O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 11

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 11 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Lions vs. Jaguars

Strength in the run- and pass-blocking game have held strong throughout the season, as the Lions haven’t budged out of the No. 1 spot since they were put there back in July. This Week 11 matchup should be quite the doozy against a Jaguars defense that isn’t getting any pressure behind Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, as they rank 30th in adjusted sack rate (4.8%) and 29th in pressure rate (27.6%).

Even when they do manage to get pressure, the secondary isn’t doing much to help them; allowing the fourth-highest QB rating (91.3) and and completion percentage (56.3%) when the quarterback is deemed “under pressure”. On the year, the Jaguars rank last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, ranking no better than 30th against quarterbacks (32nd), running backs (30th), wide receivers (31st), and tight ends (30th).

This is absolutely a “play all the guys” scenario, so if you see “DET” next to a player’s name, it’s a safe assumption they should be in your lineups.

Chargers vs. Bengals

For as explosive and impressive as the Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase connection has been, the back-end of their defensive coverage has been just about as equally unimpressive, particularly over these last three games. The Eagles, Raiders, and Ravens were able to account for 0.21 EPA per dropback (30th), a 72.1% completion rate (26th), and 8.6 yards per attempt (29th), with the Bengals defense ranking near the bottom of the league in this three-week span. A big reason for that was their inability to get after the quarterback; registering only five sacks, each of which came against Gardner Minshew/Desmond Ridder.

This week, they’ll take on Justin Herbert, who quietly ranks 12th in completion percentage (74.3%), fourth in yards per attempt (9.7), and third in QB rating (121.8) when throwing out of a clean pocket, with zero interceptions thrown on those 171 attempts. If Cincinnati continues to leave the pocket un-muddied in this possible shootout, look for Herbert to pop up as a top-10 option, while Ladd McConkey (WR2), Quentin Johnston (WR3), and Will Dissly (TE streaming option) all slot in at their respective viability range.

Eagles vs. Commanders

This Thursday Night, division rivalry should be an absolute banger, and it currently sits at a 48.5 over/under, the second-highest total of the week. While the Commanders did look to bolster their secondary with their trade-deadline acquisition of Marshon Lattimore, their pass rush will have its work cut out for them against the Eagles front. This rings all the more true if left tackle Jordan Mailata is able to suit up.

Through the first 4+ games of the season, Mailata had allowed only one sack on eight pressures before partially tearing his hamstring against the Browns in Week 6. This opened the door for former UDFA Fred Johnson to take over, and things haven’t been stellar: allowing five sacks over the last four games and ranking 82nd/83 qualifying tackles in PFF’s pass-block efficiency metric (89.3).

Even with the pressure (or possibly because of it), Jalen Hurts is still the QB2 in FPPG (23.0), and with a fully healthy A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert combo at his disposal, we should expect fantasy goodness here. There just might be a little more if Mailata mans the blindside.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Dolphins vs. Raiders

We probably don’t need to go too in-depth here. I mean, the Raiders have announced Desmond Ridder —with a career 15:12 TD: INT ratio and taker of four sacks on 21 dropbacks in Week 9— as their starter coming out of the Bye Week, and the Dolphins are scratching and clawing to stay alive in the playoff race.

The Dolphins are blitzing at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL on third downs (40.2%) —a down which we expect to see a lot of out of the Raiders—and would benefit from ratcheting that up against a Las Vegas team that completes a paltry 41.1% (29th) of their passes when under pressure. Of course, most of that was with Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell, but Ridder was pressured on 42.9% of his dropbacks in Week 9, resulting in four sacks and a 60% completion rate.

Update: Gardner Minshew was (re)named the starter, and this is still a great play.

Packers @ Bears

We’ll see if a change of Offensive Coordinator will help scheme up some things to mask their offensive line, but I’m doubtful. Caleb Williams has faced 124 pressures to this point in the season, the fifth-most in the league, while turning those pressures into sacks at a 30.6% rate, the fourth-highest rate. Shane Waldron was rightfully canned after developing an offensive scheme that showcased Williams’ weaknesses instead of embracing his strengths, but that doesn’t excuse the offensive line’s play, or Williams’ propensity to take sacks.

Due at least in part to continued injuries to the O-line, they rank near the bottom of nearly any metric you can find, including RB yards before contact (1.35 - 27th) and adjusted sack rate (12.1% - 32nd). The Packers have one of the best D/ST floors of the week.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Chiefs @ Bills

While Isiah Pacheco has been cleared to return from the IR due to his leg injury, his timetable to return was around late November, so that should give us an idea as to when he’ll be up to full speed. That feels extremely unlikely to come into play here in Week 11, which means we get at least one more week of Kareem Hunt carrying the full workload, as unlikely as that sentence was to type as recently as four weeks ago.

Hunt has been nothing if not consistent with his opportunity, ranking 11th among 64 qualifying backs in stuffed rate (14.4%) but 59th in breakaway run rate (3.3%), essentially getting 3-6 yards on every single run. But hey, it works for the Chiefs offense and more importantly, our fantasy teams, as he hasn’t fallen below 12 half-PPR points since his first game back in Kansas City (Week 4, 9.5 points). Fire him up as a high-end RB2 in this great matchup against the Bills.

Colts @ Jets

The Colts' offensive line isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders right now, but the same can be said about the Jets’ run defense right now. Currently ranked 20th in RB aFPA, New York has allowed 155.8 rushing yards per game (28th) since Week 6, allowing four touchdowns to RBs, and three rushers to top 95 yards in five games. While Week 6 might seem like an arbitrary cut-off, it’s the first game the team played after firing Robert Saleh, so there’s some underlying correlation here.

With the Jets offense looking equally lost, we should expect this one to stay close throughout, which helps a Jonathan Taylor game script as he looks to continue operating as a 20+ opportunity RB1.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Tony Pollard, Titans
• Travis Etienne, Jaguars
• Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
• Jaylen Warren, Steelers