Expert Mock Draft Recap: 12-Team Half-PPR (July 2021)

With only a month left until the return of football, July marks the official start of mock draft season. This is when fantasy gamers research rankings, familiarize themselves with average draft positions (ADPs), compile their own opinions about their favorite NFL players and start to exercise those draft muscles. The best way to do that: participating in fantasy football mock drafts.

Sometimes the issue with mock drafting in mid-July is that the ADP values are inaccurate. If you are able to draft with other actual humans they leave early or don’t take it seriously, giving you inaccurate information. Lucky for you, the 4for4 team was able to wrangle up some of the best and brightest in the fantasy football community for a dry run. Hopefully, the results from this draft can give you an idea of how to prepare for the 2021 slate.

Roster Settings: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX (W/R/T)/1K/1DST + 6 Bench Spots

Draft Participants (in order):

1. Curtis Patrick: RotoViz/@CPatrickNFL
2. Marcas Grant: NFL Fantasy Football/@MarcasG
3. Jennifer Eakins: 4for4/@themondaymommy
4. Ian Hartitz: Pro Football Focus(PFF)/@Ihartitz
5. Adam Huthison: 4for4/@TheRealAdam_H
6. TJ Hernandez: 4for4/@TJHernandez
7. Josh Larky: Rotounderworld/@jlarkytweets
8. Danny Kelly: The Ringer/@DannyBKelly
9. Nicholas You: The Undroppables/@101chalk
10. Stephie Smalls: Fade The Noise(FTN)/@stephiesmallls
11. Alex Johnson: Yards Per Fantasy/@a_johnsonFF
12. Dave Kluge: Football Guys/@DaveKluge

Full drat results available here.

ADP Outliers: Risers

Whenever there is a draft with experts there are bound to be variations in ADP. Each analyst has their own opinions about specific players based on their personal research, data collection or intuition. Here are some of the players that went ahead of their typical spots.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

QB5 Round 5.10 / Consensus ADP QB10 Round 7.06

There was a mini run on quarterbacks in the fifth round which could have influenced this pick, but Jalen Hurts went nearly two rounds earlier than his ADP. Likely trying to avoid missing out on the position, Stephie Smalls selected Hurts. If you’re going to draft a QB early then it should be one that can score with his rushing ability. Last year seven of the top 10 fantasy finishers at quarterback had 50+ rushing attempts. Hurts should meet that threshold.

Mike Williams, Chargers

WR37 Round 7.05 / Consensus ADP WR49 Round 10.10

Hindsight being 20/20, the selection of Mike Williams was a reach. However, in the seventh round swinging for the fences can be managed should you whiff. Betting on Williams to finally break out means you are a Herbert believer, which for the record, I am.

Damien Harris, Patriots

RB30 Round 8.05 / Consensus ADP RB37 Round 9.05

As fantasy managers embark on the forever painful journey to predict the New England backfield it would appear that Damien Harris is the early front-runner. Danny Kelly’s pick is likely a forecast for fantasy drafts come August. Kelly later wrote:

“I am not especially high on Harris and I probably could have waited a bit longer to grab him but with the way my team was shaping up I just wanted to grab the last reasonably-sure-fire “starter” left on the board.”

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

WR24 Round 4.10 / Consensus ADP WR24 Round 6.01

Arguably one of the most exciting rookies to enter the fantasy landscape in 2021 is the rookie WR from LSU, Ja’Marr Chase. 4for4’s very own Jennifer Eakins provided some insight behind taking Chase early.

“Chase is reunited with his college QB Joe Burrow in a high-volume passing offense. There should be plenty of balls to go around with Chase potentially leading in target share. He's 4for4's WR19 in half-PPR formats and I drafted him as WR24 as my third wideout. With receivers flying off the board in this draft and a solid RB1 already on my roster, I wanted to secure my starting trio and move on.”

ADP Outliers: Fallers

It’s inevitable that whenever players go above their ADP that others are going to go later than when they are typically drafted. Here are the players that this group of analysts were fading compared to their consensus ADP.

Adam Thielen, Vikings

WR30 Round 6.06 / Consensus ADP WR19 Round 5.02

Adam Thielen’s dip could be due to the emergence of Justin Jefferson last season or the fact that he will enter this season at age 31, where wide receivers usually see a dip in their production. Other wideouts with upside appear to be more attractive picks amongst this group.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders

RB24 Round 5.12 / Consensus ADP RB21 Round 4.10

Although it would appear that Josh Jacobs remains in the RB2 tier, his ADP continues to slip. In this mock, Jacobs was nearly a sixth-round pick and although Dave Kluge is not a Jacobs fan, even he had to admit that the value was too good to pass on.

Everyone is going to insta-hate my team for the Josh Jacobs pick.



