O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 12

Nov 22, 2023

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	DAL	WAS	32	29
4	BAL	LAC	31	27
5	IND	TB	26	21
8	BUF	PHI	28	20
6	ATL	NO	21	15
13	GB	DET	27	14
7	MIN	CHI	19	12
2	PHI	BUF	12	10
1	DET	GB	9	8
22	NO	ATL	29	7
15	SF	SEA	22	7
24	JAX	HOU	30	6
10	CLE	DEN	15	5
12	TB	IND	16	4
16	HOU	JAX	17	1
9	KC	LVR	8	-1
27	LAR	ARI	25	-2
28	CAR	TEN	23	-5
20	CIN	PIT	14	-6
11	MIA	NYJ	5	-6
26	NE	NYG	20	-6
32	NYJ	MIA	24	-8
21	PIT	CIN	13	-8
29	ARI	LAR	18	-11
14	DEN	CLE	3	-11
23	CHI	MIN	11	-12
18	LAC	BAL	6	-12
25	WAS	DAL	10	-15
17	LVR	KC	1	-16
19	SEA	SF	2	-17
31	NYG	NE	7	-24
30	TEN	CAR	4	-26

Bills @ Eagles

The Eagles are in a brutal stretch of their schedule, having faced the Cowboys and Chiefs over their last two games, with the Bills here this week and the 49ers next week. They’ve fared well to this point, beating both the Cowboys and Chiefs, and will have to keep that intensity up against a Buffalo team looking to continue their offensive momentum after firing OC Ken Dorsey and scoring 32 points in their first game without him.

They will do so behind an incredibly consistent offensive line. The unit ranks in the top five in each of adjusted sack rate, adjusted line yards, QB pressure rate allowed, and Sports Info Solutions’ blown block percentage. With Josh Allen getting sacked only once last week, it was the sixth time he has taken one or fewer sacks over the last seven games. While the Philadelphia defensive line is certainly not pushovers, they are a couple of notches down from their utterly dominant form of recent years. They currently rank 10th in adjusted sack rate (8.1%) and 20th in pressure rate (33.7%).

Beyond Allen and Stefon Diggs, both Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir can be considered FLEX options, while Dalton Kincaid will continue to be an easy click for your TE slot.

Falcons vs. Saints

Aside from some questionable personnel usage (Jonnu Smith > Kyle Pitts, everybody > Bijan Robinson, etc.), the team has had plenty of consistency outside of their quarterback situation, particularly at the offensive line. Right tackle Kaleb McGary (knee) was forced to cede 22 snaps to Storm Norton back in Week 5, and those are basically the only plays of the 2023 season in which the starting five didn’t play next to each other.

This has led to the eighth-best QB pressure rate allowed (32.0%) on the year, and they will be coming out of their bye week to take on a Saints team that ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate (5.7%). That inability to get the quarterback to the ground has contributed to their 20th-ranked QB aFPA, and they’re coming off of a matchup in which they allowed 300+ total yards and two touchdowns to Joshua Dobbs.

Desmond Ridder is in a good spot to prove why he should keep his job through the rest of the season, though it’s fair to wonder what extent that will stretch into fantasy. While Ridder himself will be an acceptable option in Superflex leagues, we can also bring along Drake London as a FLEX play, and—dare I say—Kyle Pitts as a fringe TE1 coming out of the bye. Will the league’s most stubborn coach get the ball to his playmakers as the season slowly slips away? It’s worth the gamble.

Ravens @ Chargers

This lopsided affair tilted slightly in favor of the Los Angeles Chargers, as left tackle Ronnie Stanley seems like he is trending towards missing Week 12, but the offensive line still has plenty of talent left to take on a pass rush that will be missing Joey Bosa for the rest of the season. The Chargers will be forced to lean on a resurgent Khalil Mack to help mask a leaky secondary that has allowed a league-worst 8.2 yards per attempt and 317.8 yards through the air per game.

Isaiah Likely didn’t perform as we would have expected following Mark Andrews’ exit from the Ravens’ Week 11 game against the Cincinnati Bengals—turning two targets into a goose egg stat line—but, he was a mid-game replacement in what would turn out to be a disappointing game environment. Just a couple of drives after Andrews went down with his ankle injury, Joe Burrow would also be ruled out for the rest of the game, leaving the Bengals to sputter to 20 points, and, in turn, allowing the Ravens to turn to the ground game to milk a comfortable 34-20 victory.

Expect Likely and Zay Flowers to team up for successful fantasy weeks against a defense that ranks bottom-seven in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Panthers @ Titans

Things continue to get worse on the Tennessee offensive line, as right tackle Chris Hubbard has been reported to be out for the rest of the season due to a biceps injury. This will clear the way for sixth-round rookie Jaelyn Duncan, who has logged only 15 offensive snaps on the season, including his fill-in role in Week 11.

The Panthers defense hasn’t been particularly strong this year—especially their run defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA, but the combination of rookie Will Levis and this offensive line builds us a fantasy floor in basically any scenario. Levis has taken multiple sacks in all four of his games, totaling 12 on the season. Pair this with the league’s fourth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (5.3%), and the Panthers D/ST makes a sneaky play for managers without an obvious option on the waiver wire.

Patriots @ Giants

Deciding between the two New Jersey franchises as to who has the worst offensive line in the league is honestly just a toss-up at this point. The Giants likely get the upper hand with left tackle Andrew Thomas returning and looking good in the process, but they still handily trail the league in both adjusted sack rate (15.01%) and QB pressure rate (45.6%).

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots currently rank sixth in rushing defense DVOA, the aspect of the game the Giants would most like to get started. Tommy DeVito and 80% of the offensive line will prop up the Patriots D/ST into a top-ten finish.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
4	BAL	LAC	27	23
10	CLE	DEN	32	22
3	DAL	WAS	24	21
1	DET	GB	21	20
11	MIA	NYJ	30	19
2	PHI	BUF	20	18
9	KC	LVR	26	17
12	TB	IND	29	17
7	MIN	CHI	23	16
15	SF	SEA	25	10
6	ATL	NO	12	6
27	LAR	ARI	31	4
20	CIN	PIT	22	2
13	GB	DET	14	1
30	TEN	CAR	28	-2
5	IND	TB	2	-3
21	PIT	CIN	17	-4
19	SEA	SF	15	-4
24	JAX	HOU	18	-6
8	BUF	PHI	1	-7
26	NE	NYG	19	-7
16	HOU	JAX	7	-9
18	LAC	BAL	9	-9
14	DEN	CLE	3	-11
17	LVR	KC	6	-11
28	CAR	TEN	16	-12
25	WAS	DAL	13	-12
23	CHI	MIN	10	-13
29	ARI	LAR	11	-18
22	NO	ATL	4	-18
31	NYG	NE	8	-23
32	NYJ	MIA	5	-27

Browns @ Broncos

Jerome Ford fantasy managers sure would prefer it if Kareem Hunt spent a little more time on the sidelines, but it just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Not only has the veteran carried the ball double-digit times in each of the last six games, he’s also had a rushing touchdown in five of them. While Ford is still getting his—he’s the RB20 in that six-game timeframe—our hopes of a true RB1 behind this offensive line have been dashed.

Both options should have a chance to eat as respective RB2 and RB3s this week against DVOA’s 31st-ranked rush defense. Though the Broncos have looked improved recently, they’ve also allowed 367 yards on the ground in these two weeks since the bye, progressing the narrative that they are a team that is easy to run on.

Buccaneers @ Colts

Rachaad White’s plodding 3.3 yards per attempt have left a lot to be desired, but his control over the backfield gives him an opportunity to deliver a top-15 performance against the Colts' run defense. White’s 78.0% share of the backfield snaps ranks fifth across the entire position, while Indianapolis ranks 20th in adjusted line yards and 29th in RB aFPA.

Much of that production also comes through the air, as the Colts allow 39.4 receiving yards to the position per game, the eighth-most in the league. This bodes well for White, who has already racked up a 41-354-1 stat line on 44 targets for the year. We may not be getting a ton of explosive plays from him, but White needs to be in lineups during soft matchups like this.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: