Week 14 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
This week we have some monster favorites, with five games boasting spreads of a touchdown or more. There are some close contests as well, so there is certainly some value to be had in Week 14.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 14, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make some smart decisions to keep you going for the final push of the 2020 season.
Week 13 Recap
This was not a great week for me, as my picks went 2-2. Both the Dolphins and Rams came out on top, but Seattle and the Titans struggled to win as favorites.
Through 13 weeks, my picks in this column are now 40-14.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 14 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and number of weeks remaining.
As usual, these picks are sorted according to where they sit on the risk/reward spectrum. I try to provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 14 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorite
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
This NFC North contest features a 9-point spread in favor of the traveling Packers, with TeamRankings giving them 77% odds to win. Public bettors are currently taking Green Bay 89% of the time—and with good reason.
Aaron Rodgers and his offense are rolling, and the Lions just don’t have the defensive manpower to shut them down. Detroit found a spark last Sunday after Matt Patricia’s firing, but I just don’t think it’s enough to take down the Packers this week.
As I remind you each week in the favorites, you’ll win or lose this pick with most people in your pool or contest.
Sensibly Priced Favorite
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
Heading into the season, this would have been a no-brainer, but the Dolphins are playing well above preseason expectations and come into this contest with an 8-4 record. Their defense has been stellar in recent weeks, but they have also faced teams led by Drew Lock, Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen. With Patrick Mahomes in town, this could lead to a shoot out that Miami doesn’t have the weaponry to keep up with.
The Chiefs boast 76% win odds via TeamRankings and are favored by over a touchdown (7.5 points), but just enough of the public is taking the upset (14%) that the pick provides some value.
Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals
We have two middling teams here, but the difference is at the quarterback position. It’s a revenge game for Andy Dalton, who hasn’t been awful at the helm, compared to the Joe Burrow-less Bengals.
Dallas is currently a 3.5-point favorite in this contest, with 65% odds to win. Enough of the public (36%) is going with the Bengals upset, that sticking with the Cowboys is a smart move in game-winner pools.
Value Favorite
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills are favored by 2.5 points in this key AFC Sunday Night matchup, with 58% odds to win by both Vegas and TeamRankings. With only 61% of the public backing the home team here, it makes sense to go with the favorite.
Plus, I think Buffalo should win this one. The Steelers are playing on a short week and their receivers are suffering from a massive case of the drops. Yes, they have a great defense, but Josh Allen seems to play better when pressured, in fact, two of his best games this season came when he was sacked the most:
- Week 3: 4 sacks - 311 passing yards and four touchdowns
- Week 9: 7 sacks - 415 passing yards and three touchdowns
This should be a great primetime contest with a close score, but I like the Bills to come out on top.
Survivor Picks for Week 14
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 14 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Jets (86%, 13.5-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers @ Lions (79%, 9-point favorites)
- Tennessee Titans @ Jaguars (76%, 9-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Dolphins (75%, 7.5-point favorites)
- New Orleans Saints @ Eagles (74%, 7-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 14 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Jets (54%)
- Tennessee Titans @ Jaguars (19%)
- New Orleans Saints @ Eagles (5%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Vikings (3%)
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Football Team (3%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 14, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Baltimore Ravens (3.3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (2.5)
- Green Bay Packers (2.0)
- New Orleans Saints (1.8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (1.7)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
