Week 7 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Oct 23, 2020

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Week 6 Recap: While my ATS season record still stinks (8-9-1), last week marked back-to-back winning weeks, as the Eagles (+7.5) stormed back in the fourth quarter to nearly upset the Ravens outright and the Bucs (+1) routed the Packers at Raymond James Stadium despite falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter. My lone loss was the Vikings, who put forth a putrid performance as a 4-point home favorite against the Falcons. Three weeks ago I vowed to right the ship with my picks and the past two Sundays have been good. Let’s string together three in a row and make this an official winning streak.

465 Green Bay Packers at 466 Houston Texans

Spread: Packers -3.5
O/U: 57
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 25

I faded the Packers last week because I felt they were overvalued coming off their bye while the Bucs were undervalued following their upset loss to the Bears on national television on the prior Thursday. This week, Green Bay looks undervalued coming off the loss and laying such a small number against a 1-5 Houston squad.

While it’s important to pick and choose your spots, one angle I like playing in football is backing a good team coming off a loss. It’s not as if the Bucs exposed the Packers last Sunday at Raymond James Stadium; their excellent defense merely came up with a couple of huge takeaways in the first half and Green Bay never recovered. Those two teams could play that game 10 times and split, which is why the point spread was basically a pick’em.

That said, since the Pack lost, now we have an opportunity to back a motivated 4-1 team with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers, who is 40-21-1 (66%) against the spread when Green Bay failed to cover in its previous contest.

This weekend, Rodgers and the Packers offense will face a Houston defense that was on the field for 70 plays in the team’s overtime loss to the Titans. Even though the Texans won the game 30-14, their defense was on the field for 73 plays the previous week versus the Jaguars. Assuming Rodgers and Co. assault Houston with a bevy of short, quick passes intended to possess the ball for long periods of time to sustain drives, this Texans defense will wilt.

Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson has been more efficient the past three weeks compared to Houston’s first three games and there’s an inherent risk in fading the dynamic quarterback. That said, if we buy the hook and take the Packers down to -3, I feel comfortable rolling the dice that Watson won’t be as efficient on Sunday against Green Bay's stout defense as he has been the past three weeks.

NFL Week 7 ATS Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 (Buy the Hook)