Who Should I Draft with the 9th Pick in Fantasy Football?

I tend to look back-to-front when tackling a fantasy football draft. Essentially, the profiles you should take early in the draft are the ones that are not available to you later. This article outlines the best player to take from the 9th spot of your fantasy draft based on ADP and specific scoring settings and provides a strategy on how to complement this first-round pick the rest of the way.

Our Perfect Draft series covers multiple draft spots in various scoring formats and league sizes using Draft Hero software. Find your perfect draft today!

• Here is a Perfect Draft from the 9th spot in a 12-team half-PPR league.

Standard League: A.J. Brown, WR (PHI)

I’ll dig into A.J. Brown specifically in the half-PPR scoring section below. But for standard leagues, I wanted to bring up the RB options around Brown. We’d ideally start with an RB who has the potential to distance himself from the rest of the field. The three RBs this year with the most obvious league-winning rushing and receiving volume are Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. Unfortunately, all three of those players will be off the board by pick nine.

The two RB options with the closest ADP to pick nine are Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. Even in a standard league, a target is more valuable than a carry, particularly a carry outside of the red zone. And I have real concerns about both the receiving volume and rushing TDs for both Taylor and Barkley. Those concerns stem from the hyper-mobility of their QBs. Yes, mobile QBs do tend to boost the rushing efficiency of their RBs. However, this is mostly on the margin. What hurts the value of their RBs much more is the lack of RB targets and QB-designed runs or scrambles near the goal line.

Taylor finished as the RB5 last season in standard fantasy points per game and he’s the RB4 in ADP. That seems completely reasonable on the surface. The issue with Taylor as the ninth overall pick is his ability to separate from the rest of the field. Last season, the gap in fantasy points per game between Taylor and the RB2 was the same as between Taylor and the RB30. Taylor was 44th among 49 qualifying RBs in targets per route run, ultimately earning fewer than two receptions per game. And now we’re introducing Anthony Richardson who is even less likely to check down and more likely to steal goal-line touches.

It’s a similar story for Barkley. He was the RB9 in standard fantasy points per game last year. And he’s absolutely joining a better offense than he had with the Giants. But he’s a 27-year-old back showing some signs of decline with an average 10.5% explosive run rate and a concerning 12.6% avoided tackle rate. D'Andre Swift was hyped up last offseason for the receiving volume the Eagles planned to give him. But he only finished 27th in targets per route run among RBs. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts finished with his third consecutive double-digit rushing TD season.

If we’re taking an RB in the first round, we want that RB to have a league-winning profile. We want a combination of rushing efficiency, receiving volume, and goal-line work. At pick 9 this year, we’re faced with RB profiles that lack both guaranteed receiving volume and expected rushing TDs. Profiles like these can easily be found in the rounds ahead. Strategically, I would pass over Taylor and Barkley in round one to select an elite WR profile that isn’t available later in the draft. And I would spend two of my next three picks on RBs to make sure I’m not falling too far behind in a standard league. RBs like Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane in the second round and Kenneth Walker in the fourth round are good options.

Best Alternative Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs

PPR Scoring: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR - (DET)

Let’s start with the concerns for Amon-Ra St. Brown because I don’t have many. The first is we’d ideally like his average depth of target (aDoT) to be deeper down the field. His 8-yard aDoT is about three yards below the average of WRs drafted near him. Only Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp were in a similar range last year. Shorter aDoTs require talent after the catch to hit the efficiency we’re looking for in top WRs. The other concern is his ESPN Analytics’ open score of 58 narrowly missed the first benchmark of 60 that I found when looking at The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats.

But really, that’s about it for concerns. St. Brown cleared the benchmarks for all of the other predictable stats. He had 2.63 yards per route run (YPRR), which is particularly impressive given his shallower aDoT. He finished fourth in the league with 13.0% first downs per route run (1DRR) and fifth in the league with 94.7 receiving yards per game. St. Brown ultimately finished fourth in full-PPR fantasy points per game, where there was a large tier break after WR5.

There doesn’t seem to be an obvious reason for St. Brown’s target dominance to change. Jameson Williams has been getting a lot of hype this offseason but I’m willing to bet against that. In a recent email newsletter, JJ Zachariason mentioned that Williams has scored 2.5 and 6.7 PPR points per game during his first two NFL seasons. Among the 500 WRs that failed to hit 7.0 PPR points per game in their first two seasons, only eight of them hit 10+ points in their third season. Now, Williams has had a very unique start to his career and was a great prospect, but history is not on his side.

Strategically, I am trying to get at least one RB in the first three rounds. Ideally, it’s an RB like Jahmyr Gibbs or De'Von Achane who is an efficient runner with the potential for a huge receiving workload. Getting this RB affords us the opportunity to get both an elite QB and elite TE in rounds four and five. The lack of success elite QBs and TEs had last year has artificially lowered their prices this year. This anchor RB also lets us take both Malik Nabers and Xavier Worthy. These rookie WRs are going far too late in home-league drafts. And then, I’d turn my attention to efficiency- and receiving-based RB plays.

Best Alternative Pick: A.J. Brown

Half-PPR Scoring: A.J. Brown, WR - (PHI)

A.J. Brown is someone we have no questions about when it comes to both talent and efficiency turning into volume. He checks every box. Last year, Brown finished fifth in ESPN Analytics’ open score, ninth in yards per route run (YPRR), eighth in first downs per route run (1DRR), and eighth in yards per game.

