O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 2

Sep 11, 2024

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 2 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DET	TB	29	28
10	TB	DET	31	21
6	ATL	PHI	26	20
2	PHI	ATL	22	20
5	KC	CIN	24	19
4	IND	GB	21	17
13	CLE	JAX	27	14
7	DAL	NO	18	11
21	CHI	HOU	30	9
23	ARI	LAR	28	5
11	CIN	KC	14	3
32	NYG	WAS	32	0
20	NYJ	TEN	20	0
8	PIT	DEN	8	0
3	LAC	CAR	2	-1
27	CAR	LAC	25	-2
25	LAR	ARI	23	-2
9	MIN	SF	7	-2
19	BAL	LVR	16	-3
22	MIA	BUF	19	-3
16	BUF	MIA	12	-4
14	GB	IND	10	-4
12	DEN	PIT	4	-8
17	HOU	CHI	9	-8
18	LVR	BAL	6	-12
15	SF	MIN	3	-12
30	SEA	NE	17	-13
26	NO	DAL	11	-15
29	NE	SEA	13	-16
31	WAS	NYG	15	-16
24	JAX	CLE	5	-19
28	TEN	NYJ	1	-27

Lions vs. Buccaneers

This is a good matchup for both offenses and with a slate-high point total (51), we should be trying to get as many pieces on each side as possible.

On the Lions side of the equation, they operated in their typical high-level fashion during Week 1’s overtime win, allowing Goff to feel pressure on a league-average 29.0% of his dropbacks as he continually took advantage of Jameson Williams’ catch-and-run ability. For those of us waiting the last couple of years for Williams to pop up like this (5-121-1), it was an incredible sight to see, but expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to work his way back into his huge target share here in Week 2.

Following last week’s blanking of the Rams’ pass rush, right tackle Penei Sewell now has a streak of nine games (including playoffs) without allowing a sack as he attempts to match his own personal-best nineteen-game streak that proceeded it. There’s not much reason to believe the Detroit front will fall out of the number one slot this season, which should boost those St. Brown stats down the line.

Eagles vs. Falcons

In the first game of the post-Jason Kelce era, the Eagles offensive line looked no worse for wear, earning 119 yards and seven first downs on rushes between the tackles, per Sports Info Solutions. They were just as good in the passing game, allowing a lowly 6.1% adjusted sack rate and a 21.1% pressure rate. Jalen Hurts was definitely not exceptional **when** he found pressure, though, completing only four of his thirteen attempts (30.8%) and tossing one of his two interceptions.

We can hopefully put that performance behind us and focus on their Week 2 opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, who forced pressure at a 17.2% clip on Opening Weekend, the fifth-lowest rate. This follows in last year’s trend when they finished 30th, even after they added Matthew Judon for the pass rush and Justin Simmons to bolster their safety room this offseason.

The Falcons kept the Steelers out of the end zone during their clunky 18-10 loss, but still only managed to finish 21st in EPA per dropback (0.04) while facing Justin Fields and a depleted wide receiver group. They’re not going to have that luxury here in Week 2 against Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and one of the best offensive lines in the league. Fire up all your Eagles, including Dallas Goedert.

Colts @ Packers

There are many takeaways from Week 1 of the regular season and one of those is that Anthony Richardson has an absolute cannon. Though it’s a little skewed by his marginal 19 pass attempts, the sophomore had an outlandish 17.3 average depth of target, racking up 212 yards on a measly nine completions. If nothing else, it was certainly fun to watch.

Per @NextGenStats,

This ARich throw traveled 65.3 yards in the air 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Ag5j18reoA

— Bleacher Nation Fantasy (@FantasyLifeApp) September 9, 2024

Is going 9-for-19 (47.4%) with an interception encouraging? No, not necessarily, but what makes Richardson so appealing is his legs, and he delivered 50+ yards and a score on the ground, so we’ll take some errant throws from time to time. The Colts o-line did what they could to give him some solid footing as well, allowing only five pressures, with three of them coming from right tackle Braden Smith, who tied for the sixth-highest pass-blocking efficiency (97.7%) among 89 qualifiers in 2023.

There are more good days to come, but let’s temper our expectations for pass-catchers in Week 2, as a shootout feels very unlikely with Malik Willis on the other side of the coin. Michael Pittman Jr. should be considered a WR3, while the likes of Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are much closer to desperation plays.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Seahawks @ Patriots

The Patriots' offense looked right in line with what we thought they’d be heading into the season, as Jacoby Brissett notched 5.0 yards per attempt. New England took 30.9 seconds per snap (26th) and delivered a 39.1%-to-60.9% pass-to-rush ratio (31st) in Week 1. Typically, those types of pace stats don’t turn into fantasy goodness for D/ST starts, but it could also deliver one of the easiest floor plays of Week 2.

The Patriots offensive line continued to struggle despite a game script that should benefit a rush-heavy team. They earned a 2.69% blown-block rate, ranking 26th on the week after finishing 27th last year in that metric. They also sported a 37.9% pressure rate (fifth-highest) despite Brissett dropping back to pass all of six times in the fourth quarter.

Ravens vs. Raiders

In Week 1, the Raiders' run-heavy approach amounted to 63 yards on 18 running back carries (3.5 YPC) and the league’s lowest EPA per attempt (-0.62). Their mentality may need to change, and Week 2 is an excellent time to try that out against a Ravens team that is currently projected as 9.5-point favorites, by far the highest mark on the slate.

If Garnder Minshew is tasked with airing the ball out against a Ravens pass rush that is free to pin their ears back, that could be trouble. Left tackle, Kolton Miller has progressed into a stud, but the Ravens have plenty of pieces to move around, including to the other side of the line to take advantage of RT Thayer Munford.

Las Vegas will attempt to find the red zone for just the second time in the season against Baltimore, and they’ll likely be doing it from an early deficit.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
14	GB	IND	31	17
7	DAL	NO	23	16
3	LAC	CAR	19	16
11	CIN	KC	26	15
8	PIT	DEN	21	13
12	DEN	PIT	24	12
4	IND	GB	16	12
5	KC	CIN	14	9
9	MIN	SF	17	8
2	PHI	ATL	9	7
19	BAL	LVR	25	6
25	LAR	ARI	30	5
1	DET	TB	4	3
13	CLE	JAX	15	2
10	TB	DET	11	1
6	ATL	PHI	6	0
29	NE	SEA	29	0
32	NYG	WAS	32	0
20	NYJ	TEN	20	0
28	TEN	NYJ	28	0
26	NO	DAL	22	-4
31	WAS	NYG	27	-4
17	HOU	CHI	10	-7
15	SF	MIN	7	-8
27	CAR	LAC	18	-9
22	MIA	BUF	12	-10
24	JAX	CLE	13	-11
16	BUF	MIA	2	-14
21	CHI	HOU	5	-16
18	LVR	BAL	1	-17
23	ARI	LAR	3	-20
30	SEA	NE	8	-22

Chargers @ Panthers

It didn’t take long for rookie Joe Alt to prove that he belongs at the NFL level, performing more than admirably against All-Pro Maxx Crosby in pass protection. Now, the O-line unit will look to gel further in the rushing attack, and they’ll do so against a Panthers defense that allowed Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams to combine for 121 yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts (4.65 YPC).

Though J.K. Dobbins set the slate alight last week with 135 yards on ten carries, the Chargers got so much movement up front that their running backs averaged 3.43 yards before contact. If that seems like a lot, it is. The Dolphins led the league (by a lot) last year, and their full-season mark was 2.34.

It’s going to feel uncomfortable, but Dobbins belongs in fantasy lineups as an RB2, while Gus Edwards can be used as a deep-league Flex play for desperate managers.

Bengals @ Chiefs

The Bengals offense was in shambles last week, with Tee Higgins sidelined and Joe Burrow seemingly still flexing out his throwing-hand injury that might not be healed after all. Where they did look good —when they were able to showcase it— was on the ground, where Zack Moss took his moderate nine carries for 44 yards and a touchdown, while the offensive line ranked 11th in RB yards before contact (1.92).

On the other side of this matchup, the Chiefs' defense allowed the third-highest EPA per attempt (0.24) and still ranked 30th (0.19) if we remove runs from Lamar Jackson. If Burrow truly is still limited, the Bengals would probably be smart to slow this game down as much as humanly possible to disrupt the flow of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense. Will it work? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean Moss shouldn’t be considered an RB2 in Week 2.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: