NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Dec 24, 2020

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NFL Week 15 Recap: The Dolphins finished strong versus the Patriots to cover as a small home favorite but the Bucs (-6 at Falcons) and Seahawks (-6 at Washington) won their games by four and five points, respectively, and thus did not cover. I’ll need one of those Kyler Murray or Aaron Rodgers “Hail Mary” passes to hit over 60% of my picks this NFL season, but that still remains the goal.

465 Indianapolis Colts at 466 Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Colts -1.5
O/U: 44.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 27, 2020

The bottom has officially fallen out for the Steelers. Benny Snell Jr. had a nice game on Monday night versus the Bengals, rushing 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown, but the rest of Pittsburgh’s offense is a mess. They’ve been held to under 20 points in four straight games and are averaging just 16.3 points per game (PPG) over that span, which ranks 28th in the NFL.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Steelers rank 27th in Total QBR (41) over their last three games, 30th in yards per game (264.7) and 30th in yards per play (4.3) over that span. They’re also last in rushing yards per contest (51.3) and yards per rush (2.9), as well as last on third-down conversions (27%).

When isolating Ben Roethlisberger’s play of late, he owns the third-lowest adjusted completion rate on deep passes this season. When opponents have no fear of defending the deep pass, they’ll compact the middle of the field and force quarterbacks to make accurate passes in the tightest of windows. Even when Big Ben does make a good throw, his tight ends and receivers have had issues with drops.

Meanwhile, the Colts are headed in the opposite direction. While the Texans gifted them red zone fumbles in both of their matchups with Indy over the past three weeks, the Colts have nevertheless won three straight games. Philip Rivers has thrown at least two touchdown passes and zero interceptions over that span and is now one shy of matching the longest streak of his career.

I often look to back Pittsburgh in an underdog role but we need to trust our eyes. The Steelers are a mess offensively, the key pieces that they’ve lost defensively over the past two months are starting to catch up with them and the Colts still aspirations of winning the AFC South. Give me the team that’s currently playing well, over the one that is staring down a fourth consecutive defeat.

NFL Week 16 ATS Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1.5

453 Denver Broncos at 454 Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3
O/U: 49
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 27, 2020

Whether it was the Patriots in Week 6 or the Dolphins in Week 11, the Broncos have pulled off some decent upsets this season. That said, I’m not going to overthink this one. The Chargers are the better team with the better quarterback. While backing Anthony Lynn scares the hell out of me, it’s not as if L.A. has to cover a significant number. Lynn made some boneheaded decisions two weeks ago and the Chargers still covered as a small favorite versus the Falcons.

Speaking of that “better quarterback,” Justin Herbert has 27 touchdown passes this season, which ties him with Baker Mayfield for most all-time by a rookie. In hindsight, Oregon’s offense didn’t showcase Herbert’s strengths as a passer, namely his willingness and ability to throw vertically. The Ducks had Herbert on the move a lot, but most of his passes were horizontal. Now that he’s in the NFL, he’s airing the football out to the tune of 7.1 yards per attempt (YPA).