NFL Week 17 Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Jan 02, 2021

James Gilbert/Getty Images

NFL Week 16 Recap: The Colts (-1) blew a 21-7 halftime lead in a 28-24 loss to the Steelers and Jared Goff struggled mightily in a 20-8 loss to the Seahawks as a 1.5-point road dog. You might have cashed on the Chargers, who were a 2-point favorite versus the Broncos at kickoff, but my line on Friday was Bolts -3 so that game was a push. Thus, I went 0-2-1 ATS in Week 16.

Goodbye, 2020. Hello, 2021.

119 Atlanta Falcons at 120 Tampa Bay Bucs

Spread: Bucs -6.5
O/U: 50.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 3, 2021

The Falcons, as well as their entire fan base, are a glutton for punishment. You would think after all of those blown leads in the second half of games they wouldn’t keep making things so close in the fourth quarter. Yet, there they were last Sunday, trailing by only a field goal on the home turf of the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, only to lose another nail biter.

While the Falcons are a living, walking meme meant for everyone else’s enjoyment, it has been somewhat impressive they continue to play in so many tight games. While they continue to invent shocking new ways to blow games, you can’t be a total dumpster fire of a team if you seemingly always have a chance to win in the fourth quarter. The Falcons have lost a whopping eight one-possession games this season. If even half of those were wins, they’d be 8-7 and looking at an outside shot at a Wild Card spot in the NFC. If they won all eight, they’d be 12-4 and vying for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

I digress. My point is the Falcons aren’t as terrible as their 4-11 record would indicate and they do play in a ton of close games. The Bucs looked great last Saturday in Detroit, but it wound up being a free win against a depleted Lions team. Let’s not forget Atlanta had a 17-0 half time lead against Tampa just two weeks ago and covered as a 6-point home dog. I’m taking them again on Sunday.

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick: Atlanta Falcons +6.5

105 Green Bay Packers at 106 Chicago Bears

Spread: Packers -4
O/U: 50.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 3, 2021

I don’t know one person willing to lay money with Mitch Trubisky and against Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, yet the point spread for this game dropped from Packers -5 to Packers -4. Something doesn’t add up, making the Bears the ultimate contrarian play of Week 17.