O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 11

Nov 16, 2022

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Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 11 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Eagles @ Colts

The Philadelphia Eagles had their sloppiest game of the year, and though they were the victims of some pretty borderline calls towards the stretch end of Monday Night Football, they also earned their first loss of the 2022 season. They’re in for a bounce-back opportunity on Sunday afternoon versus a Colts defense that is susceptible to the pass, particularly against the tight end position. The Eagles have made the TE a featured part of their offense through multiple quarterbacks and coaching regimes, but they’ll have to transfer some of that usage away from the position in the immediate future, though, as Dallas Goedert’s (IR) replacements for the time being are Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. Not to besmirch these fine young men’s names, but one is a 2021 UDFA (Stoll), the other is a 2022 sixth-rounder (Calcaterra), and both have combined for nine career receptions.

With Goedert making his hay over the short middle of the field —44% of his 52 targets and 40% of his receptions have come over the middle and less than ten air yards down the field— it seems feasible that another member of the receiving room will help complement the two young TEs in their quest to replace the veteran. Some extra crossing routes from speed demon DeVonta Smith never hurt anyone, but this could open the door for more usable weeks from Quez Watkins, who is fresh off of a season-high four receptions and 80 yards.

The Eagles' offensive line will have their hands full against the likes of DeForest Buckner and Yannick Ngakoue, but as long as the unit remains healthy, they open the door for Philadelphia to run the offense any way they see fit, even with Dallas Goedert in street clothes.

49ers @ Cardinals

Even though the Cardinals blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL through 10 weeks, they rank a middling 13th in pressure rate (34.2%) and 26th in adjusted sack rate. This is leaving them susceptible on the back end, which is, in turn, allowing offenses the third-most points in the league and the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points.

According to 4for4’s Team Stat Explorer, teams have been taking advantage of Arizona’s inability to get after the quarterback, as their defense allows a successful play (a play with an EPA greater than 0) at the highest percentage in the league while teams have the second-highest pass rate over expectation when playing them.

While most people justifiably look at the 49ers as a run-first team, they actually rank seventh in passing EPA per play and eighth in explosive pass%, thanks in large part to an offensive line that allows the third-lowest pressure rate. Though Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t offer the “devil you don’t know” vibes that Trey Lance may have offered the team over the course of a full season; the fact remains that he is allowing his YAC machine pass-catchers to crack open defenses, and that keeps him on the QB1/2 fringe, particularly in a matchup that looks as good as this one does.

Christian McCaffrey looks as if he will cede plenty of early-down work to Elijah Mitchell, but as one of the true 100/100 (rushing/receiving) threats in the league, he has to be a top-five option as long as he’s on the field. The rest of the Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle core should also be jammed into any and all lineups.

Panthers @ Ravens

Maybe this is a scenario in which we simply ignore a good matchup and move on with our day, but the opportunity has presented itself for the Panthers to throw for over 250 yards in a non-overtime game for the first time this season. This is putting a lot on the plate of Baker Mayfield, who is flirting with being the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, but if he has any juice left at all, Week 11 sets up well for him to pepper D.J. Moore with double-digit targets, as it should be each week. Although the Ravens have some great pass-rushing names along their line— Justin Houston, Calais Campbell, Odafe Oweh, to name a few— they only rank 26th in pressure rate (29.1%) and have had issues at the second level, ranking 30th in broken-plus-missed tackles (16%), according to Sports Info Solutions’ numbers.

Outside of a volume-based WR2 play of D.J. Moore and maybe a desperation Flex play of Terrace Marshall, who is in the midst of a mini-breakout, it’s Laviska Shenault who has my attention this week, as well as moving forward. While one swing-pass touchdown does not constitute a breakout season, the Panthers are making a clear and conscious effort to get the former Jaguars’ Swiss army knife more involved in the offense. Shenault’s 16 snaps while lined up wide were the most he’s had since Week 10 of the 2021 season, and it’s fair to imagine the team using him to usurp some of the hybrid role that Christian McCaffrey left behind when he left for the Bay. Let us also not forget that Baker Mayfield’s best throw of the year was a screen pass that Shenault took for a 67-yard touchdown back in Week 3. With Mayfield looking to relive the glory days of September 25th, 2022, sign me up for Shenault as a DFS dart throw.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Packers vs. Titans

As Ryan Tannehill snuggles back into his familiar spot in Tennessee’s run-centric offense, he does so as a three-point underdog in Green Bay on Thursday Night Football. It could be tough sledding from the get-go against a Packers defense that pressures the quarterback at the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Titans rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, allowing 2.3 sacks per game, even though they pass the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league.

Though the Titans have to be heaving a sigh of relief with dangerous pass-rusher Rashan Gary sidelined for this game, they’re still going to have to see more out of rookie right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere who has been big-brothered for the majority of his inaugural season, leading the league in false starts while he locks down the mental aspects of the game. Outside of the rookie, Tennessee also has two of the more mistake-prone offensive lineman in the league, as both left tackle Dennis Daley (184th/189 qualifying linemen) and left guard Aaron Brewer (163rd) rank in the bottom-30 of blown block% in the passing game.

The Titans will keep it on the ground as much as possible, but flimsy pass protection gives the Packers D/ST a high floor in Week 11.

Bengals @ Steelers

The Cincinnati Bengals defense look primed to welcome back interior defensive lineman D.J. Reader ahead of their Week 11 game against the Steelers, and they will do so with open arms. Reader is one of the best run-defending interior linemen in the league, and the team’s splits with him off the field are stark. The team had allowed -0.15 rushing EPA/play with him on the field, a mark that would currently be leading the entire NFL, but that number moved to 0.02 EPA/play with him off the field, a number that would rank 26th on the year. In slightly fewer nerd numbers, teams have averaged 4.6 YPA and 2.9 YAC/attempt with D.J. Reader off the field, but only 3.6 and 1.9, respectively, while he’s on the field.

With a shot in the arm of a run defense that has been trending in the wrong direction, it should help close up what has been a gaping run funnel and could force rookie Kenny Pickett —one of the league’s most turnover-prone quarterbacks—to take the offense into his own hands. Of 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Pickett currently ranks 35th in interception% (4.2%) even though his average depth of target (7.2, 25th) doesn’t suggest that he’s pushing the ball down the field into dangerous situations. The Bengals D/ST make for a solid play in all formats, while Steelers wide receivers who need time for their routes to develop (George Pickens) should be downgraded slightly.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Bills vs. Browns

While Josh Allen didn’t look any worse for the wear (330 yards passing, 84 yards on the ground) in a Week 10 we were worried he would even start with his UCL injury, Week 11 presents a perfect opportunity to transition the offensive attack to the running game if need be. The Browns' once-vaunted defensive line is nothing more than a shell of itself, allowing a league-high rushing EPA/play on the back of the fourth-highest explosive rushing%. It’s not just rate metrics where they’re being eaten alive, either, as the 27.7 schedule-adjusted fantasy points (31st) that they allow to opposing running backs hint that taking a volume approach to the run game will work just fine against them, as well.

By finding the end zone twice last week, Devin Singletary has proven that he will be a mainstay on this team, regardless of all the additions and subtractions we have seen to the backfield over the last seven months. The team is sure to incorporate Nyheim Hines more heavily into the offense over time; he has now only seen ten total offensive snaps in his first two weeks, all of which have yet to be a single pass-blocking snap. Singletary —long since regarded as a two-down back— has been in for 12 pass-blocking snaps and has earned seven targets since the trade for Hines, laughing in the face of his perceived fantasy demise.

Even with Hines and James Cook nipping at his heels, Singletary has at least one more auto-start in your RB2 slot, with upside for an RB1 week.

Chiefs @ Chargers

After weeks with a diminishing workload in both the rushing and passing game, the Chiefs decided to essentially do away with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Week 10, giving him a mundane four total snaps, and since he was unable to reel in either of his two targets, he touched the ball exactly zero times. On the flip side, Isiah Pacheco set a season-high with his 16 carries and can be expected to build on that against a Chargers team that has allowed the third-highest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the running back position.

The Chiefs had a field day pushing around the Chargers in Week 2, as the backfield combined for 148 total yards on 22 touches (15 carries, seven receptions), and the Los Angeles defensive line was much healthier back in that first month of the season. That line has undergone a litany of brutal injuries since then, including Otito Ogbonnia and Christian Covington, who both hit the IR after injuries that occurred just last week. Things set up well for Isiah Pacheco to run amok, with Jerick McKinnon operating as a perfectly fine Flex play for Week 11.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: