Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 10 Team- PPR (July 2023)
Sometimes, I feel so lucky to be a part of such a great team at 4for4. I wanted to mock up a PPR league, so I blasted a message to the team, and within minutes, I had a full league. I even got an immediate response from friend and former 4for4 writer Jordan Vanek, who is putting out incredible content at 33rdteam.com as their Head of DFS. This industry has its ups and downs, but the people we connect with along the way are just incredible.
We had such a good time drafting, we decided to turn it into a league! Around the 10th round, everyone wanted to make it a best ball league, so while this will be a mock to help you prep for your redraft leagues, know that even experts get excited about their rosters mid-draft and change plans. Let’s dig in and see how the crew drafted!
Roster Settings: 1QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FLEX + 7 Bench Spots (15 rounds - Snake Draft)
Scoring: Point Per Reception (PPR)
Draft participants in order:
- Jordan Vanek, Head of DFS at 33rdteam.com, @JordanVanekDFS
- Brendan Darr, 4for4.com, @BrendanDarr
- Rob Lorge, 4for4.com, @RobFFSlayer
- Nic Bodiford, 4for4.com, @NicBodifordNFL
- Pranav Rajaram, 4for4.com, @_pranavrajaram
- Justin Edwards, 4for4.com, @Justin_Redwards
- Brandon Niles, 4for4.com, @2guysbrandon
- Andrew Fleischer, 4for4.com, @afleischer
- Jen Eakins, 4for4.com, @JenEakinsNFL
- Neil Dutton, 4for4.com, @ndutton13
When referencing ADP in this article, data was obtained from our powerful Multi-Site ADP Tool. The full draft board will be posted at the bottom of the article.
Rounds 1-3
Best Value: Derrick Henry, 3.06, ADP 2.06
Biggest Reach: Chris Olave, 2.10, ADP 4.09
Wide receivers dominated the early rounds this year, with six going off the board in the first round, and another six in the second. DK Metcalf was already the 15th wide receiver off the board by the time Rob Lorge drafted him at 3.03. Justin Edwards drafted away from the crowd, and wound up taking three straight running backs to start the draft. Justin had this to say about the strategy:
“It is certainly not my favorite strategy to implement, particularly with a full PPR scoring setting, but I felt the board was falling to me that way, so I just went for it. I think if you're going to go with this strategy, you have to sit tight with those three running backs for most —if not the rest— of the draft and try to pick up the pieces at the WR position. You're hoping for an injury-free year at the most injury-prone position, but if it hits, I feel comfortable with having the strongest RB room in the league.”
Justin went on to go WR-TE-QB in the next three rounds and then went hard after wide receivers throughout the rest of the draft.
I went after CeeDee Lamb in the first round, but thought seriously about Travis Kelce. Kelce is such an advantage over every other fantasy tight end, he’s worth his lofty draft slot. We also saw just one quarterback go off the board in the first three rounds when Neil Dutton took Josh Allen with the final pick of the third round.
Running backs are dropping in industry leagues as the wide receiver position feels thin. I was excited to get Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris in the second and third rounds, respectively, while still getting one of my favorite receivers in Lamb.
Rounds 4-6
Best Value: Patrick Mahomes, 4.03, ADP 2.09
Biggest Reach: Calvin Ridley, 4.06, ADP 5.04
This was the quarterback section of the draft, with six of the 10 managers taking a signal-caller. Industry leagues never disappoint, as quarterbacks are often valued lower by experts. Patrick Mahomes went nearly two rounds later than his ADP as Andrew Fleischer snatched up the perennial All-Pro following Jalen Hurts going to Jen Eakins at 4.02.
DeAndre Hopkins was selected at 5.02 by Brendan Darr. Since this was a slow draft, the selection was made before Hopkins signed in Tennessee, but the draft didn’t conclude until after the news. I asked Darr how much the landing spot affects his opinion of the pick:
“I'm lower (on the pick). Not much lower, but lower. Knowing what I know now I probably would have taken T.J. Hockenson in that spot. With Hopkins, my hope was he'd land in New England and get reunited with Bill O'Brien. Even if it wasn't Kansas City or Buffalo, he'd at least be in a place with a great offensive mind who knows how to utilize him and likely feed him targets. In Tennessee, he'll still be the alpha (RIP my Treylon Burks profile), but there's more competition for targets in a similarly low-volume passing offense.”
I also wrote a full Player Profile on Hopkins the day after he signed with the Titans.
Another wide receiver in a new uniform went off the board a round above his ADP when Calvin Ridley was selected by Pranav Rajaram. Pranav had this to say about making Ridley his top receiver after going RB-RB-TE in the first three rounds:
“Honestly, I wasn’t really planning on waiting so long to take a receiver but there was a huge run on them early. I still feel pretty good about Ridley because he’s still the WR1 in what should be a great offense. His ceiling might not be as high as others, but I’m hoping my Lamar Jackson / Mark Andrews stack will help provide some of that upside.”
Pranav ended up with Ridley-Mike Williams-Brandon Aiyuk as his top three receivers, which should work just fine to pair with his stellar running backs and tight end.
Rounds 7-9
Best Value: David Montgomery, 9.10, ADP 8.07
Biggest Reach: Jameson Williams, 9.01, ADP 12.06
There was a run on the second-tier tight ends in this segment of the draft, with five of the 10 managers grabbing someone at the position. Jordan Vanek grabbed a pair of sophomore receivers at the 8/9 turn and had this to say about the pair:
“Jameson Williams may be suspended for a while but the majority of his games will be in a dome and when he comes back I expect boom weeks from him in the Lions offense. I love Treylon Burks’ ability to win down the field and with Derrick Henry/DeAndre Hopkins he should have plenty of chances to make big plays.”
We also saw our first rookie wide receivers drafted in this area, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba the first off the board at 8.05, a round ahead of his ADP.
I ended up taking two receivers and a running back in this trio of rounds, but in most drafts, this is where I’m going after high-upside running backs. I love the risk/reward ratio you get with every running back drafted in this section. Neil Dutton managed to snag both Cam Akers and Rachaad White at the 7/8 turn and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if both end up being top-10 fantasy producers.
I tend to wait on tight ends, but in this draft, I went with George Kittle in the fourth, so I didn’t go after one here. I definitely have no problem taking some of the tight ends in this range though, especially Pat Freiermuth in the ninth round. Tight end is always a wasteland in fantasy football, but Freiermuth has been very productive in his first two years, despite tremendous turmoil and instability on the team as it transitions to the Kenny Pickett era. Some continuity going into the season should help. I’m betting on the huge upside of George Pickens in that offense as well, which is why I took him two rounds above ADP. He’s one of my most-rostered players this drafting season.
Rounds 10-15
Best Value: Trevor Lawrence, 10.08, ADP 6.06
Biggest Reach: Jerome Ford, 14.02, ADP 25.04
The quarterback value continued to be incredible this late in the draft, and shows just how easy it is to wait on the position. I was the last to take my QB1 and still ended up with Dak Prescott. Rob Lorge was able to snag Trevor Lawrence in the 10th round, four rounds later than his ADP. Rob had this to say about his strategy:
“I’m really high on Lawrence this year. He started to truly break out last season around Week 9. In the first eight weeks of the season, Lawrence was completing 62.2% of his passes. From Week 9 through their playoff loss vs. KC, he completed 67.4%. We saw other significant improvements in TD rate (3.6% vs 5.1% and YPA (6.37 vs 7.05). It was a tale of two halves and it resulted in a 19.3 PPG average during the second half.
As far as waiting on QBs, if I don’t get one of the top three (Allen, Mahomes, or Hurts), I find myself much more willing to wait on the position.”
Rob and I also agree that there’s a ton of value with guys like Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones available in double-digit rounds. It’s a deep position in 2023.
We saw a familiar fantasy name go off the board in the 10th round when Andrew Fleischer took Michael Thomas. I asked Andrew if he thought Thomas would be able to contribute in 2023 after essentially three lost seasons:
“After taking just one WR through six rounds, I wanted as much target volume upside as I could get for my remaining starters. Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Michael Thomas are all strong bets to surpass 100 targets - if healthy. For Michael Thomas, that's a gargantuan IF. We've only got three games from 2022 to reference, all with Jameis Winston at QB, but he had 22 targets, 171 yards, and three touchdowns across those games. Even if MT cedes the target lead to Chris Olave… he should still safely average over six targets per game. Those targets will be coming from Derek Carr, whose aDOT should line up well with where Thomas has had his most success in prior seasons. His recent injury history would carry too much risk if I were drafting him as my WR3, but as my WR5, I figure his upside outweighs his risk.”
Neil Dutton was the last to take a tight end in this draft, waiting all the way until the 11th round to snatch David Njoku. He had this to say:
“If I can’t get Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, or Mark Andrews, I’m more than happy to fill up on running backs and wide receivers before taking the plunge at tight end. Waiting as late as I did and still ending up with Njoku was pretty much ideal. He had a career season last year in an offense that seemed gripped with an identity crisis after changing quarterbacks toward the end. Now with a full off-season to integrate the quarterback into the system, and no veteran additions to the receiving corps, Njoku could be second on the team in targets.”
One of my favorite things to do in late rounds of drafts is to plant my flag on a sleeper who inevitably ends up on all my rosters. This year, Jen Eakins beat me to it by taking Jerome Ford in the 14th round (love him in that Kareem Hunt role), so instead, I asked Nic Bodiford about his 14th-round selection:
“I drafted Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims for two reasons: AFC West/Week 17 correlation and Mims' overall draft profile. Since I stacked Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and tight end Gerald Everett, I wanted to add more AFC West players, ideally a member of the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles' Week 17 opponent. Despite entering the 2023 NFL Draft with limited draft capital, new head coach Sean Payton traded up into the second round to select Mims with the 63rd overall pick. Mims boasts an extremely impressive college profile, averaging more than 3.0 yards per route run (YPRR) in all three seasons at Oklahoma. Among 33 Power-5 wide receivers with at least 90 targets in 2022, Mims' 3.2 YPRR tied for No. 5, per SportsInfoSolutions.”
As I mentioned at the beginning of the article, we were having so much fun with this draft, we changed it to an actual best ball league midway through. That explains the run on second quarterbacks and second tight ends in the last few rounds. I asked our own Jen Eakins how different that would be had it remained a strict redraft mock, and she had this to say:
“It's highly likely I would not have drafted a second QB or TE if the format didn't change midway through the supposed mock. Investing in Hurts in the fourth round and the fact that he has a Week 10 bye would deter me from a QB2. Since TE is such a crap shoot after the top few anyway, I prefer to just stream if the guy I took, in this case, Freiermuth, doesn't pan out or sustains an injury.”
I agree wholeheartedly with Jen on this. In a redraft league with 15 spots and only one starting quarterback in your lineup, I wouldn’t double up on quarterback or tight end. So keep that in mind when planning for your redraft league.
Final Draft Board
Bottom Line
- Waiting on a quarterback seems very viable in 1QB formats this year, with excellent targets
- Wide receivers are a hot commodity this year. Find a few late-rounders you like and target them when you need to if you can’t load up on the position early.
- The popularity of wide receivers this year pushes some quality high-upside running backs further down the board than usual. Some of these guys are going to get full workloads and be league winners.
- When possible, draft with your friends. What a blast this was!
