10 Things You Need to Know About Week 9 for Fantasy Football

We had some big variance in air yards by offense last week. Four QBs had an average depth of target below an incredibly low 5.5 yards in Week 8. And we simultaneously had three QBs with an aDoT over 11 yards. Let’s start with the new “leader” in lowest air yards per attempt on the season: Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua Tagovailoa: Same Quick Passing but with New and Worse Air Yards!

The graph below shows average time to throw on the x-axis. That is just the number of seconds after the snap that we typically get a QB pass attempt. And the y-axis shows average air yards per attempt. I’ve included Tagovailoa’s 2023 season as well and circled both last season and his current year. Part of Tagovailoa’s superpower last year was that he could get the ball out extremely fast but maintain a league-average air yards per attempt. The speed of his WRs and the pre-snap motion that created free releases, combined with Tagovailoa’s quick processing, made this passing attack very difficult to stop.

It hasn’t quite been the same in 2024. His time to throw is almost identical and remains an outlier versus the rest of the league. But Tagovailoa’s average depth of target is about two yards lower than last year. A lot of that is the reliance on De'Von Achane as the secondary option after Tyreek Hill. For example, Achane had eight targets last week, with an average of -2 air yards per target. And they worked, as Achane somehow turned those behind-the-line-of-scrimmage targets into 50 receiving yards. But this is typically a harder, less sustainable way to get by. And with that, we could see some larger fluctuations in weekly passing yards for the Dolphins. The biggest ding here is to Jaylen Waddle. Waddle being the distant third receiving option on this team wasn’t on my bingo card.

Lions: Special Teams on a Special Team

Sam LaPorta finally had a good fantasy outing. All it took was a Jameson Williams suspension and David Montgomery at QB. But for once, the underlying stats actually look better than the box score. And that’s because Jared Goff only attempted 15 passes against the Titans. Additionally, Goff was one of the four passers with an aDoT below 5.5 yards last week. So, those small number of pass attempts weren’t even deep down the field. The Lions impressively averaged more yards per rush attempt than per pass in Week 8.

The graph below shows total expected points added from special teams on the x-axis and from penalties on the y-axis. And we’re only looking at Week 8 here. You’ll see the Lions separated from the pack in the top-right and the Titans also separated in the bottom-left. The combined 23 EPA advantage on special teams and penalties for the Lions is the largest I’ve ever seen. But these are flukier aspects of a football game that should reverse. What we really need are opposing offenses to push the Lions into actually having to pass. Luckily, the Lions fantasy playoff schedule of the Bills, Bears, and 49ers should do that nicely. I doubt we ever see a 7-receiving yard game from Amon-Ra St. Brown again.

Colts: “Evaluating Everything”

Anthony Richardson and Josh Downs finally linked up in Week 8. Downs was about as wide open as you could possibly be for a 69-yard reception in the first quarter. In general, though, the on/off splits for Richardson and Joe Flacco have been frustrating for managers of Colts receivers. This has particularly been the case for Downs as he operates mostly out of the slot and Richardson likes to throw the ball at least 15 yards down the field. In the graph above in the Tagovailoa section, Richardson is about as wide open as Downs was for that long reception. He’s more than three yards above the next closest QB in air yards per attempt. And the results haven’t been pretty.

Richardson has only one game this year with over 11 or more completions. In response, the Colts' head coach Shane Steichen said that they were “evaluating everything” when asked if Richardson would remain the team’s starting QB. And then they subsequently announced that they’re replacing Richardson with Flacco. I firmly disagree with this decision. Flacco isn’t the long-term answer in Indianapolis. What is the point of switching away from your QB who is a year younger than Jayden Daniels and has 10 career starts? Do the Colts really want to lose in the wildcard that badly? Regardless, the switch is a big boost to every Colts pass catcher in fantasy, particularly Downs.

Bo Nix: Efficiency Change

Bo Nix surprisingly had the 6th-highest average target depth in Week 8, stuck right between Jordan Love and Jameis Winston. On the season, Nix’s efficiency has been derived from avoiding negative plays like sacks and interceptions and picking up chunk gains with his legs. Air yards have hurt his efficiency more than any other component. But that changed sharply last week.

Nix’s average pass attempt was 3.2 yards past the first down marker, good for 4th-highest in the league last week. And he finished the day with a completion percentage seven percent over expectation. Now, the matchup was fantastic. The Panthers had the 2nd-lowest defensive pass EPA going into the game. But Nix was able to take advantage of the matchup and showed the ability to push the ball down the field. This growth is excellent news for Courtland Sutton even if the Broncos don’t get to play the Panthers every week.

Jameis Winston: Finally

Finishing up the air yards focus is Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns. How nice was it to watch an actual NFL QB play for this team in Week 8? Winston finished the day with over 300 passing yards. The last time that Deshaun Watson did that was in January 2021. He didn’t throw an interception in this one, but he did have a high aDoT and threw into tight windows at an above-average rate. Additionally, his turnover-worthy play rate is the 2nd-highest in the league among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, according to PFF. We’re getting the full experience. And that’s great news for Cedric Tillman.

Tillman was a hot waiver addition following Week 7 after he earned 12 targets without Amari Cooper. But he followed that up with a 7/99/2 line against the Ravens on nine targets. Now, the Ravens' defense has been particularly susceptible to explosive passing plays this season. And the Browns face the impressive Chargers defense in Week 9 who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. But Tillman’s back-to-back 7+ reception games are seemingly for real, especially since he’s earning over 25% of the first-read targets, according to Fantasy Points.

Cowboys: Aggressively Predictable

The Cowboys offense can be summed up quickly. Especially without Rico Dowdle last week, they do not have an efficient ground attack. Dak Prescott isn’t helping that aspect at all, as he hasn’t exceeded two rushing attempts in any game this season. In the passing game, they have one WR that can consistently separate. In response, Dak is throwing into tight windows at the highest rate in the league. The graph below shows tight window throw rate on the x-axis and how close the average pass attempt is to a first down on the y-axis.

You’ll find Prescott on his own all the way on the right of the graph. He’s the only qualifying QB with a tight window throw rate over 20%. And he has four multi-interception games this season. This entire offense moving forward is just Prescott throwing half of his attempts to CeeDee Lamb and hoping that’s enough. But their defense has also been terrible. There is just too much on Dak’s shoulders given that he has one talented player on offense with him. They’ve got some solid matchups down the stretch like the Bengals and Panthers in weeks 14 and 15, but this otherwise could be a mess.

Eagles: They Have to Pass Eventually, Right?

Sticking in the NFC East, Jalen Hurts had his most efficient day in his career last week. And it wasn’t just the three rushing TDs that got him there, though they helped of course. But he was also a remarkably efficient passer on a small sample. He threw the ball more consistently over the middle of the field and past the sticks. He finished the day with a completion percentage of 20.2% over expectation, which was easily the highest of the week.

Now, part of that is on the Bengals' defense, who have not been very good this season. The graph below shows defensive passing EPA on the x-axis and rushing EPA on the y-axis. You’ll find the Bengals' defense in the bottom-left right next to the Cowboys, which is definitely not where you’d like to be. Similar to the Lions, we really need opposing offenses to push the Eagles to pass the ball. We unfortunately don’t get a lot of that during the fantasy playoffs, with games against both the Steelers and the aforementioned Cowboys. But 35 pass attempts over two games is low for any NFL team. That should increase regardless of opponent. And that’s great news for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Trey McBride: The Touchdowns Will Come

The graph below is a simple one; it’s just receiving yards on the x-axis and touchdowns and the y-axis. And we’re only looking at TEs with at least 25 receptions this season. You’ll find Trey McBride all the way in the bottom-right. He’s third among TEs in yards but tied (with a lot of names) for last with zero touchdowns. On average, TEs have one touchdown for every 176 receiving yards this season. That means that if McBride was just average, he would have 2.5 touchdowns on the season or the equivalent of two additional fantasy points per game for our squads.

And at this point, I’m confident that McBride is far better than average. In his completed games this season, he hasn’t finished below a 25% target share. And what was particularly encouraging was that his volume didn’t dip despite a big game from Marvin Harrison Jr. last week. The Cardinals finally decided to give their talented rookie some in-breaking routes and crossers, rather than just pinning him to the sideline. And Harrison finished the day with the most yards and second-most receptions in his young career. But even with Harrison shining, McBride put up his best game of the season with a 9/124/0 line. The touchdowns are coming for McBride.

J.K. Dobbins: Recently Inefficient but No Signs of a Change

Earlier in the season, J.K. Dobbins was breaking my graphs in a good way. He was such an outlier in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) that I had to leave him off some graphs to clearly see the other names. Eight weeks into the season Dobbins has come back down to earth sharply. The graph below shows RYOE per attempt on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. Dobbins is located near the bottom of the graph, with a success rate around D’Andre Swift and Rachaad White.

Dobbins’ Week 8 performance was discouraging because he had a great matchup against a Saints run defense that has been tackling poorly all season. But the rushing volume was still there, along with a spike in receiving volume. His seven targets were three more than in any other game this season. And there isn’t an obvious candidate to take away Dobbins’ workload. Kimani Vidal is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry on a very small sample. He frankly hasn’t done enough yet to supplant Dobbins. But it’s looking more likely that Dobbins is a volume-only play, rather than an efficiency-based one moving forward.

Week 9 Passing and Rushing Matchups

The graphs below show the Week 9 matchups split between passing and rushing. Each graph shows the offense’s efficiency on the x-axis and their opponent’s defensive efficiency on the y-axis. You’ll find the Falcons in the top-right of both graphs. That’s just how it is with the current state of the Cowboys defense. With that in mind, the Falcons are 2.5-point favorites. It’s obviously a great spot for Bijan Robinson, but if the Falcons are able to pull away substantially, it could be a sneaky spot for Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons play Allgeier a lot more in games with a lead.

The Eagles have the best passing spot on paper, but we’ll need the Jaguars offense to push the Eagles. Otherwise, they’ll just run the ball well above expectation again. We could see a lot of rushing in the Panthers/Saints matchup, with both teams sneaking into the top-right of the graph. Otherwise, we’ve got some good matchups for Kareem Hunt, Kyren Williams, and Brian Robinson Jr.