Week 7 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

Below is a list of players who are ranked higher than usual due to injuries, depth chart changes, or favorable matchups. As the bye weeks hit, it’s important to be able to find players who can produce.

I’ll put the matchup along with our signature strength-of-schedule metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA), in parenthesis. The higher the number, the better the matchup.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. DET, 31)

If Prescott is able to return this week, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Lions have yielded an average of 270 yards (7.93 YPA) and 1.6 touchdowns to the position. With the return of Michael Gallup, Prescott will have a talented receiving corps to throw to.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (vs. NYG, 17)

Lawrence’s weekly production has been a little spotty, but as a home favorite with an implied total of 22.8, he should be able to produce. The Giants have yielded 16+ fantasy points to quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks (Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers).

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (vs. PIT, 21)

Prior to his injury game against the Bills, Tagovailoa scored 14.8 against the Patriots and 38.9 against the Ravens. He had just 11.4 fantasy points when he left the game against the Bills and shouldn’t have played the following week against the Bengals. Prior to (surprisingly) containing Tom Brady, the Steelers gave up an average of 287/2.0 to Josh Allen, Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Mac Jones (though 424/4 of that went to Allen).

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (vs. KC, 29)

The Chiefs have yielded a league-high 15 touchdowns this season and the sixth-most passing yards per game (266.0). Garoppolo has been pretty solid as a fantasy streamer, as he posted 296/2 and 253/2 in the last two weeks and has cleared 16.7 fantasy points in three of five games this season.

Daniel Jones, Giants (@ JAX, 12)

Through six weeks, Jones is the fantasy QB15 thanks in large part to his ability to run (39 yards rushing per game). Jacksonville has been stingy against the run, but Jalen Hurts did rush for 38 yards back in Week 4, and Matt Ryan threw for 389/3 against the Jaguars last week.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans (vs. IND, 20)

The Colts have given up 14.4+ points to opposing quarterbacks in five of six games this season. Tannehill has accounted for at least two touchdowns in his last four starts against the Colts. He’s not a high-ceiling start, but he should be productive this week.

Davis Mills, Texans (@ LV, 32)

Mills has been a disappointment this season, but maybe the Raiders are just what the doctor ordered as the Texans come off their Week 6 bye. Las Vegas has yielded an average of 270/2.2 to quarterbacks this season, making the Raiders the best matchup in the league right now for opposing quarterbacks.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott & Tony Pollard, Cowboys (vs. DET, 32)

I’m hoping that the eventual return of Dak Prescott leads to a few more targets for both Elliott and Pollard, but this week’s rushing matchup against the Lions is so tasty that both players are worthwhile RB2 plays with four teams on bye. The Lions have allowed an average of 155 total yards and 1.6 touchdowns to opposing backfields this season.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (vs. PIT, 14)

Mostert continues to lead the Dolphins’ backfield. He has touch counts of 17, 19, and 15 in the last three weeks. Through six weeks, Pittsburgh has yielded an average of 135 total yards and 0.84 touchdowns to the running back position.

Travis Etienne, Jaguars (vs. NYG, 17)

Over the past two weeks, Etienne has played more snaps and has the same number of touches as James Robinson (25), though he has been far more efficient in his touches, gaining 222 yards compared to Robinson’s 94. The Giants are giving up an average of 145 total yards per game to running backs, though they have been pretty stingy against backs in the passing game (2.5 running back receptions allowed per game).

Eno Benjamin, Cardinals (vs. NO, 11)

Benjamin picked up a foot injury last week, which might explain his inefficient production on 18 touches. If he’s able to play, and if James Conner and Darrel Williams sit out another week, then Benjamin should continue to see the lion’s share of the touches in the Arizona backfield.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (@ SF, 9)

Pacheco will reportedly start for the Chiefs in Week 7 after seeing significant first-team reps in practice. This obviously improves his outlook. It's a fairly tough matchup, but he's a good bet for 50-60 rushing yards and perhaps a touchdown to boot.

Brian Robinson, Commanders (vs. GB, 15)

The Packers have yielded the second-most rushing yards to running backs (719), which equates to 120 yards per game. Robinson dominated the carries for Washington in Week 6, turning 17 totes into 60 yards and a touchdown. I’d expect a similar stat line against Green Bay.

Latavius Murray, Broncos (vs. NYJ, 22)

Murray handled the bulk of the touches on Monday Night Football against the Chargers. Melvin Gordon was weirdly benched and said after the game that he wasn’t sure why. HC Nathaniel Hackett said on Wednesday that Melvin Gordon would start in Week 7, though it certainly seems like Murray is slated for a sizable role and could see his role grow on third downs since he’s much better than Mike Boone in pass protection.

Kenyan Drake (or Gus Edwards), Ravens (vs. CLE, 30)

Drake took over for J.K. Dobbins after his knee “tightened up” on the turf at MetLife Stadium last week. Drake looked good, turning 11 touches into 127 total yards and a touchdown. It’s not clear if Dobbins reinjured his knee, but he was not present at practice on Wednesday. Gus Edwards is practicing but not a certainty to get cleared by Sunday. Justice Hill is back at practice as well. So Drake could see a big role or share time with Dobbins, Hill, and/or Edwards.

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods, Titans (vs. IND, 6)

Woods figures to lead the Titans in targets as Treylon Burks remains out. Prior to the bye, Woods posted 4-85 (9), 4-30-1 (4), and 4-37 (8). While the Colts are the sixth-best in limiting receiver scoring, none of the individual cornerback matchups are particularly tough.

Romeo Doubs, Packers (@ WAS, 32)

Doubs continues to play a ton of snaps for the injury-riddled Packers, and he’ll eventually capitalize on the heavy usage he’s seeing. He has 30 targets in the last four games and is popping in our Week 7 Breakout Receiver Model. To top it off, the Commanders are No. 32 in WR aFPA and he should see a lot of Kendall Fuller and William Jackson (back), who have both struggled this season.

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders (vs. HOU, 17)

Darren Waller is dealing with a hamstring injury, and if he’s out, Renfrow figures to see an increased role in the offense. Remember, he posted 103-1,038-9 on 128 targets last season.

Michael Gallup & Noah Brown, Cowboys (vs. DET, 20)

If Dak Prescott is back, Gallup and Brown are worth a look given the favorable matchup against the Lions, who have allowed an average of 13.2 catches for 180 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game to opposing receivers.

Rondale Moore, Cardinals (vs. NO, 30)

Moore has seen 18 targets in the last two weeks, catching 13 passes for 117 yards. That’s not a ton of production, but the usage is just what we look for when trying to identify Sneaky Starts. His slot matchup with Chris Harris isn’t particularly good, though the Saints as a whole have been generous to the receiver position (30th in WR aFPA).

Darnell Mooney, Bears (@ NE, 14)

I have a feeling that Bill Belichick will scheme toward stopping Mooney, who is clearly the Bears’ best receiving option, but Mooney is definitely trending up. He has 214 yards receiving in the last three games and the Bears are letting Justin Fields throw the ball a bit more after a very run-heavy start to the season. Mooney should square off with a lot of Myles Bryant in the slot, and that’s not a daunting matchup. He’s also popping in the Breakout Receiver Model this week.

Alec Pierce, Colts (@ TEN, 31)

Pierce should see a lot of Terrance Mitchell, the Titans’ most generous cornerback in terms of fantasy points per route covered. Pierce caught four passes for 80 yards on six targets against Tennesee back in Week 4 and has posted 61+ yards and/or a touchdown in four straight games.

Nico Collins, Texans (@ LV, 28)

Collins has been solid over the last four games, averaging 62 yards per game in that span. He hasn’t yet found the end zone, and that’s why he appears in the Breakout Receiver Model this week. He’s helped by a tasty matchup–the Raiders are No. 28 in WR aFPA–though his individual matchup against Anthony Averett isn’t great.

Josh Reynolds, Lions (@ DAL, 9)

Reynolds is on a hot streak. In his last three games, he has posted 6-96 (10), 7-81-1 (8), and 6-92 (10), but much of that was out of necessity, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift sidelined or limited with injury. Reynolds didn’t practice on Wednesday, so that’s something to monitor.

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (vs. CHI, 2)

In his second game, the Patriots ramped up Thornton’s snaps from 42% to 57% and fed him the ball seven times, which he turned into 53 total yards and two touchdowns (one rush, one receiving). Jakobi Meyers’ matchup in the slot is a lot better, but I’m encouraged by the rookie’s role in the offense as the team seems to be souring on Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (@ JAX, 19)

Speaking of rookies, Robinson returned from a knee injury and caught 3-of-4 targets for 37 yards and a score in just 23% of the snaps. Given the Giants’ well-documented receiver woes, there is a lot of opportunity for Robinson to increase his playing time and production.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan, Packers (@ WAS, 6)

Tonyan played a season-high 63% of the snaps in Week 6, so maybe he’s getting close to 100% health after tearing his ACL last season. He had 10 catches for 90 yards against the Jets.

Evan Engram, Jaguars (vs. NYG, 25)

Engram has seen 16 targets in the last two weeks, catching 11 passes for 109 yards. It’s a revenge game for Engram as he faces his old team, so you can bet he’s in his coach’s ear this week looking for a red zone target or two. The Giants just gave up 7-106-1 to Mark Andrews.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (vs. PIT, 16)

Durham Smythe was out in 0Week 6, and that led to Gesicki running the third-most routes on the team after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He turned in his best game of the year, with 6-69-2 on seven targets against the Vikings. If Smythe is out again, then Gesicki is a solid start.

Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs. CHI, 7)

Even though Jonnu Smith returned in Week 6, Henry was still a full-time player. In that role, he has 8-115-1 on 12 targets over the last two weeks. If Henry continues to play 90%+ of the snaps, he should deliver low-end TE1 numbers.

Noah Fant, Seahawks (@ LAC, 8)

Something seems to be brewing with Fant. Over the last two weeks, he has run a route on roughly 60% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. For most of the season, he’s been hovering around 50%. That has led to 12 targets in the last two weeks. We know Fant is a TE1-caliber player, and it seems like Seattle is realizing that as well.

Juwan Johnson, Saints (@ ARI, 31)

Johnson saw six targets last week and should benefit from the absence of Adam Trautman (ankle) in a tasty matchup with the Cardinals, who yielded an average of 7.5-84-0.50 to tight ends this season.

Cade Otton, Buccaneers (@ CAR, 5)

Cameron Brate has a sprained neck, which is actually good news for him given the scary nature of his injury, but it still means that he’s likely to miss some time. Otton posted 6-43 on seven targets in the last game that Brate missed (Week 5).

Greg Dulcich, Broncos (vs. NYJ, 12)

Dulcich’s professional career started with a splash; he caught a long touchdown on Monday Night Football and played 71% of the snaps. I normally don’t trust rookie tight ends, but it appears that they are giving Dulcich as many snaps as he can handle.

Foster Moreau, Raiders (vs. HOU, 21)

Darren Waller tweaked his hamstring before the bye, and if he’s not available, Moreau will see a big jump in snaps. In the six games that he’s played without Waller in the lineup, Moreau has averaged 3.7-41-0.17 on 4.8 targets per game.