Week 3 PrizePicks Prop Picks
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
New at 4for4: We now have a PrizePicks Prop Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 2 PrizePicks Record: 6-4
Season Record: 10-8
A couple of picks could have gone either way last week, including James Robinson over 16.5 receiving yards (17), Ben Roethlisberger under 25.5 pass completions (27), and Russell Gage under 42.5 receiving yards (injury). The goal is to be better than .500 every week with PrizePicks requiring picks to be paired. This is a learning experience with a new product and even 4for4’s projections are not perfect, but there is a reason they are the best in the business—consistency.
Week 3 Picks
Joe Burrow Over 249.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 251.0
This is the first of two meetings between the Bengals and Steelers this season. While both teams have strong running backs to lean on, each offense has made their mark in the passing game. Joe Burrow showed stones in Week 2 by driving the Bengals' offense down the field twice after throwing three interceptions on three consecutive passes. The Steelers defense has allowed one 100-yard receiver, two receiving touchdowns and two wideouts to average over 20 yards per catch. The Steelers entered 2021 as a pass-funnel defense and it has remained true through two weeks.
Ja'Marr Chase Over 13.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 14.6
Ja'Marr Chase is the Bengals' leader in Average Depth of Target (aDOT), has seen 44.3% of the team’s air yards and has topped 13.0 fantasy points in each of the first two games. The Steelers' defense has allowed receptions of 34 and 61, with the 61-yarder going for a score. Accounting for three excellent receivers is difficult for any team, and the Bengals offer that challenge every week. Chase had a 42-yard touchdown in Week 2.
Matt Ryan Under 20.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 16.7
Matt Ryan has not topped his Week 3 fantasy points projection in either game because he faced above-average defenses and plays behind a questionable offensive line. The Giants entered 2021 ranked ninth against quarterbacks in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) and have allowed 20.25 fantasy points per game to the position so far. Those totals included Teddy Bridgewater’s rushing totals and Taylor Heinicke’s career-best game. Heinicke only put up 20 points despite throwing for 336 yards and a 2:1 TD-to-INT clip. He also only had six yards rushing. Matt Ryan is a statue and has 11 yards on the ground this season.
Color me skeptical but without a consistent second pass-catching option, Ryan will struggle enough to cap his fantasy point production.
Daniel Jones Over 25.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 34.7
Daniel Jones has shown he is comfortable as a runner (unless the turf monster gets him). He has topped this line both weeks this season, but this is the first week Jones does not face a good defense. Jones will have more time in the pocket to throw but his pocket presence is questionable. The Falcons entered 2021 ranked 31st in aFPA against quarterbacks and allowed Jalen Hurts to rush for 62 yards in Week 1.
Michael Carter Under 28.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 22.1
I like Michael Carter as the best back for the Jets going forward but one solid week does not mean his role is set in stone. The Broncos have allowed one rusher to top Carter’s PrizePicks prop in two games, with both games on the road. It is safe to project that the Broncos will stack the box and force rookie QB Zach Wilson to throw the ball. Denver is a 10.5-point home favorite and Carter’s production is more likely to come in the passing game. He leads all Jets backs with five targets.
James White Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 44.7
The leading receiver for the Patriots is James White. He has topped his Week 3 4for4 projection in both games this season. His 94 yards is one more than Nelson Agholor, and only Jakobi Meyers has more targets. Mac Jones has targeted the running back position at least seven times per game with White the target 13 times (19 RB targets). Christian McCaffrey had 65 receiving yards in Week 2 in a positive game script against the Saints' defense. White has shown he will be on the field no matter the situation or score.
Javonte Williams Under 1.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 1.4
Javonte Williams has been out-targeted 5-2 by teammate Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. Williams has also seen just one target each week. The Broncos are heavy home favorites, have four receivers/tight ends to target in the passing game and should not need to utilize both backs in the passing game to achieve success.
