Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers: July

This is still a downtime in the NFL so all ADP movement is likely courtesy of rumors and coach speak from the last organized practices, along with the occasional workout hype video or photo. You’d think draft values would not have changed much over the last few weeks, but conversely, there has been some significant movement.

Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last month in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from June 7th to July 7th. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.

*All ADP is courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.

Quarterback

QB Risers

Daniel Jones, Giants (ADP: 196.6, -7.8)

During OTAs and minicamps, Brian Daboll was seen calling plays, which bodes well for Daniel Jones as the Giants' offense ranked an average of 17th in plays per game, 20th in pass play percentage, and 26th in pass attempts per game in 2022-2023 with Mike Kafka running the offense, while Daboll’s last two years in Buffalo from 2020-2021 resulted in 12th, 8th, and 13th in those same categories, respectively. If we see even small shifts toward his old ways, Jones could outplay his current QB27 ADP.

Of course, the 27-year-old could falter early on and be replaced by Drew Lock. Jones makes for an inexpensive QB2 in the 17th round if you drafted an elite QB early or as a QB3 as part of a later-round committee strategy, but it is not a viable option for redraft leagues for now.

QB Fallers

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (ADP: 206.8, +13.6)

When asked about J.J. McCarthy’s expected playing time, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis responded with “Definitely not in Week 1. Probably not in the first quarter of the season. Potentially not even in the first half of the season.”

This was at the end of June, and with nothing happening right now at the Vikings facility to move the needle the other way, the rookie’s ADP has taken a full-round hit plus a few picks. Both McCarthy and presumed starter Sam Darnold are 15th-round selections right now in best ball drafts with zero redraft value.

Running Backs

RB Risers

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers (ADP: 179.8, -21.1)

Hype season has come a little early for Elijah Mitchell this year, but here we are again. Beat writers observed that he’s the clear RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey and if he can stay healthy, should have a role in fantasy land in 2024.

Underdog drafters are now selecting Mitchell almost two full rounds earlier than they were a month ago, but he’s still nicely priced as the final pick of Round 15. He should be considered an RB5 with upside if anything were to happen to CMC.

Braelon Allen, Jets (ADP: 187.1, -13.3)

This near-round rise in ADP appears to be courtesy of the “RBs lining up as passers” narrative that makes its way around this time of year. Braelon Allen showcased his pass-catching prowess at the Jets minicamp, making him likely in line for RB2 duties behind Breece Hall. He could assume a three-down role in the New York backfield if Hall were to miss any time, depending on how training camp goes for the rookie.

Allen is nicely priced in the 16th round in best ball and could be a sneaky late-round bench stash in redraft leagues.

Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (ADP: 153.8, -12.2)

The Denver backfield is crowded and tough to navigate heading into 2024 but Jaleel McLaughlin has been gaining some steam in both hype and ADP over the last month. He had a very solid early camp and is coming off a season where he was first in rushing yards over expected per carry, third in yards before contact per carry, and 14th in yards after contact per carry among RBs with at least 50 carries.

If McLaughlin can earn Sean Payton's trust and deliver in the Broncos' new-look offense, there’s RB2 potential for the price of a low-end RB4.

RB Fallers

Nick Chubb, Browns (ADP: 141.5, +20.0)

There is still no timetable for the return of Nick Chubb after a brutal knee injury in Week 2 last season, but he is progressing and has resumed running. Chubb has fallen 35 draft spots since early May, with 20 coming in the last month.

His age (29) and recovery are a factor, but if Chubb can return to any semblance of his prior form this season, the Browns RB could be a decent value in the 12th round.

Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (ADP: 210.5, +8.0)

It appears we will not have another return visit from the Tank Bigsby hype train in 2024, as Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley observed that the RB “didn’t have the standout offseason program that he had last year.” Shiply went on to point out an increase in drops, which is something to monitor.

The Jags didn’t acquire any RBs of significance this offseason other than fifth-round draft pick Keilan Robinson, so Bigsby is likely the backup to Travis Etienne, but expect a massive workload for the RB1 with Bigsby only fantasy relevant if an injury were to occur.

Wide Receivers

WR Risers

Demario Douglas, Patriots (ADP: 156.4, -27.2)

Sometimes it just takes a video or photo to get ADP moving and perhaps that was the case for Demario Douglas over the last month. Back on June 8th, the Patriots WR was shown running uphill barefoot catching passes and just a few days ago was seen working out down in Florida with a few other sophomore WRs.

Demario Douglas is looking… 👀

pic.twitter.com/WIo6qhVb60

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 9, 2024

#Patriots Demario Douglas is getting ready for training camp by practicing with #Texans Tank Dell, #Ravens Zay Flowers, and #Chiefs Rashee Rice 🔥 pic.twitter.com/taghhXaPBp

— Patriots Global (@PatriotsGlobal2) July 8, 2024

Or maybe it was The Athletic’s Chad Graff writing that Douglas “was by far the Patriots’ best and most explosive playmaker in practice this spring” that caused over a two-round spike in ADP. That offense is tough to invest in, but at WR71, Douglas is worth a stab in best ball formats.

Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers (ADP: 188.6, -18.9)

With both Mike Evans and Trey Palmer sidelined during the start of the offseason program, Jalen McMillan received more reps with the first team and turned some heads. QB Baker Mayfield praised the rookie, saying he “attacks the ball, catches with his hands. Just explosive, a smooth route runner” via ESPN’s Jenna Laine.

McMillan has a pretty clear path to the WR3 role in Tampa and is very affordable as a current late-16th-round selection, despite his near 20 spot rise over the last four weeks.

Demarcus Robinson, Rams (ADP: 173.4, -12.6)

People seem to forget what Demarcus Robinson did last year down the stretch for LA, or maybe they are starting to remember, which is why he jumped a full round in ADP in four weeks. From Weeks 13-18, the 29-year-old was the WR31 in half-PPR points per game, and WR29 in fantasy points per route run.

While he’s not someone to count on for redraft purposes outside of a flex play or bye-week fill-in, Robinson makes for a solid best ball option for those spike weeks he’ll likely put in at points in the season.

WR Fallers

Javon Baker, Patriots (ADP: 195.7, +12.3)

The Patriots WR room is crowded and has been a wasteland for fantasy in recent seasons, with no wideout finishing above a fantasy WR3 since Julian Edelman in 2019 in half-PPR points per contest. This season, there are several inconsistent WRs and two rookie WRs, all fighting for whatever quality targets they get from either rookie Drake Maye or veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett.

As cloudy as the target tree is at the moment, it’s tough to consider Javon Baker as anything more than a late-round stab in best ball formats only.

Mike Williams, Jets (ADP: 120.0, +11.7)

Mike Williams wasn’t cleared for football activities back in May which may be giving drafters pause, but he’s projected to be ready for the start of the season. He’ll likely be a distant WR2 option behind Garrett Wilson but if he can get and stay healthy, should be in the fantasy WR3 conversation for the very palatable price of a WR5 after falling a full round down to the 10th.

Zay Jones, Cardinals (ADP: 202.3, +10.0)

After experiencing a two-round jump in ADP as the WR who rose the most from May 6th to June 6th, Zay Jones fell 10 spots over the last four weeks. He’ll be fighting for scraps after Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride with the likes of Michael Wilson but is worth a dart throw in best ball leagues as part of a diverse portfolio.

Tight Ends

TE Risers

Noah Fant, Seahawks (ADP: 175.2, -10.4)

This-is-the-year-for-Noah-Fant whispers are building across the fantasy football landscape with each passing week. He has a new coaching staff, one that should throw more often, plus all those pesky TEs (Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson) are out of his way. Noah Fant was re-signed to a two-year deal worth $21M, so they invested in him, and he’s super cheap in all formats.

He’s a great best ball grab as your TE2 at 15.07 to stack with Geno Smith and any Seattle WR, or he would be a nice last-round gamble as a TE2 in redraft leagues.

TE Fallers

Juwan Johnson, Saints (ADP: 208.2. +36.1)

It was announced on June 13th that Juwan Johnson would undergo foot surgery, sidelining him for “a while”, which sent his Underdog ADP into a three-plus round tailspin. Johnson’s absence opens the door for more Taysom Hill shenanigans, plus Foster Moreau enters the conversation for another offseason.

Hill is the only real fantasy-relevant beneficiary, but he’s listed as a QB on Underdog and is currently being drafted as the TE24 in the 17th round according to 4for4’s Multi-site ADP tool.