And there is an additional element that provides hope for even better numbers in 2024. With Brian Johnson as the OC, the Eagles were league-average in situation-neutral pace. When I looked at who is more likely to determine a team’s pace, a QB or a new offensive coordinator, I found that it’s almost always the QB with a few notable exceptions. The most glaring exception has been Kellen Moore.

The graph below shows the average number of seconds remaining on the play clock when the ball was snapped throughout Dak Prescott’s career. And the dashed line shows when Kellen Moore was hired in Dallas. The average number of seconds remaining on the play clock averaged 8-to-10 seconds for Dak Prescott in the years before Moore was hired. Starting in 2019, though, the Cowboys’ pace quickened dramatically, with a peak of almost 15 seconds remaining on average.

With Kellen Moore now in Philadelphia, the Eagles are going to play a lot faster in 2024. We should also see things more pre-snap motion, something the Eagles ranked dead-last in last season, and crucial answers to blitz-heavy defenses. Ultimately, a faster pace and more modern offensive tendencies will provide additional opportunities for Brown to score us fantasy points.

Just like with St. Brown, I’d like to go with a hero RB approach after selecting Brown. And I want that RB to be young, efficient, and a potential dominant receiving threat. That RB lets us get an elite QB, an elite TE, and both Nabers and Worthy as rookie WRs who are too cheap on Yahoo or ESPN. Then, we can target players like Jaylen Warren and Tyjae Spears who check the crucial efficiency and receiving boxes and are available later in our drafts.

Best Alternative Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Superflex: Kyler Murray, QB - (ARI)

Kyler Murray is a target of mine in every league format. And he just so happens to have an ADP of nine in most superflex re-draft leagues. Murray finished 2023 as QB11 but was less than a point per game away from Jordan Love at QB6. The two most important variables I found when looking at The Most Predictable Quarterback Stats were fantasy points per dropback and rushing yards per game. I found that you want to target QBs with a fantasy point per dropback mark above 0.55 and avoid QBs that fall below 0.45. In addition, you want to target QBs that run for more than 20 yards per game.

Murray fell right in the middle of the fantasy point per dropback range we care about with 0.49. If we include Anthony Richardson’s small sample, only five QBs hit that 0.55 benchmark in 2023. Four out of those five QBs earned at least 30 rushing yards per game. Murray hit 30.5 rushing yards per game last season and there is reason for optimism surrounding his passing efficiency.

The 2023 Cardinals had the second-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league. And there were good reasons for that. Murray was coming off of an injury, their receiving weapons were limited, and they had one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the league. But with Murray now fully healthy and after selecting Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the draft, I think it’s reasonable to expect their PROE to move closer to the league average. More volume and efficiency for Murray means his ceiling is as high as QB4, after the dual-threat aliens Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. But his rushing volume makes that ceiling much more likely compared to pure pocket passers that are drafted around his ADP.

The most important strategic decision in superflex leagues is when to draft your second QB. After drafting Murray, I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary to take your QB2 in the second round. In past years, there has typically been a QB with rushing upside that goes much later than he should. There really isn’t that player this year. Perhaps the most applicable name is Jayden Daniels, though he is priced up to the second round in superflex leagues. He’s a risky pick, but one I think is worth taking.

Among QB prospects who have entered the NFL since 2015, Daniels’ scramble rate is 100th percentile. I’d argue his rushing volume is a lock. And we should also see the Commanders play with a lot more pace in 2024. They were below-average in situation-neutral pace last season, but their new play caller Kliff Kingsburgy’s teams often lead the league in both pace and no-huddle rate. We’ve seen this in a limited sample during the preseason, as the Commanders have been the fastest team thus far. Combine his rushing with pace and Daniels is the QB drafted outside the top 10 of the position that has the best chance to compete with the elite QB selections.

Best Alternative Pick: CeeDee Lamb

Top Late-Round Targets

My top late-round targets are almost exclusively running backs. In most cases, I’ve selected at minimum four WRs that I’m comfortable starting each week. And this season, in particular, I’m trying to take advantage of the lower costs of elite QBs and TEs relative to last year. With all of this in mind, the weakest position in my starting lineup is almost always my RB2. And so, with limited early draft capital allocated to the position, I’m attacking the position late with volume. These RBs ideally check as many of the following boxes as possible: youth, rushing efficiency, receiving volume, and good offensive environment.

RB2 targets within this framework that have round eight or later ADPs include Jaylen Warren, Jonathon Brooks, Tyjae Spears, and Chase Brown. I’m also trying to leave every draft with one Cowboys RB and one Chargers RB. These RB rooms have a lot of potential but are priced down due to a massive amount of uncertainty. Don’t shy away from the uncertainty but instead lean into it. My picks for those rooms are Rico Dowdle and J.K. Dobbins but take Ezekiel Elliott or Gus Edwards if you disagree. And then I’m also taking players like MarShawn Lloyd (but monitor his injury status), Jaylen Wright, Bucky Irving, and Ray Davis because they’re great handcuffs on what should be good offenses.

Below is a realistic 16-round draft with the ninth overall pick in a 12-team half-PPR league. The following table shows the round you can expect to draft each player.