NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 9 Best Bets

Week 8 was in the Halloween spirit and kicked off the week with an adrenaline-fueled Redzone witching hour with four total games in the morning slate coming down to a game-ending score in the final ticks of the game, with a Colts fumble return for a touchdown almost making a fifth. The Browns finally looked like a legitimate team, with Jameis Winston injecting life into an offense and being the NFL’s leading passer for the week. The Commanders did their best to hand the Bears a free win, who promptly returned the favor by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the ‘Hail Noah.’

Don’t look now, but we are on back-to-back winning weeks for the first time all season. We ended the week by going 3-2 for +2.1 units! Sides have stalled for the last couple of weeks, but totals continue to pick up the slack by hitting at a 56.7% rate in 2024. Last year, I took Week 9 off entirely while I was on vacation in Maui, but there are no trips planned this year, so let's get to the Week 9 slate.

2024 NFL Week 9 Sides and Totals

Bet #1: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -110 v Jacksonville Jaguars (graded at FanDuel, Available at BetMGM/Caesars/Circa as well, and ESPNBet has -115)

Jalen Hurts remains a quarterback with a simple handicap. Can a team put pressure on him? Jacksonville cannot. They were 25th in quarterback pressure rate before Week 8 and are 17th in PFF pass rush grade. They also blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league, ahead of only the Bills. Jalen Hurts may get two plus matchups in a row, as the Jaguars are still the market’s 31st overall defense. He may also get a third receiving option back in Dallas Goedert this week. If Jalen Hurts has time in the pocket, it's hard to see the Eagles not having success on deep throws against one of the worst safety tandems in Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage.

The Jaguars wide receiving corps took a hit in week 8, with injuries to all three starters in the 11 personnel packages. At the time of placing this bet, Christian Kirk seems like he is out for the season, and Brian Thomas may be missing a week or two. Gabe Davis should be good to go for Week 9, but has been largely ineffective in 2024 (PFF’s 116th WR out of 124 qualifiers).

Let’s talk about the Philadelphia defense, though. Upfront, the Eagles have been stout against the run, and have been 9th EPA/Rush since Week 2 and 5th since Week 3. The Eagles have also been starting Cooper Dejean on 72% or more snaps in the last 3 weeks, and it paid dividends, as they have been 4th in EPA/Dropback since his playing time increased, albeit against mostly inferior opposing quarterbacks. They did, however, hold Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 4.8 yards per play.

Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 units

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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