SharpClarke Divisional Preview: AFC South

Aug 13, 2023

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How quickly the tables have turned in this division. The Jaguars had finished 4th in the division for four straight years heading into the Doug Pederson era, and now they are clear favorites to win the division. It feels like the rest of the teams are either in a rebuild or will be soon, but will it be an easy walk for the Jaguars? Let's dive in.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Narrative

I don't often start a team's narrative by talking about a wide receiver. But the impact of Calvin Ridley on this team might be understated. I like Ridley a lot. Not only do I respect his openness in dealing with some mental health issues, but he is an elite route-runner and reliable at the catch point. Trevor Lawrence is excellent when it comes to anticipating releases and placing the ball where the receiver can get it. He has been making players like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram look good. But Ridley is the type of player who can make the quarterback look good. Their skill sets match up perfectly. If Ridley is able to stay on the field and remain focused, he could benefit Lawrence the same way Stefon Diggs helped Josh Allen, and A.J. Brown helped Jalen Hurts. In other words, I expect Lawrence to play near-MVP caliber football this season if Ridley is on the field. The offensive line might be shakier early on with Cam Robinson serving a suspension, but Lawrence is the type of quarterback who avoids sacks and uses his brain and sneaky athleticism to combat pressure. I am not overly concerned.

However, the defense remains a question mark. Last year's metrics look okay without context. But they faced a Colts team with no receivers and a banged-up Chargers team with Herbert playing through a rib injury early on. They also capitalized against some bad quarterbacks, including allowing a combined 22 points to Josh Dobbs, Zach Wilson, and Davis Mills down the stretch. Most of the time, when they faced an offense with a pulse, they struggled. Lawrence is capable of keeping the Jaguars in any game, but with some formidable opponents on the schedule, the defense will likely need to play better for them to make some real noise in the AFC. That means former number one overall pick Travon Walker will need to approach his potential in Year 2 to give Josh Allen some pass-rush help. With young players at key positions on both sides of the ball, I expect further improvement from the Jaguars this year. If the defense can even approach an average level, this team has what it takes to dominate a weak division.

Betting Approach

The price on Jacksonville (and a potential challenger) keeps me off them in season-long markets. When playing heavy favorites you also have to deal with variance. Things do not always go according to plan. But even with a tougher schedule than their division opponents, they are correctly heavily favored to win the division. They lost several games they should have won last year, and I anticipate further improvement with Ridley. I think fading an elite quarterback on the rise is a fool's errand.

Tennessee Titans

Narrative

The Titans are the most likely team to upset the Jaguars' bid for a repeat divisional title, and I can see it happening. Their defense last year featured a fearsome front seven that shut down the run emphatically and got decent pressure on the quarterback without blitzing much. They lost David Long at linebacker but should get Harold Landry back from injury and added Azeez Al-Shair and Arden Key. The net effect should be positive. The secondary let them down, but they dealt with an underrated amount of injuries, missing starters down the stretch in particular. They added Sean Murphy-Bunting to the mix, and I expect Mike Vrabel and Shane Bowen to once again maximize the talent on this defense. If they can stay healthy, they have a legitimate upside range of the best defense in the NFL.

Things look a little shakier on the offensive side of the ball, primarily due to a projected weak offensive line. I don't expect an immediate decline in Derrick Henry's ability (although it will come at some point), but his style of running requires decent offensive line play in most cases. He picks up steam as he heads toward the line of scrimmage and becomes harder to tackle the more he runs, but doesn't have elite elusiveness at the tackle point. So if defenders can wrap his legs up before he gets going, he will be much less effective. If the run game is less effective, that puts more pressure on Ryan Tannehill, who will need DeAndre Hopkins to maintain his performance at age 31 and Treylon Burks to take a step forward in Year 2. Tannehill can get the job done but has been at his best when the passing game complements a strong ground game. There is room for improvement on this side of the ball, but they can only go as far as the offensive line allows them. That keeps the upside low, absent some major surprises.

Betting Approach

I have not bought the market sell-off on Tennessee this off-season. Vrabel seems to be the kind of competitive coach who will never back down, and there are too many good players on this team to think they are going to tank. The signing of Hopkins just confirms their intention: they plan to win this year. If the Jaguars stumble or suffer serious injuries, I believe the Titans will be right there, ready to steal the division and re-enter the playoffs. But I like the Jaguars too much to bet on it and get queasy thinking about a season-long bet riding on this offensive line. I'm cautiously optimistic and remain patient with this team.

