Anthony Richardson Carries a Steep Price, but Mega Upside

As the QB5 by current Underdog ADP, you will need to be aggressive to land Anthony Richardson. However, coming off an injury-riddled rookie season, just how aggressive should you be? We’ll dive into why, even at QB5, Richardson could have the league-winning upside you need.

Click here for more 2024 Player Profiles!

Rookie Year Recap

Richardson was a giant risk when the Colts took him fourth overall in the 2023 Draft. He was never truly a standout at Florida and his passing numbers weren’t great. After his elite combine numbers, the rushing ability projected very well. There was a lot of projection with him and whether or not he’d be able to put it all together as a rookie.

We only got to see him in four games and three of those he left injured. The numbers won’t show he was an elite thrower, and completed under 60% of his passes, but it was far from the disaster a lot of people expected. A lot of this is just going to come down to vibes just because he didn’t have the full season of work to go off of.

However, in the games he did play, Richardson did put up the highest fantasy points per touch (passing + rushing) in the league. The vision is there, right? He was already elite on limited touches as a rookie accounting for seven touchdowns in just over 10 quarters of actual play. He had a lower interception rate (1.2%) than Gardner Minshew (1.7%) in the same offense and had a deeper depth of target, per SIS. Add in some positive rushing metrics, like the highest first down percentage of any rusher on the Colts and a solid broken tackle number, and it’s easy to see why he’s being drafted with his ceiling in mind at QB5.

The Weapons Around Anthony Richardson

Richardson's weaponry was far from elite in 2023 and given he only had one game with Jonathan Taylor it was even a little more bleak. This offseason the Colts paid big money to extend WR Michael Pittman Jr. and also used a second-round pick on WR Adonai Mitchell out of Texas and a fifth-round pick on WR Anthony Gould out of Oregon State. They also used a couple of mid-round draft picks to replenish the offensive line.

It isn’t a massive investment, but Pittman is now paid like a top-12 wide receiver. Mitchell should add another weapon on the outside opposite Pittman that can help Richardson after the Alec Pierce experiment has largely not panned out. It should also help that Jonathan Taylor is healthier heading into this season, but if something were to happen to Taylor the replacement likely isn’t on the roster with Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson behind him.

The most important weapon around Anthony Richardson remains head coach Shane Steichen. At this point, there’s no real reason to doubt Steichen can build off what we saw in limited fashion last season with Richardson. Remember, Steichen was the architect of Justin Herbert’s record-setting rookie season and also the architect of the Jalen Hurts offensive explosions of 2021 and 2022. One could argue that Gardner Minshew outperformed expectations for the Colts last season and Steichen even had a winning record with the No. 4 overall pick going down in the first quarter of the season.

Between Steichen’s pedigree and the creativity we saw in Richardson’s limited time in 2023, we should be very excited about this offense's potential in 2024. With a healthy Richardson and Taylor, Pittman back in the fold with Josh Downs and adding Mitchell, and the full tight end room returning, there is a lot for Shane Steichen to work with and get creative with.

Should You Worry About Richardson's Health?

Getting out in front of this, I genuinely don’t care about injuries. There’s enough research out there about injuries being largely random and not something to factor in while drafting that I won’t bore you with it.

However, it isn’t something you can completely ignore either. It’s not a fair comparison, but Robert Griffin III is still somewhat fresh in any fantasy manager’s mind who has been around for a while. They have completely different body types, different styles, everything. But we all remember the really exciting quarterback prospect who suffered a bunch of injuries.

Should that impact you when you’re on the clock? Absolutely not. Are you human and have your own biases? Yeah. I get the hesitancy to buy in from some people for injury concerns and potentially passing concerns they might have from the pre-draft process. However, it’s worth remembering what you win when you win. If Richardson maintains the best fantasy point scoring per touch again this year and stays healthy, you’re going to win big. Yes, you’ll have to pay for it, but we’ve seen how Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson can go on these incredible tears to become league winners.

The Bottom Line

• While in limited action due to injury, Anthony Richardson posted the highest point per attempt (passing + rushing) in the league last year.

• Shane Steichen has an incredible track record with quarterbacks and we should expect things to improve for Richardson’s second year through the air.

• The weapons are improved this year largely thanks to a healthy Jonathan Taylor, but adding A.D. Mitchell will greatly help Richardson.

• Injuries are a part of the game and there’s nothing that proves mobile quarterbacks are any more injury prone than pocket passers.

• At QB5, it is a steep price for Richardson, but his ceiling is immense. However, he is one of the few quarterbacks with a rising ADP over the last month.

• Richardson is ideal in any build, but in a best ball format I’m more likely to stack with 1-2 receiving options than 3-4 like more traditional pocket passers.