10 Things You Need to Know About Week 15 for Fantasy Football

We finally made it to the fantasy playoffs. Start/sit decisions are extremely important this time of the year. So, I’m starting with the passing and rushing matchups this week before getting into the rest of the things you need to know for Week 15. Good luck in round one of the playoffs!

Week 15 Passing Efficiency Matchups

The Ravens have the best passing matchup on paper this week, with their game against the Giants hitting the 92nd percentile over the past decade. The issue is they have a similarly good rushing matchup and have hit a positive pass rate over expectation (PROE) in only two games this season. In a game where they’re favored by a ridiculous 15 points, we shouldn’t expect a lot of Lamar Jackson pass attempts. Jackson is a must-start, but you should have better options than ancillary Ravens receivers like Rashod Bateman.

The 49ers, Jets, and Lions all have 80+ percentile matchups. The Jets are particularly interesting as they’re below average in passing EPA. But as someone who bet on C.J. Stroud and Will Levis in consecutive weeks against this Jaguars pass defense, the paper matchup doesn’t always hit. You’re starting both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, but that’s about it. Jauan Jennings looks like a great play this week against the Rams, particularly given how many points were put up in the Bills/Rams game last week. And you’re starting all of your Lions, but I’ll get into how Tim Patrick impacts Jameson Williams later in this article.

Week 15 Rushing Efficiency Matchups

Brian Robinson looks like a must-start this week, with the Commanders’ matchup against the Saints in the 98th percentile over the past decade. Robinson looked to be over his ankle injury prior to the Commanders’ bye, and Austin Ekeler remains on injured reserve. Both the Ravens and Eagles have 90+ percentile matchups but you’re obviously starting both Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.

Chuba Hubbard is a bit more interesting. With Jonathon Brooks, unfortunately, re-injuring his knee, Hubbard looks like an excellent play against the Cowboys’ run defense. Alvin Kamara, Rico Dowdle, and whoever leads the 49ers’ backfield also have great matchups this week. Most reporting suggests that it will be Patrick Taylor, which makes sense on a short week. Taylor will be tough to trust in the first round of the playoffs. I might lean another way if you have a viable alternative, especially since we could see both Deebo Samuel and Israel Abanikanda get some RB snaps.

The Problem with A.J. Brown

Getting my biases out of the way, A.J. Brown is my favorite player in the NFL. And so, this is more airing my grievances about the Eagles’ offensive tendencies than anything else. The Eagles are last in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). When you have Saquon Barkley breaking off 70-yard runs seemingly every game, you just don’t have to pass. But this comes at the expense of fantasy goodness from their top WRs.

Since the Eagles’ bye in Week 5, Brown has earned 31.3% of team targets. That is truly elite target earning. But it’s ultimately only meant just north of six targets per game. The graph below shows team pass attempts per game on the x-axis and air yards per game on the y-axis. And we’re only looking at Weeks 6-14. You’ll find the Eagles alone in the bottom-left corner. The Eagles have averaged almost six fewer pass attempts per game than the 31st-place Packers.

If we extrapolate Brown’s target earning onto other NFL teams, he would get about four more targets on the average NFL team and six more on the 1st-place Browns. There’s not much we can do about this, other than hope the Eagles are forced to pass more than they’d otherwise like. That seems like a tall task for the Steelers who are likely to be without George Pickens again in Week 15. The Steelers also have one of the best defenses in the league. So, this could turn into a low-scoring slog with the second-lowest game total of the week. Brown is one of the best WRs in the world and can break off a long TD at any moment. But we might need to continue tempering our expectations with this lack of volume.

The Problem with the Packers

Similar to the Eagles, the Packers have only three games with a positive PROE this year. In a close loss to the Lions last week, the Packers passed at a rate 6.3% below expectation. That was the 6th-most run-heavy rate in Week 14. The graph below shows PROE on the x-axis and how much that fluctuates weekly on the y-axis. You’ll find the Packers in the top-left, with their weekly fluctuations mostly stemming from their Malik Willis starts earlier in the season.

The Packers finished last week as both the 8th-most efficient passing team and the 8th-most efficient rushing team. So, the Josh Jacobs ground attack was working. But the issue with leaning into the run is that their pass plays earned nearly 0.20 more EPA per play. Even finishing in a similar percentile for efficiency, you’re leaving points on the table by establishing the run to this extent. The Packers need to give Jordan Love enough opportunities to win them a game, especially last week against the Lions. And most importantly, they’re making life more difficult for managers of Packers’ receivers.

Sam Darnold: Deep Throw King

Sam Darnold has completed 55.8% of his 20+ air-yard throws this season. Among QBs with at least 50 of those attempts, that is the highest completion percentage over the past decade. There is a lot of credit to go around for this accomplishment. Obvious credit to Darnold for his accuracy on these attempts, but also to the ball-tracking of both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and the scheme by Kevin O’Connell. However, as the Vikings decide whether to extend Darnold or transition to J.J. McCarthy, I hope they’re hesitant about this production persisting.

Over the past decade, we only have three QBs with a 50%+ completion percentage on 20+ air-yard throws that had a qualifying season the following year. That’s obviously an incredibly small sample. But all three QBs saw a decline in their completion percentage the following year, with massive drops by both Matt Ryan in 2017 (52.6% to 27.4%) and C.J. Stroud this year (52.2% to 33.3%). Among all qualifying QBs, the correlation year-over-year is only 0.16, which is positive but fairly weak. That is to say, history is not on Darnold’s side for 2025. But let’s hope that regression holds off until next season for those with Jefferson and Addison in the playoffs.

Kyler Murray: Design Him Some Runs

The thesis behind drafting Kyler Murray this offseason was two-fold. The first part was the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the ascension of Trey McBride would boost passing efficiency. And the second part was Murray’s dynamic rushing ability. Well, all unrealistic expectations around Harrison aside, we haven’t seen the Murray rushing we wanted.

Murray’s scrambling has been there. He averaged over three scrambles per game in 2020, but otherwise, he’s been around two per game over his career. That’s exactly where he’s at in 2024. The issue then is his designed runs. He hasn’t finished a season with fewer than three designed runs per game, with his peak nearing five in 2020. He’s below two designed runs per game this season. The easy-button in this offense is relatively short throws to McBride, with Harrison mostly having to earn his keep on difficult routes to the outside. Let’s scheme Murray up some runs to add another easy-button to this offense.

Saints TEs without Taysom

If you’re in terrible trouble at the TE position or play in 2-TE leagues, Juwan Johnson might be able to bail you out in the playoffs. Last week was the first full game since Taysom Hill was placed on injured reserve. And Juwan Johnson dominated the snaps and targets for the Saints. He earned 49 snaps and five targets, according to PFF. He actually ran the 2nd-most routes on the team, with his 28 routes narrowly behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 31. Foster Moreau was also involved with 15 snaps and two targets, as was Dallin Holker who earned a target on only three snaps.

With the additional snaps, Johnson earned a season-high 50 receiving yards in Week 14, to go along with his third touchdown of the season. I believe that Johnson is a talented player. He’s earned an above-average open score from ESPN Analytics in three consecutive seasons, with his 62-score ranking 11th this season among all TEs. The main issue is Derek Carr’s hand fracture on his non-throwing hand. If Carr is out, I’m not interested in any Saints’ receiver. But if we get Carr back in the short term, Johnson could be a fill-in TE2.

Falcons Learned About 2-TE Sets

Out of seemingly nowhere, the Falcons used more 2-TE sets last week. From Weeks 1-13, the Falcons had only 10 total dropbacks with 2 TEs on the field, according to SIS. That was easily the lowest number in the league. For context, the Chiefs had 193 such dropbacks over that same timeframe. But the Falcons had six dropbacks in 2-TE sets in Week 14 alone. That was still below the NFL average of eight for the week, but much closer than usual.

The player who this should hurt the most is Ray-Ray McCloud. He has the highest slot rate among qualifying Falcons’ receivers and should lose snaps to Drake London and Darnell Mooney operating as the two WRs in heavier sets. But McCloud had his best game of the season last week, hitting an 8/98/0 line on 11 targets. Now, there are other reasons to suspect that McCloud’s performance was unsustainable. I wouldn’t expect him to out-target Drake London in most weeks for a start. But this is another reason for concern if the Falcons increase their 2-TE sets further.

Tim Patrick: A Nuisance for Jameson Williams

With Kalif Raymond landing on injured reserve, Tim Patrick has stepped in for the Lions. And he’s been a thorn in the side of Jameson Williams. Over the past two weeks, Patrick ran only six fewer routes than Williams. And he’s even eating into 2-WR sets. Williams has 15 snaps in heavier packages over the past two weeks, but Patrick has seven of his own. With Raymond going down, I was hopeful that we could consolidate targets to only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta, Gibbs, and Montgomery. Which, to be honest, isn’t that consolidated. But Patrick has been earning enough targets to keep down the relative volume for everyone.

Titans Late Down Failures

Week 14 was a brutal loss for the Titans. After what felt like a commanding 6-0 lead at the end of the third quarter, the Jaguars scored all 10 of their points in the 4th quarter to seal the win. Will Levis was clearly hampered in the second half of the game. He took a massive shot on the final play of the first half but finished the game despite his shoulder clearly bothering him. And so, his play being incredibly poor in the second half requires that context. But their late down failures in Week 14 continued a trend for the entire season.

The Titans failed on all three of their 4th-down attempts last week. The graph below looks at efficiency and success on 3rd- and 4th-down plays this season. You’ll find the Titans in the bottom-left corner. They are bottom-three in both EPA and success rate on late-down plays. The ability to consistently convert these plays is so crucial in the NFL. It’s why the Chiefs continue to win ugly games without explosive plays (in addition to some dark magic). The inability to extend drives takes away volume opportunities for every fantasy player on the team.