But at 5.12?! Are you guys kidding me? The hate has gone too far.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 8, 2021

Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, Buccaneers

Fournette RB31 Round 8.08 / Consensus ADP RB29 Round 7.08

Jones RB39 Round 9.12 / Consensus ADP RB34 Round 8.12

When there is no clear indication of who is going to be the lead Buccaneer running back, the best idea may be to fade both. Amongst this group, there did not appear to be any strong conviction on either, which resulted in both going a full round later their ADP. If you do not have strong feelings for either Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones, it might be best to wait for whoever is available later between the two.

David Johnson, Texans

RB48 Round 12.05 / Consensus ADP RB36 Round 9.02

The player of note that fell the farthest in this mock draft was Houston Texans running back David Johnson. In most leagues, fantasy gamers are viewing DJ as his productive former self and the lead back in Houston—for this group that did not influence anyone. At least not until the 12th round.

Robust Running Back

Like most fantasy football drafts, running backs were highly coveted and their dominance was noticeable early on in this mock draft. Ten of the first 12 picks were running backs and by the end of the third round, more than 50% of the players picked were running backs. Additionally, seven of the 12 teams had at least two RBs on their roster by the third round. This tells us two things. If you’re someone that favors this position you need to use your early picks to fill it. However, if you’re a risk-taker or have your eye on some later-round sleepers, you could take advantage of the RB craze and gain advantages at other positions.

Quarterback Sweet Spot

Although most websites and fantasy outlets promote the theory of waiting on a quarterback, especially where you only start one, in this mock draft the fifth round was a quarterback hotspot that saw a mini-run on the position. Five passers were selected in this round. Typically in leagues of this caliber, it is rare to see that many QBs selected, however, your home leagues could see something similar. There is a clear top tier of quarterbacks that includes Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray.

As I mentioned earlier, mobile quarterbacks that can score fantasy points by tucking the ball and running are more consistent fantasy producers and usually yield high weekly finishes, which is why three of the four aforementioned QBs were selected as such. Jackson, Allen and Murray all have averaged over 100 rushing attempts the last two seasons. It’s clear that the first four quarterbacks taken have separated themselves from the pack and over a positional advantage that warrants an early pick. Don’t be afraid to select one in the middle rounds if your heart desires.

Rookie Trends

Usually after the NFL Draft there is a period of time where “rookie fever” overtakes fantasy gamers and as a result, there is a bump in rookies selected. After a cooling period, we see a return to normal, and ADPs straighten out. This mock draft had 19 rookies picked, two more than 4for4’s May Mock Draft which took place right after the NFL Draft.

Surprisingly, Trevor Lawerence, the first overall pick in the NFL draft, was not selected by any team in this mock draft. Of the rookies that were picked in both 4for4 mock drafts, Najee Harris (2.04), Travis Etienne (5.11), Trey Sermon (7.07) DeVonta Smith (6.07), Jaylen Waddle (7.06), Elijah Moore (9.05), Rondale Moore (10.08), and Rashad Bateman (10.01) all were picked a full round (or more) earlier than the May Mock Draft. If anything, the rookie excitement has not simmered. Instead, as roles become more clear in training camp, expectations are increasing.

This trend is understandable given past results. In 2019 three rookie running backs finished inside the top-24 (RB2). 2020 was even better with three rookies in the top-12 (RB1) and another three in the top-24 (RB2). For wide receivers, it has been a little more difficult to break into the upper tiers but they have been productive with four in the top-36 (WR3) in 2019. 2020 had five of their own. Rookie players have been able to be impactful fantasy producers early in their careers.

Wrapping Up the Draft

While everyone has their own opinion on players, there were a select few that were above and below their typical ADP. For whatever it’s worth, certain analysts valued Jalen Hurts, Damien Harris, Mike Williams and Ja’Marr Chase above consensus while others like Adam Thielen, Josh Jacobs, David Johnson and the pair of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournettee were left to fall.

Running backs remain king in fantasy football, at least in this mock draft. Nineteen running backs were picked in the first three rounds, with many teams selecting at least two by the end of the third round. If you don’t plan on taking at least one RB in the first three rounds of the fantasy draft, you could be left with a big hole to fill.

There is a clear top-tier of fantasy quarterbacks which includes Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. While in the past fantasy managers have waited for the late-round QB, this draft had five who were picked in the fifth round. If you want one of these to be your fantasy QB you cannot be afraid to reach or you might be on the wrong end of a positional run.

Rookie players remain the hip trend and the ADP for most has increased since 4for4’s last mock draft in May. Research from the past two seasons has shown that rookies can be impactful fantasy contributors, so don’t shy away just because of the unknown. There is potential here that could put your fantasy team over the top.