Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Broncos at Raiders

Even though Antonio Brown won't be on the field for tonight's Broncos/Raiders game, his presence (or lack thereof) will be felt as it has had a substantial impact on the fantasy outlooks for numerous players. We're going to look at those impacts and try and help you find the players that will give you the best edge in constructing your single-game DFS lineups tonight.

Let's break down the game in more detail...

Injuries

• J.J. Nelson, WR, OAK - Questionable

It appears Nelson will play, but if he doesn't it's a bump to the volume of Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Grant, and possibly Jalen Richard.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Denver -2.5; Over/Under 42.5

Vegas expects points to be scored in this game and also figures the home team Saints to win comfortably. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

• Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 30%
• Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 30%
• Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 10%
• Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 5%
• Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 5%
• Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 5%
• Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 5%
• Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 5%
• Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 5%

What Players Benefit Most From Potential Gameflow

Close, low-scoring game (<40 points)

• Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK
• Royce Freeman, RB, DEN
• Broncos DST
• Both kickers

Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points)

• Derek Carr, QB, OAK
• Joe Flacco, QB, DEN
• Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
• Tyrell Williams, WR, OAK
• Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK
• Phillip Lindsay, RB, DEN

Close, high-scoring game (50+ points)

• Derek Carr, QB, OAK
• Joe Flacco, QB, DEN

Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game

• Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK
• Raiders DST

Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game

• Josh Jacobs RB, OAK
• Raiders DST

Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game

• Josh Jacobs, RB, OAK
• Derek Carr, QB, OAK
• Joe Flacco, QB, DEN

Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game

• Royce Freeman, RB, DEN
• Broncos DST

Blowout for the away team, average or high-scoring game

• Phillip Lindsay, RB, DEN
• Joe Flacco, QB, DEN
• Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN

Pricing and Projections

These projections are taken from the industry-leading 4for4 DFS projections at the time this article was written. The prices listed are the default single-game prices on both sites. For the Captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and subsequent fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster positions.

Roster Construction

The Captain/MVP Slot

On FanDuel, you're looking at mainly one of three players. Either of the starting QB's or Josh Jacobs, the new bellcow RB (supposedly) in Oakland. On DraftKings, it's a bit murkier as you'll see from the optimal lineup construction breakdown below. Jacobs is the top candidate in that breakdown and Flacco shows up in a good percentage, but you can throw in the Denver RB's (both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman) into the equation. Tyrell Williams is the only WR who shows up in any significance and he's the only one I'd consider in the MVP slot. Vegas thinks this will be a low-scoring game and I tend to agree. The probable outcomes above emphasize that. I'll mainly be sticking with the RBs and a smattering of QBs in the multiplier spots with a small percentage of Tyrell Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Emmanuel Sanders to round out my rosters.

Ownership

The players that make the best plays in the multiplier spots will also likely be the highest owned. I expect Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, Phillip Lindsay, and the two QB's to garner the most ownership. The kickers will probably top the 20% mark and I can see a world where the Broncos DST is above that mark as well. Others that I expect to top 20% ownership include Darren Waller, Courtland Sutton, Emmanuel Sanders, and possibly Royce Freeman.

Potential Low-Owned Difference Makers

Hunter Renfroe will potentially garner ownership, but I think his price it a bit too high to get substantial push into lineups and in fact, I think the prices of his WR counterparts Ryan Grant and J.J. Nelson make them infinitely better plays as they afford much more salary relief and might even be starting ahead of Renfroe (if you watched any of the pre-season games, those two were on the field ahead of Renfroe). I like both of them, even if they don't show up in a lot of optimal lineups. Especially if you think the game script has the Raiders behind and passing a lot.

I'd love Darren Waller here if I thought his ownership was going to be low, but I don't think it will be. I love Royce Freeman on DK where his price is at a significant discount compared to his price on FD. I don't think his ownership will be super low though so it's a play where I'm just going to want to be overweight compared to the field (probably 40-50% as opposed to what I think will be 20-30% ownership).

Optimal Lineup Construction

Using the 4for4 projections these are the optimal ownership numbers when running the numbers through a 300-lineup model:

Where's the Edge?

If we go by the optimal lineup construction above, it tells us a few things we can use.

• Fade the defenses
• Fade any WR not named Tyrell Williams
• Fade the TEs
• Play the RBs and the QBs

Considering I think we'll see many people constructing lineups with the Broncos WRs and Darren Waller, we can find significant leverage by going with a different approach that focuses on the RB production and relying on the QBs for any production that comes through the air. It is expected to be a low-scoring game, so that makes a lot of sense when you look at what potential game flows benefit players the most. If you see a world where this game turns into a shootout, then go with Waller and the WRs, but if you foresee a slow drawn-out game, go with what makes the most sense (the running game dominating).