Divisional Round NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Jan 15, 2021

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Wild Card Recap: Wild Card weekend was our first in the week in the red since Week 10—winning just 3-of-7 prop bets. It truly bothered me to lose one prop after the other. Mark Andrews caught four of his six targets, falling short of the five receptions we needed. Tom Brady attempted 40 passes and turned in his third-best passing yardage total (381) of the season, despite playing against a strong Washington defense. I think we need to tread carefully in the future when potentially fading the G.O.A.T. Nyheim Hines had a season-high in rushing yards, but the long runs resulted in him getting pulled off the field numerous times to catch a breather. This led to just three targets and a fat “L” for the prop column—and our accounts. Chase Claypool took care of business on his end in the receiving yards column, but the Steelers got slaughtered. If there was a metric that measured how pure a team was running the Browns would have broken the scale last week. A bad snap for a touchdown on the first play, a tipped interception on the second drive and a tipped interception on the fourth drive. The game was 28-0 with 1:56 left in the first quarter. Even with the insane amount of bad luck, the Steelers still made it close before cowardly punting the ball in Browns territory multiple times. I’m ready to move onto the Divisional Round and make up for last week’s mishaps.

We caught the folks at PointsBet sleeping on Tuesday night as we already got down on Devin Singletary over 38.5 rushing yards. They set the number without considering Zack Moss's season-ending injury last week. Singletary now figures to see almost all of the running back work. The number quickly moved to 42.5 and is now off the board, one of the many reasons it’s important to not only subscribe but turn the alerts on in our Discord chat. To access this, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post.

$100 Instant Match at ThriveFantasy: Use promo code MTL when you sign up today and you will receive an instant match up to $100 on your first deposit! This week, they have $5K guaranteed on Saturday and Sunday as well ($10K total). Be sure to follow @ConnorAllenNFL on Twitter for this week's ThriveFantasy Pick of the Week.

Divisional Round FanDuel Player Prop Bets

Jared Goff Under 216.6 Passing Yards (-110)

Jared Goff was raised in California, went to college at Cal, and has now played his entire NFL career in sunny Los Angeles. In his NFL career, he has played in just four games in under 40-degree weather (current forecast is 31 degrees and feels like 24 with the wind chill). In those games, he passed for 188, 201, 135, and 161 yards. Part of this can be attributed to his minuscule hand size (9 inches), which makes it tougher for quarterbacks in the cold.

This handicap isn’t just about the weather, though. The Packers secondary is ranked sixth in EPA per dropback since Week 9. Goff is also coming off of thumb surgery and wasn’t even healthy enough to start over John Wolford last week. On top of this, Cooper Kupp has hardly practiced this week and has been dealing with knee inflammation.

With a banged-up Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp in the cold at Lambeau field, it’s tough to imagine the Rams airing it out. I expect a run-heavy approach from them which will lead to a low-volume, low-efficiency approach.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Divisional Round DraftKings Player Prop Bets

Aaron Jones Under 3.5 Receptions (-105)

Aaron Jones’s usage in the passing game has fallen off a cliff as of late, going over this number just once in the past six weeks. This game figures to be a slow-paced, low-scoring contest considering the weather and the Rams' desired play I mentioned in Goff’s section. The Rams have also allowed the 10th-fewest receptions to opposing running backs. We have Jones projected for just 2.8 receptions

Risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit