O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 5

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Colts vs. Titans

The Tennessee Titans' defense showed up in Week 4 against a woefully hobbled Joe Burrow and an underperforming pass-protection unit, but that doesn’t mean they’re not still a defense we should be targeting in fantasy football. This week, they’ll take on rookie Anthony Richardson, who looks anything but hobbled after he returned to the field (concussion) to finish last week as the overall QB2, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

Richardson himself is a must-start in practically any situation, but the sad box scores from his pass-catchers are likely to be a recurring theme throughout this season. In Week 4, the Colts’ leading fantasy pass-catcher was Andrew Ogletree, who caught three of his four targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. It’ll be a rough click for managers this week, but we should expect a bounce-back performance for Michael Pittman, who has accrued 154 air yards over Richardson’s two full starts while accounting for a 25.8% target share.

Even after stifling the Bengals passing attack last week, the Titans rank 25th in QB aFPA and 29th in WR aFPA. Against a mobile quarterback, they will have a more difficult time muddying the pocket in Week 5.

Packers @ Raiders

Life without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins came to a head in Week 4, as the Lions' pass rush made life difficult for Jordan Love on Thursday Night Football. Detroit would land five sacks while forcing pressure on 41.5% of the quarterback’s dropbacks, leading to a dud of a fantasy performance for everyone not named Romeo Doubs (9-95 on 13 targets).

The Raiders will certainly look to move Maxx Crosby and his league-leading 27 pressures around the formation to terrorize Love, but behind him, the team doesn’t have a single other option with double-digit pressures through the first four weeks of the season. Maybe more significantly, left guard Elgton Jenkins returned to practice early this week, leaving the door open for his availability after he’s missed the last 2.5 games with a knee injury.

With Bakhtiari unlikely to return any time soon, this helps to shore up the left side of the line, where fill-in guard Royce Newman has had a passing-play blown block rate of 6.6% over the last two weeks, ranking 77th out of 82 qualifying guards.

Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are great WR3 options this week, while Luke Musgrave is in a great spot as a streamer, assuming he clears the concussion protocol in time; Las Vegas ranks 28th in TE aFPA.

Chiefs @ Vikings

The Chiefs' offensive line has had its ups and downs this season—including some hiccups from new right tackle Jawaan Taylor—but they remain a strength of the team and have kept Patrick Mahomes upright for most of the 2023 season. They currently rank first in adjusted sack rate (2.48%) and will now head to Minnesota to take on a Vikings pass rush that ranks 31st in pressure rate (27.8%). That lack of pressure has caused further problems to a secondary that was already questionable heading into the season. On wide receiver targets from a clean pocket, the Vikings have allowed an 81.1% completion rate, second only to the Denver Broncos, who have been a punching back through four weeks.

This information isn’t set up to convince you to start Mahomes and Travis Kelce, you were already doing that, but it could tip you over the edge to use a Chiefs receiver as a dart throw in Week 5. That dart throw suggestion is rookie Rashee Rice, who has become more involved over these last two weeks (11 targets, 17.2% target share) and will face off against this Vikings defense that has allowed an astounding 89.1% completion rate to pass catchers lining up in the slot.

Rice has a matchup-based fantasy floor and should be considered a FLEX option in Week 5.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Patriots vs. Saints

The Patriots are in bad shape across the board, but we’ve seen this team put together some great defensive schemes against susceptible offenses for a long time. The Saints are one of those offenses, and their O-Line currently ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate (9.11%) and 23rd in running back yards before contact (1.10). Some of these issues have to do with injury concerns along the interior, including Cesar Ruiz and Andrus Peat missing Week 4 entirely or being forced out early due to concussion symptoms.

Ruiz is slated to return in Week 5, but it remains to be seen how much of a positive impact this will have on a struggling offense. The Saints currently rank 23rd in passing DVOA and 21st in rushing DVOA, while the team’s 1.31 points per drive is 27th, as they have failed to eclipse 20 points in any of their four games.

Dolphins vs. Giants

At this point, we should target fantasy defenses that line up against the Giants on a weekly basis until they can prove otherwise. The unit has fallen to 32nd in my rankings since coming out of the offseason with at least some promise. Much of that promise rested on the shoulders of left tackle Andrew Thomas, who had progressed into one of the best tackles in the league over the last two seasons but has been sidelined since the team’s embarrassing Week 1 mauling at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. In his absence, Joshua Ezedudu has had difficulty holding down the fort, allowing four sacks, including a three-sack day in Week 4 against the Seahawks.

Thomas could possibly return this week (did not practice on Wednesday), but it’s hard to say how much he will help a team that remarkably ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate (14.33%), QB pressure rate (43.2%), and running back yards before contact average (0.71). The Giants have been forced into pass-heavy game scripts for much of the season, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue against arguably the most explosive offense in the league.

For good measure, the Dolphins also happen to rank fourth in pressure rate (40.6%), making them a slam dunk Week 5 option.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Lions vs. Panthers

The Panthers have been rocked on the ground up to this point in the season, allowing a league-worst 5.25 adjusted line yards and 2.14 yards before contact (28th). These numbers come despite opposing offenses rushing at the sixth-highest rate against them (48.5%), while the Panthers' defense has been playing from behind or tied on 67.5% of their snaps. As current 9.5-point favorites, we should expect the Lions to roll out a run-heavy approach against this struggling run defense.

The real question here is: Should we keep holding our breath for a Jahmyr Gibbs breakout? That answer is very likely yes, as David Montgomery is doing exactly what the team wants: Grinding away the field and performing basically at the standard of running back play, as his rushing yards over expected (RYOE) currently sits at -0.09 per attempt, or, almost exactly average. Montgomery is this year’s Jamaal Williams, but he performs even better between the 20s and has to be in your starting lineup week in and week out. Gibbs will get his, such as his nine-target showing in Week 2, but he is only a FLEX option as it stands right now.

Falcons vs. Texans

Much like there’s no reason to tout Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in a good passing matchup, the same holds true for Bijan Robinson in a good matchup. You’re playing him no matter what; it’s not important who he’s lining up across from. Let’s instead focus on RB2 Tyler Allgeier as he prepares to get some work against a defense that ranks 28th in RB aFPA and 23rd in adjusted line yards (3.80).

Against two similarly ranked defenses in the opening weeks of the season (Panthers - 27th in ALY, Packers - 31st in ALY), Allgeier handled enough of a role to put him into fantasy consideration, racking up 142 total yards, three receptions, and two touchdowns. Granted, a lot of that production came in Bijan Robinson’s very first NFL game, but this matchup against the Texans could be a sneaky spot to get Allgeier back into your lineup after these last two games of near-zero production.

While ranking 29th in broken-plus-missed tackles allowed (14.0%), the Texans have managed to give up positive EPA per rushing attempt (ranking 24th) despite facing four teams that rank 15th or lower in adjusted line yards, two of which (Colts and Steelers) who rank in the bottom five. Allgeier is a scary play that could cash in for an RB3 week as the Falcons control the trenches.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Miles Sanders, Panthers
• Devin Singletary, Texans
• James Conner, Cardinals
• Roschon Johnson, Bears