft is on the tight end streaming radar.

Bills vs. Cowboys

The Bills have had an up-and-down season throughout 2023, but not much of that has to do with how effective they’ve been at moving the ball. Rather, Josh Allen’s return to erratic throws are the more likely culprit. Allen’s 2.9% interception rate is his highest since his rookie season (3.8%), while his 14 interceptions in 13 games look prime to eclipse his previous career-high of 15 in 2021. Luckily, that doesn’t much matter in Fantasyland, as his 307.3 fantasy points are firmly the most in the league.

These turnovers don’t land on this offensive line, who are quietly third in adjusted sack rate (4.40%) and QB pressure rate (30.2%) due to a veteran unit who have been on the field together for nearly every snap of the year. They’ll be in for a tough task with the Cowboys defensive front coming into town, but it doesn’t look quite as terrifying as we would have thought in the first couple of months of the season. The Cowboys are only 15th in pressure rate (40.0%) over these last three weeks, while their boom-or-bust secondary has allowed the sixth-most yards per coverage snap (7.2) in that same span.

While Allen and Stefon Diggs are obvious plays in any spot, this potential shootout allows us to dig deeper, and that begins with the health of Dalton Kincaid. If Kincaid is forced to miss Week 15 (shoulder, participating in walk-through as of Wednesday afternoon), both Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir become interesting deep-league plays. Otherwise, Kincaid should be started everywhere, with Gabe Davis remaining a dart throw that could land you zero or 18 fantasy points, with practically no in-between.

Ravens @ Jaguars

As long as Ronnie Stanley maintains his current streak of good health, there’s no reason the Ravens won’t continue to pop up in positive offensive environments throughout the last month of the season. Stanley has been credited with two or fewer pressures allowed in four of his last six healthy games, while the team has been rotating in Daniel Faalele and Patrick Mekari to keep their veteran tackles (Stanley, Morgan Moses) fresh as the calendar winds down.

The process has been working thus far, as the team’s 449 offensive yards was the fourth such occurrence of 400+ yards over the last six games, leaving Lamar Jackson with 24+ fantasy points in three of those games. While Jackson’s real-life MVP odds have dwindled in the second half of the year, he continues to pop up for matchup-winning upside.

While the Jaguars have one of the best pass-rushers in the league with Josh Allen and his 13.5 sacks, they have proven to be paper-thin around him, getting thrown around by two AFC North backup quarterbacks in their last two critical games. Jake Browing and Joe Flacco combined for 665 passing yards and five total scores, finishing as the respective QB4 and QB10. While Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Isaiah Likely are all easy clicks, don’t disregard Odell Beckham’s recent surge in usage. Beckham sports a 21.8% target share with an incredible 18.3 average depth of target in the three games surrounding the team’s Week 13 Bye.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

49ers @ Cardinals

The return of Kyler Murray in Week 10 made an immediate improvement on the Cardinals' pressure-to-sack ratio, but the returns fell away quickly, as Murray absorbed nine sacks in the three following games. The team ranks 23rd in adjusted sack rate (7.89%) over the entirety of the year, with rookie right tackle Paris Johnson Jr. allowing a sack in each of the last three games, a streak that may not be coming to a close with Nick Bosa and Chase Young coming to town.

The Cardinals rank 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, and though they run into a huge game against the Baltimore Ravens next week, the 49ers wrap up the fantasy playoffs against the Commanders, who rank 29th in opposing defense scoring. If a league mate drops the 49ers D/ST after this week, have the foresight to snatch them immediately.

Giants @ Saints

A resurgent New York Giants team has a chance to further remove themselves from a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft when they head to New Orleans to take on either Derek Carr with fractured ribs, Jameis Winston’s interception-prone arm, or some amalgamation of both. Against a Saints offensive line that has plenty of down weeks this year, the Giants should be in consideration as a very cheap D/ST on your favorite DFS site this week.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	PHI	SEA	29	28
2	DAL	BUF	24	22
5	DET	DEN	25	20
9	ATL	CAR	26	17
14	SF	ARI	30	16
13	MIA	NYJ	28	15
4	IND	PIT	16	12
6	MIN	CIN	17	11
22	PIT	IND	32	10
23	LAR	WAS	31	8
3	BAL	JAX	10	7
21	LAC	LVR	27	6
15	TB	GB	21	6
8	BUF	DAL	12	4
7	DEN	DET	11	4
16	LVR	LAC	20	4
17	HOU	TEN	19	2
24	NO	NYG	23	-1
11	CLE	CHI	8	-3
26	NE	KC	22	-4
20	CHI	CLE	15	-5
10	KC	NE	3	-7
12	GB	TB	4	-8
31	NYG	NO	18	-13
27	WAS	LAR	14	-13
30	CAR	ATL	13	-17
19	CIN	MIN	2	-17
18	SEA	PHI	1	-17
25	JAX	BAL	5	-20
29	TEN	HOU	9	-20
28	ARI	SF	6	-22
32	NYJ	MIA	7	-25

Eagles @ Seahawks

Though the Eagles just got crushed by the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in what was likely the most important game of their season to this point, that’s certainly no reason to fade them in fantasy. The Seahawks defense—which has allowed 159.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests—will be finishing off a brutal four-game stretch that culminates with this Eagles team ready to show the world that their near-blowout loss last week was simply a fluke.

While the Philadelphia passing pieces are all a must-start in fantasy, this offensive line ranks fourth in running back yards before contact (1.89), which should help D'Andre Swift flirt with the 100-yard mark for the first time since Week 3. He is a locked-in RB2 with upside for a top-ten finish.

Lions vs. Broncos

It has long been understood that Jared Goff will only go as far as his surrounding framework will take him. This certainly doesn’t mean that he is a bad NFL quarterback, but if his protection is faltering, he will likely be, as well. Out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff ranks 23rd in adjusted QBR (65.3) when under pressure, yet ninth when in a clean pocket (108.5).

With the recent health issues from pieces of the offensive line (Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson), we’ve seen some of the “bad” Jared Goff pop up from time to time, but the team has maintained its presence in the running game, where they currently rank second in adjusted line yards (4.84) and third in running back yards before contact (1.98). This has made both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery strong fantasy pieces—when healthy—all season long.

This week is no exception, as the Broncos' defensive front ranks 31st in adjusted line yards (4.80) and would still be giving up a massive 4.78 yards per carry if we removed the Dolphins' wild 70-point performance in Week 3.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: