Preseason DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Washington at Patriots

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Creating the best lineup for the first single-game slate of the year will be as tough as any week in the regular season. It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Remember that the captain spot is different on DraftKings than on FanDuel. The captain spot on DraftKings delivers fantasy points and prices multiplied by 1.5. The MVP spot on FanDuel will score at the same rate but without the increased pricing for the player slot. All flex positions score normally.

Vegas Total and Spread

Washington is favored by two points and the game has an implied point total of 34.5 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Game flow isn't going to dictate much of the playing time in this game.

Cheap/Unique Stack Options

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Patriots Def ($12,000 FD/$7,600) / J.J. Taylor ($12,000 FD/$7,600) / Gunner Olszewski($12,000 FD/$7,600)

Knowing how the Patriots like to play offense, there should be a fair amount of targets going to the running backs and slot wide receiver. Taylor has been nicknamed "little Dion" after Dion Lewis and is essentially James White's direct backup. Olszewski is the backup slot receiver behind Jakobi Meyers. Both players should get work into the second half and are returner options. Stacking them with the Patriots defense could pay off in a low-scoring environment.

Volatile Plays

Steven Montez ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

It's unclear at the moment how much Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke will play but they are reportedly competing for the starting job. Heinicke likely plays into the second quarter but the QB3 Kyle Allen is "day to day" with an injury. That makes Montez an intriguing dart throw. He ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 230 lbs and his 59 mph throwing velocity is in the 90th percentile. Washington beat writers have suggested he could earn a similar type of role to Taysom Hill. If Allen doesn't play, Montez becomes a Captain candidate as he possesses the profile we want to chase at quarterback.

UPDATE: Kyle Allen is out for this game.

N'Keal Harry ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

Is this the year Harry finally breaks through? The camp reports have been mostly positive and I'm sure the team would love for him to boost his trade value. The concern for him is playing time. Nelson Agholor is unlikely to play and that may bump Harry up into the starting lineup. Kristian Wilkerson has also seen extended action with the ones and has "made some impressive grabs".

Tre Nixon and Isaiah Zuber are the names standing out behind them. Nixon wasn't all that productive in college but has "showcased his speed" in camp. If he can get loose for a few, he could break the slate on only a few targets. Unlike Nixon, Zuber actually broke out in college at 19 years old. Zuber has made some outstanding plays in camp but has also struggled with drops. If that carries over to the game, it could affect his playing time.

Going deeper, Devin Ross has caught multiple touchdowns from Hoyer in practice but has also been battling injuries. His profile also isn't all that intriguing to me. Knowing how the Patriots value special teams, I'd probably prefer Marvin Hall over Ross. Hall is a proven burner, who like Nixon, only needs a few targets. It's worth mentioning he posted a 100-yard game last season filling in for the Lions.

UPDATE: Looks like Harry is starting. Bump Wilkerson up.

Dyami Brown ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

With Curtis Samuel on the PUP list, rookie Dyami Brown has taken advantage and built up some hype. Some beat writers believe Brown and Cam Sims have already locked up roster spots behind Terry McLaurin, Samuel and Adam Humphries. However, Brown could still get some extra playing time as a rookie the team hopes to lean on. Sims is one of the team's better options to find the end zone at 6'4" and 212 lbs—the other is Antonio Gandy-Golden. Gandy-Golden was a fourth-round pick in 2020. Unfortunately, he was held back by a limited training camp and he also dealt with injuries. He's not an uber athlete but he has an outstanding production profile. He's my favorite option outside of Brown.

DeAndre Carter is said to be ahead of Steven Sims as the favorite to earn the returner spot. Coach Rivera believes Carter has the ability to fill in at X receiver as well. Kelvin Harmon has been competitive in camp but he may end up being the odd man out. Harmon has good size and was a starter in 2019. A big performance is possible here and would do wonders for his chances of making the squad.

Going deeper, Dax Milne has generated some buzz of late. He has the profile of a slot receiver and looks like he'll land on the team's practice squad. Isaiah Wright and Tony Brown were both on the team last season but neither has an overly interesting profile. Milne is the one most likely to produce out of this group.

Sammis Reyes ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

In preseason DFS, playing tight ends isn't usually profitable but Reyes isn't your typical case. Washington runs their offense through tight end Logan Thomas and like Thomas, Reyes is an athletic freak. Reyes has been a mismatch in camp and has found the endzone a few times. Fellow rookie John Bates has also gotten work with the first team but Bates already locked up a spot on the roster. Reyes should get plenty of action in this one, especially after missing some time with a leg injury.

Captain/MVP Picks

Mac Jones ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

If we get any type of word that Cam Newton will see extended playing time, he becomes a top candidate because of his dual-threat ability. It's more likely that Jones is the one that leads the team in playing time as they need to get him experience in case they can't rely on Newton all season. Brian Hoyer has exclusively worked with the scout team and backups so far. It sounds like the plan may be to only roll with Jones and Newton on the active roster. Kendrick Bourne has been Jones's favorite target in camp but he probably doesn't get much playing time. If Wilkerson starts the game for Agholor, I'll look to stack Harry, Zuber, Nixon and Olszewski with Jones. Hoyer will probably close out the game with the aforementioned deep options like Ross and Hall.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

Beat writers suggest Damien Harris and Sony Michel will be the 1A and 1B runners in the backfield, making it a bit uncertain who will actually see playing time in this game. Michel will likely get more run but may also get yanked out early considering his past health issues. Brandon Bolden just returned from injury himself but the long-time Patriot may be on the outs. It's believed that the door is open for the rookie to earn the final roster spot. My guess is the majority of snaps go to the combination of Stevenson and J.J. Taylor.

Lamar Miller ($12,000 FD/ $7,600 DK)

The RB3 is usually the target in these first preseason games but Peyton Barber isn't all that exciting of a play. It wouldn't be shocking if he fell into the end zone but he averaged under three yards per carry last season. Lamar Miller is a much more interesting veteran option. Miller is said to be having a strong camp and is more of a threat to do damage with his touches.

Behind Miller is rookie Jaret Patterson and veteran Jonathan Williams. Patterson is a limited athlete but proved to be a workhorse in college, despite his smaller stature. Williams has been around the league for a few years but hasn't made much of an impact. Patterson is the most interesting option behind Miller but it's likely to be a split with Williams likely getting any goal-line work.