Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Dec 12, 2024

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

All good things come to an end eventually. The run from Week 4 to 13 was incredible. 10-of-12 weeks were profitable and +33.91 units during that span. I will remember that run for a while.

Week 14 was a harsh dose of reality. I got absolutely curb-stomped with some brutally close losses.

Week 14 Review

Josh Jacobs O 68.5 rushing yards
Chuba Hubbard U 14.5 carries
Caleb Williams over 32.5 pass attempts
Jerome Ford U 25.5 rushing yards
Justin Herbert over 32.5 pass attempts
George Kittle over 54.5 receiving yards
Deebo Samuel over 8.5 rushing yards
Braelon Allen under 2.5 receptions

Jacobs had 18 carries against one of the most injury-depleted fronts in the league and somehow managed just 66 yards. Chuba had more than 15 carries in the first half, with Jonathan Brooks tearing his ACL again on his first carry of the game. Caleb Williams was in negative game script literally the entire game but the Bears couldn’t sustain drives, running just 49 offensive plays with the starters. He also took 7 sacks. Abysmal outing.

Jerome Ford split carries nearly evenly with Nick Chubb two weeks after being out-carried 21-4 in the exact same matchup. The Chiefs milked the last 6 minutes plus of clock to avoid letting Herbert get the ball back, which would have easily allowed him to hit his over. Kittle and Deebo both cashed, while Braelon Allen caught two passes on the first drive. He then dropped a pass and saw only two more targets the rest of the game. When Rodgers throws the ball 40 times, it’s pretty tough for anyone to go under their receiving prop.

With that nightmare of a week in the rearview, I’m excited for Week 15, with tons of good games and juicy props to get back after it.

Week 15 Player Prop Bets

Brock Purdy over 246.5 passing yards (-115 at DK)

Played on 12/11 at 246.5, fine to 255.5. Purdy played his best game of the season against the Rams last time around, going for 292 yards without George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, or Christian McCaffrey (He did have Aiyuk, but he was playing pretty poorly). Purdy now has Kittle and Deebo alongside the ascending Jauan Jennings.

This matchup lines up with what Purdy has done best this season, which is shredding zone coverage at the league's highest yards per attempt (9.6) and 8th-best completion rate (73%). The Rams have played zone nearly 80% of the time this season.

Beyond the matchup advantages, the 49ers will be without their top two running backs (CMC & Mason), and Isaac Guerendo was banged up at the end of last week and hasn't practiced at all this week. It seems unlikely he will be 100%, even if he does play. Their options are now Patrick Taylor, Israel Abanikanda, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn. While I believe most running backs can succeed in a Shanahan system, given the opportunity, these guys are either brand new or have barely gotten any run. Expecting them to come in and handle a big workload on a short week seems a bit far-fetched.

This game could also turn into a high-scoring affair with the Rams OL, Puka, and Kupp all finally healthy. The Niners also may be without Nick Bosa as well. Lots of outs to this over with pure efficiency, and potential volume via no reliable running game or negative game script.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit