Week 15 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 14 Record: 6-1
Season Record: 62-40
It was a much better record in Week 14, and it showed in my simple two-prop plays. I would like to thank Brevin Jordan for topping his fantasy points prop 15 minutes into Sunday’s action.
Week 15 Picks
Taysom Hill Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 49.5 Rushing Yards
Taysom Hill has 174 rushing yards in two starts, so the over seems like an easy cash. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still good against the run and are more willing to allow opponents to run because the Bucs offense is ripping through defenses. I would pick this prop well into the 50-yard range because I expect Hill to have set running plays and have to scramble from Tampa’s pass rush. Hill has the same rushing upside (and probably more) as Josh Allen, who became the fourth quarterback to pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 in a single game in Week 14 against... Tampa Bay.
Chase Claypool Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 74.8 Receiving Yards
Chase Claypool has gone over 53 receiving yards in three of his past four games in large part because Ben Roethlisberger has been a top-10 QB in fantasy production, and the defense has been battered with injuries and illness. The Tennessee Titans have allowed two or more receivers to eclipse 53 yards in the same game eight times this season. A list of some names to accomplish the feat: Rondale Moore, Freddie Swain, Keelan Cole and Laquon Treadwell.
Darnell Mooney Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 61.4 Receiving Yards
I will take two bad games of Darnell Mooney to get this prop line. Prior to collecting two catches for 46 yards the last two games, Mooney had at least 41 receiving yards in four consecutive games. The Minnesota Vikings have arguably the worst secondary in football. With Allen Robinson likely to miss Monday’s game, Mooney will be fed a healthy amount of targets.
Ben Roethlisberger Over 250.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 267.1 Passing Yards
Since their Week 7 bye, Ben Roethlisberger has surpassed 251 passing yards in four-of-six games played compared to just one during the first six games of 2021. The emergence of TE Pat Freiermuth and consistency from WRs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have stabilized the Steelers' passing game. It also helps that RB Najee Harris is a complete running back and can handle a heavy workload. Against a similarly poor Titans pass defense in 2020, Roethlisberger threw for 268 yards.
Ryan Tannehill Over 18.5 Completions
- 4for4 Projection: 20.8 Completions
The Titans are one-point road favorites against a desperate Steelers team. The Steelers can shut down the journeymen Titans backfield and force the former wideout-turned-quarterback to pass the ball. Ryan Tannehill has completed 19+ passes eight times this season; five times in wins and four times in road games—three of which were wins. These are very specific numbers, but even when Derrick Henry was healthy, Tannehill was trusted to throw the ball in winning situations.
Rob Gronkowski Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 57.7 Receiving Yards
Outside of running slower than my 70-year-old father, Rob Gronkowski looks like vintage Gronk. He is still difficult to tackle in open space and has been racking up yards after the catch (YAC) the past month. The last time Gronkowski finished with fewer than 54 receiving yards in a full game was in Week 2. Leonard Fournette did not practice Thursday and is looking less likely to play this week. If Fournette does not play, I expect the Buccaneers to pass even more than they normally do. No team has passed more than Tampa Bay in a neutral game script since Week 10. Gronk’s body has failed him a lot in the last few years, so any Gronkowski play carries risk.
Antonio Gibson Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 61.7 Rushing Yards
The Eagles have one of the better run defenses in the NFL and are coming off a bye. With injuries plaguing Washington's receiver room, eliminating Antonio Gibson and the run game has to be a top priority. The Dallas Cowboys did so in Week 14, and the Eagles get to attempt to do so in two of the next three games. My biggest concern with taking the under is Gibson’s workload. He gets the ball. A lot. At a certain point, Washington's offense will have to throw the ball, though, as Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense get to tee off on the defense.