Houston Texans

Narrative

I don't have a lot to say about this team. There are some strengths on this team for sure. They have some good pieces on defenses and justified optimism that Demeco Ryans can be a good head coach. He got the most out of his defense in San Francisco, and it was clear he knows how to connect with his players. When healthy, the offensive line is decent, and Dameon Pierce looked excellent as a rookie. A solid ground game can take the pressure off a young rookie quarterback. But ultimately, C.J. Stroud is a huge question mark. His receivers are not likely to make his job easy, and we don't know what the offensive scheme will look like. I don't put too much stock in college film, but Stroud did not look all that ready for NFL speed in the limited clips I watched.

Last year, Davis Mills struggled in a situation that didn't offer him much help. Mills is an underrated quarterback who I think could succeed in more favorable circumstances. So Stroud, despite being a much higher draft pick, could be a downgrade for this team, especially at first. I expect Ryans has a solid leash as head coach and that the ownership views this year as the first in a solid rebuild. Expectations aren't too high out of the gate, and they don't need to be. But they will want to show more strongly down the stretch as they look towards 2024. They gave up their first-round draft pick for next year, so they will have no incentive to lose. I expect this team to surprise a few times this season, playing hard under Ryans. But unless Stroud is a complete surprise, the ceiling remains low overall.

Betting Approach

If you've been reading my previews, you'll know I do not love betting into uncertainty. I have my doubts about Stroud, but the surroundings are strong enough to help him deliver if he surprises to the upside. The schedule does not project to be overly difficult, so they could win some games. They also could be the worst team in the NFL. For the most part, I am carrying loosely-held priors from last season's performance until I see evidence of who they are. But they might be a team that gains steam late if Stroud develops, creating some late-season value on them after a rough start. Downweighting early-week games late in the season might be particularly important with this team.

Indianapolis Colts

Narrative

The Colts have been stuck in a loop at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck retired, cycling veterans often at the end of their relevant careers in hopes of doing just enough to put a good roster over the top. But they never got what they wanted. This year they took things in a new direction by drafting Anthony Richardson, a raw prospect with only one full college season under his belt, in which he completed 53.8% of his passes. But his physical tools are unmistakable. He throws with confidence and zip and has the athleticism to strike fear in opposing defenses the way Lamar Jackson does, keeping them on their toes. For a player with his profile, there is a lot of room created by gravity every time he runs an RPO, which can improve the run game and give him time to process in the passing game. What he does with that time is the big question. I expect he'll shine in some moments but make crucial mistakes as well. The good thing for Colts fans is that he seems to take everything in stride. A few ugly mistakes will be good for his growth; I don't see it crushing him as a player. That's why the coaching staff felt confident appointing him the Week 1 starter.

But what can we realistically expect from him as a rookie? Quarterback mobility makes everyone's job easier. With an offensive line that declined last year and an underwhelming set of weapons, including an alpha receiver in Michael Pittman who simply hasn't established himself as a top receiver yet (and not much else), Richardson can help turn things around. What I worry about is play-to-play consistency. The most important aspect of playing quarterback in the NFL consistently finding the right reads and abandoning plays that don't work out. I wouldn't count on that from Richardson right out of the gate. The defense has lost a few steps and features a pretty weak secondary in particular, so the offense will likely need to be much better than it was last year for the Colts to actually win games. I'd be surprised - although not shocked - if Richardson takes them there this season.

Betting Approach

I can't join in on the market's relative optimism that Richardson can turn this team around right away. They are being priced at 6.5 wins with juice to the over. That's a lot to ask of the rookie in a tough situation with a first-time head coach. I believe what Shane Steichen did with the Eagles is not easily replicable with a relative deficiency at every offensive position (except running back if Jonathan Taylor returns). I can only fade the Colts at current prices while remaining open-minded should Richardson progress faster than expected.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Jaguars - 9.7 wins, ~60% chance to win the AFC South

Titans - 7.6 wins, ~22% chance to win the AFC South

Texans - 6.2 wins, ~7% chance to win the AFC South

Colts - 6.6 wins, ~11% chance to win the AFC South

Best Bet

My favorite bet in this division has unfortunately moved a little, but I still see a little juice for the squeeze on Colts Under 6.5 Wins (+105) at Circa. The best price available on widely-used books is +100 on DraftKings. I project them to win 6 or fewer games in over 50% of outcomes because finishing games will be difficult without a strong passing game or defense. Even when Justin Fields started to deliver in many ways last year, the Bears only won 3 games. I can see a similar path for Richardson without better support.