NFL Week 15 Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Dec 18, 2020

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

NFL Week 14 Recap: Without fail, the moment you start to brag, however slightly, about recent betting success, you will receive a visit from the gambling gods.

In last week’s recap, I noted I was 16-11-1 ATS (59%) since Week 5 of the season. Naturally, I went on to post an 0-3 record in Week 15. The Giants (+3) weren’t competitive versus the Cardinals, the Panthers (-3) were barely competitive versus the Broncos and Matt Ryan ensured I recorded the hat trick from hell when he threw interceptions on the Falcons’ final two possessions to lose to the Chargers.

No excuses. The picks were trash. Let’s turn last week’s setback into our biggest comeback.

351 Tampa Bay Bucs (-6) at 352 Atlanta Falcons (+6)

Spread: Bucs -6
O/U: 49.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, December 20, 2020

Don’t let their 43-point outburst on a bad Raiders defense in Week 12 fool you: The Falcons offense has been stuck in the mud for over a month. They were held to nine points in a 24-9 loss to the Saints in Week 11, mustered only 16 points versus that same New Orleans team two weeks later at home and then they were held to 17 points by the Chargers last Sunday.

While Julio Jones’s nagging injuries and poor play along the offensive line have contributed to Atlanta’s recent offensive woes, Matt Ryan has been the unit’s biggest problem. As I mentioned in the Week 13 recap above, he threw two interceptions in the final four minutes of last Sunday’s game versus the Chargers that cost Atlanta a potential win. He’s also been dreadful in the red zone, which honestly has been a problem for the Atlanta offense since Kyle Shanahan left for San Francisco following the 2016 season. Ryan has always been a franchise quarterback, but Shanahan unleashed something in the veteran that he's yet to repeat under former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and current OC Dirk Koetter.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have their own problems on offense. Tampa’s issues stem from a clash of styles between Tom Brady and Bruce Arians. Those problems are unlikely to be ironed out in a week, but I do see Brady lighting up Atlanta because, well, he always lights up Atlanta. He’s a perfect 6-0 in his career versus the Falcons, which includes the 28-3 comeback in the Super Bowl.

The Bucs have also beat up on bad teams this season, posting a 5-0 record against opponents that entered the game with a losing record—winning by an average margin of 12.8 points per game.

This line is a tad inflated, but I’m laying the six points anyway.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs -6

355 Seattle Seahawks at 356 Washington Football Team

Spead: Seahawks -6
O/U: 44.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 20, 2020

This Washington defense is legit and has dominated for four straight weeks. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Washington Football Team leads the NFL with 58 quarterback pressures and has blitzed at the fourth-highest rate in the league since Week 11. Washington also boasts the second-highest pass rush win rate in that span, beating blocks within 2.5 seconds 61% of the time. That’s insane.