NFL Week 10 Lookahead Lines

Nov 07, 2020

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Week 10 lookahead is here. You can find the lines analyzed below on FanDuel. I am coming off a 1-2-1 week in getting closing line value (CLV). I gave out Bucs -4 (currently -4.5), Jets +7 (currently +7.5), Titans -6.5 (currently -6.5), and Panthers +10 (currently +10.5). The Bucs game got as high as -5, and the Jets have been bouncing back and forth between +7 and +7.5, so that one is dependent on when you bet it. This week was tough grading because other books opened up and you got the same lines as I gave out.

For the Jets in general, I won’t be writing about them much anymore unless I think we are getting true value. That team is hard to bet on, going 1-7 against the spread this year with the lone cover coming from a game against the Bills, who had multiple chances to score and cover but didn’t. The Jets produced four yards in the second half in that game—that’s not a typo. I know some shops are offering a prop bet on whether or not the Jets will go 0-16, so if you want to play it, don't wait. Each week the odds decrease. PointsBet is currently offering an odds boost for this giving you +300. On the flip side, wait to bet the Jets NO on going 0-16, as these odds will also keep decreasing. Outside of the Patriots this week, I don’t see any real chance of them winning.

Bengals @ Steelers (-10.5, -110)

I'm not sure how many of you gamble hardcore but everyone knows the Steelers are undefeated. Why does that matter? You are going to start paying a point spread tax, meaning the spread for the undefeated team will be jacked up a point or two more (I am not saying play Cowboys for Week 9, as they are 0-8 against the spread and are Jets level bad). For every game the Steelers keep winning to stay undefeated, you will have that tax until they lose a couple of games. Since 2006, undefeated NFL teams that are at least 7-0 are 41.2% against the spread and 37.9% against the spread as road favorites (via Ralph Michaels). For the Steelers, you have to wonder if this team gets more and more tired. They had a very early bye, and players over the years have come out and said the bye is super helpful later in the year. This will be an issue for the Steelers as the number of games continues to rise and this team under head coach Mike Tomlin is notorious for playing down to inferior teams.

On the flip side, the Bengals are coming off a bye. In Week 8, versus the Titans, the Bengals were missing three offensive linemen, and, yet, the Titans couldn’t muster any sort of a pass rush. The Bengals needed a bye this week to get healthy. Cincinnati this year is a quiet 6-1-1 against the spread. The Bengals offense is ranked first in plays per drive and they are 13th in drive success rate, per Football Outsiders.

My bet for this game is twofold—Steelers now and Bengals later, with the emphasis on the Bengals. The one time the Bengals faced a really good defense this year is when they played the Ravens—they weren't competitive and got smoked that game. With the Steelers most likely dominating the Cowboys this weekend, my prediction for this game goes to nearly 14, and the point spread tax really kicks in this game.

Bills at Cardinals (-2.5, -115)

The Cardinals face the Dolphins in Week 9, who are coming off a game where they scored two touchdowns off of four turnovers, and nearly had a third score that was stopped at the one-yard line. Arizona should take care of business this week and beat the Dolphins relatively comfortably. In Week 8 versus the Seahawks, the Cardinals defense lost a lot of players in the game but still won. The week off will allow this team to recover and be ready for the game.

I have serious concerns regarding the Bills. Josh Allen hasn’t looked spectacular since Week 4. He is ranked sixth in EPA+CPOE composite out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps—pretty good for the year. Since Week 5, however, he is ranked 18th out of 28 quarterbacks. Also not helping matters is the Bills' high-end defense hasn’t played well this year. They rank 25th in plays per drive, 21st in time of possession, and 24th in drive success rate. This defense is having a tough time getting off the field and they are asking Allen to do more—I'm not sure if he's capable of carrying this team.

Lastly, the Cardinals defense isn’t spectacular—average to below-average in most metrics. However, if the Bills can’t contain Russell Wilson in Week 9, expect Kyler Murray and Co. to do something similar, especially if Wilson scrambles well.

Pick: Give me the Cardinals -2.5 under the key number of 3.

Broncos at Raiders (-4, -110)

I didn’t like the Raiders at the beginning of the year and was bashing their defense. I look like a dummy for now but I'm still not sold on this team because I need to see them put it all together for more than one week in a row—I think that will happen this week against the Chargers. We know the Chargers can move the ball through the air and they will put some points on this Raiders defense but the reason I want them is that they are starting to look better and better each week. The media will start to fall in love with them if they get a win this week.

The Raiders' offensive line is currently ranked seventh in Justin Edwards's offensive line rankings, while the Broncos are 31st in defense aFPA. The main issue with the Broncos is who have they defeated? In Week 1 they got lucky and only lost by two points. Their victory against the Patriots was due to New England having massive COVID issues for a team that thrives on routine. Last week's win over the Chargers was extremely lucky. The Broncos had a 4.4% win probability entering the fourth quarter and an 11.3% win probability on the last play of the game. This Broncos team doesn’t have a convincing win on their resume, and it's hard to back a team led by Drew Lock. I predict the Broncos lose to the Falcons this week and the market overreacts to them losing, moving this line for us. The Broncos scream lookahead/letdown spot versus the Falcons, who have been playing well since Dan Quinn was fired and are one bad Todd Gurley decision away from being 3-0 under the new regime.

To my surprise, Derek Carr is fifth in EPA+CPOE composite, while Drew Lock ranks 31st (out of 33 quarterbacks). The Raiders offense is humming right now, ranking seventh in drive success rate, second in time of possession, third in plays per drive, seventh in points per drive, and third in yards per drive. What does all that mean? Las Vegas control the ball for long stretches and play keep away. This Raiders team has been getting better each week and this line will be closer to -7 by kickoff. Lastly, Jon Gruden has done well against the spread in the division. Since 2018, (Gruden’s first year with the Raiders), the Raiders are 8-5 against the spread. Take out the Chiefs and the Raiders are 6-2 against the spread under Gruden in the division.

Pick: I like the Raiders -4.

Saints

Not an official play because it isn’t up on FanDuel, but I have seen Saints -7 versus the 49ers next week. Take the Saints after the debacle from the 49ers on Thursday, assuming you can get the Saints under -10.