O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 3

Sep 18, 2024

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 3 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DET	ARI	23	22
10	MIN	HOU	30	20
12	CIN	WAS	32	20
8	BUF	JAX	27	19
5	KC	ATL	22	17
9	PIT	LAC	25	16
2	PHI	NO	18	16
11	NO	PHI	26	15
17	SF	LAR	28	11
19	DEN	TB	29	10
23	ARI	DET	31	8
6	ATL	KC	14	8
14	GB	TEN	20	6
4	IND	CHI	9	5
15	NYJ	NE	17	2
13	CLE	NYG	15	2
3	LAC	PIT	4	1
7	DAL	BAL	6	-1
16	MIA	SEA	13	-3
28	WAS	CIN	24	-4
25	TEN	GB	21	-4
26	JAX	BUF	19	-7
22	BAL	DAL	11	-11
27	CAR	LVR	16	-11
24	SEA	MIA	12	-12
21	TB	DEN	8	-13
18	HOU	MIN	3	-15
20	LVR	CAR	2	-18
30	CHI	IND	10	-20
29	NYG	CLE	5	-24
32	LAR	SF	7	-25
31	NE	NYJ	1	-30

Vikings vs. Texans

The Vikings have had a nightmarish situation at quarterback over the last two years, with injuries robbing them of what was becoming a career year for Kirk Cousins and into this season, with J.J. McCarthy’s year-ender avoiding a quarterback controversy. But what has stayed steady throughout is an offensive line that has been allowed to grow into one of the most cohesive units in the league. They have kept that up through two weeks —though they have shown out particularly in the run game— and now find them up against a Houston Texans team that could easily force this into a shootout.

Targeting the Vikings' passing attack would be moot if we thought Justin Jefferson was going to miss this matchup, but his early departure in Week 2 doesn’t seem to be carrying over into this week. That makes Sam Darnold an interesting streamer for fantasy managers disenfranchised with say, Caleb Williams. Jalen Nailor also has an opportunity to follow up on his 3-54-1 performance, as Jordan Addison is set to miss more time due to his ankle issue.

Bengals vs. Commanders

The Bengals offensive line is definitely improved from last season, with big Trent Brown providing some more consistency over Jonah Williams, who walked in free agency. That said, they also showed that they can be taken advantage of up the middle, as left guard Cordell Volson was consistently overmatched, allowing five pressures to the Chiefs' interior in Week 2. Luckily, the Commanders don’t have a Chris Jones on their team, though they do have Jonathan Allen, who could make for some interesting face-offs to watch on Monday Night.

This line will lose from time to time, but it’s easily better protected along the edges, which should give Joe Burrow plenty of time to work against a Commanders secondary that has allowed a league-high 0.40 EPA per dropback through their first two games. With all due respect to Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones, a healthy Burrow will easily give them the most difficult matchup of their early season.

Burrow is firmly back into your fantasy lineups after a couple of shaky weeks, Ja’Marr Chase is in line for spike week, and the ancillary pieces (Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki) can be targeted in deeper leagues if Tee Higgins misses yet another game.

Bills vs. Jaguars

Josh Hines-Allen once again takes on his namesake here in Week 3, and the Edge rusher has been a terror to start off the year, earning nine pressures through two contests. The only problem is that no other Jaguar has more than five, and they’re facing off against Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins, who both rank within the top five of ESPN’s pass block win rate (PBWR) in 2024.

The two tackles have each allowed one single pressure through two contests, and the team as a whole has allowed a lowly 22.0% pressure rate, the fourth-best mark in the league.

Josh Allen (the quarterback) is an obvious start each and every week, but on top of Dalton Kincaid, we should be looking to fire up Khalil Shakir this week. With Curtis Samuel coming into the year banged up, it seems as if it opened the door for Shakir to line up in more dynamic ways, including some backfield snaps and a prominent slot role. To this point, he has caught all eight of his targets for an 8-96-1 line.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Jets vs. Patriots

With the Patriots' offensive line performing miserably in pass protection, quarterback Jacoby Brissett is taking a ton of hits and has to get the ball out quickly. Two of the five o-line starters have allowed at least seven pressures through two weeks, with right guard Layden Robinson’s 8 leading his position. According to PFF’s numbers, his 92.6 pass-blocking efficiency also predictably trails every other eligible guard in the league.

With defensive linemen in his face on nearly every dropback, Brissett has faced a league-high 44.3% pressure rate. This has forced him to keep the ball near the line of scrimmage, as almost 65% of his passes have gone nine or fewer yards down the field.

We should expect that short, dink-and-dunk offense to continue here in Week 3, with Quinnen Williams making frequent trips through the center of the line. Williams only has four pressures to this point in the season, but he has a whopping 112 of them over the last two years, finishing behind only Aaron Donald and Chris Jones among pressures in 2023 (70).

Colts vs. Bears

Is it Caleb Williams, the offensive line, or Shane Waldron to blame for the Bears' miserable start to a promising season? It’s at least a little bit of both, but the offensive line being terrible once again certainly doesn’t help matters. They rank at or near the bottom in basically any metrics you can find, including adjusted sack rate (13.5% - 32nd), allowed pressure rate (37.5% - 27th), and pass-block win rate (43% - 30th).

This has hindered Williams’ processing, but the rookie QB can take his own chunk of blame, as he has allowed 28.1% of his pressures to turn into sacks, the seventh-highest rate through two weeks.

We can be optimistic that the team will eventually turn things around while also targeting the Colts' D/ST as a high-floor option in Week 3.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DET	ARI	30	29
2	PHI	NO	23	21
3	LAC	PIT	24	21
6	ATL	KC	26	20
12	CIN	WAS	32	20
13	CLE	NYG	27	14
16	MIA	SEA	29	13
9	PIT	LAC	18	9
8	BUF	JAX	15	7
4	IND	CHI	10	6
14	GB	TEN	20	6
5	KC	ATL	9	4
30	CHI	IND	31	1
22	BAL	DAL	22	0
21	TB	DEN	21	0
20	LVR	CAR	19	-1
27	CAR	LVR	25	-2
31	NE	NYJ	28	-3
10	MIN	HOU	5	-5
11	NO	PHI	6	-5
7	DAL	BAL	1	-6
15	NYJ	NE	8	-7
25	TEN	GB	16	-9
18	HOU	MIN	7	-11
23	ARI	DET	11	-12
26	JAX	BUF	12	-14
28	WAS	CIN	14	-14
17	SF	LAR	3	-14
32	LAR	SF	17	-15
19	DEN	TB	4	-15
29	NYG	CLE	13	-16
24	SEA	MIA	2	-22

Lions @ Cardinals

We should probably be considering Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery every-week starts —even on the same fantasy squad— regardless of matchup, but we have a particularly juicy draw this Sunday afternoon.

After finishing 2023 ranked 30th in aFPA to the running back position, they have allowed 137 total yards to Bills running backs and 80 yards to Rams backs (in a blowout) to begin the new year. Allowing 80 total yards to a team with no remaining wide receivers doesn’t seem like a ton, but keep in mind that the Rams’ offensive line is also decimated by injuries, a luxury the Cardinals won’t see again when they host the Lions.

The Detroit O-line remains (in my estimation) the best in the league, and has begun the season with the best adjusted sack rate (2.6%) and sixth-best adjusted line yards (5.07). If you had any trepidation about locking Montgomery in your RB2 slot, I’m here to tell you to get over it.

Chargers @ Steelers

After talking about it in a couple of different spots this week (including our 4for4 Streaming Show with Jennifer Eakins), I’m absolutely all-in on J.K. Dobbins for the rest of the season, and when the inevitable injury comes, I’ll just have to eat crow. A huge reason for that is his offensive line, and it really comes as no surprise that they’re gelling this quickly.

Rashawn Slater was already one of the best tackles in the league, and it seemed inevitable that Joe Alt was going to get up to speed quickly after an incredible college career. But maybe we didn’t realize it was going to be quite this fast. The tackle tandem looks fantastic right out of the gate, and the line as a whole is moving bodies with ease in front of the stellar Dobbins.

The Chargers sit in ninth place in adjusted line yards (4.86) already, but they are far and away the first-ranked team in RB yards before contact (3.32). To put that into context, the Dolphins (easily) led the league in that metric last season, posting a 2.34 line. Some regression is going to hit at some point, particularly to Dobbins’ outlandish 9.9 yards per attempt, but I’m jamming him into any lineups where I have him rostered, regardless of this Steelers defense.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: